Golden Globes Cancelled: This Is Going To Hurt

By Katey Rich

Variety has an article today that takes on a topic I swear I was about to address myself: Exactly how hard is the truncated Golden Globes ceremony going to hit the movie industry? I don't mean the catering businesses and limo drivers and everyone who won't be working Sunday night, though some estimates claim that's going to cost the Los Angeles economy up to $100 million. I'm talking about the movies themselves, the ones with the clips we'd normally be seeing, the stars we'd normally be hearing, and the attention that normally comes from the Golden Globes extravaganza.

Recent history points to plenty of examples of a movie building up its box office steam as a direct result of a Golden Globe win, or even a nomination. Variety mentions The Queen, which expanded to over 1,000 theatres after Helen Mirren picked up her Golden Globe for her leading role. The wider release resulted in a 206% jump in revenue, and The Queen pulled in a solid $1 million each weekend through the Oscars. An example from the same year is The Last King of Scotland, which was playing in only four theatres the weekend Forest Whitaker accepted his Golden Globe. The movie that had barely played 100 theatres right after it was released soon expanded to nearly 500 locations, and saw a 9,412% box office jump that gave it a $1 million weekend for the first time in its run.

The wins can be particularly important for the smaller movies that the Globes audience might otherwise ignore, especially those with pesky subtitles. Letters from Iwo Jima won the Best Foreign Language Globe on its way to getting a Best Picture nomination, and was able to add 300+ theatres after its win for a 467% boost in box office. Paradise Now, the Palestinian drama that won the year before, played on a much smaller level but still got a 61% jump in box office from adding 8 theatres the weekend after its win.

Conventional wisdom has it that every Globe winner can reap box-office rewards, but for the juggernauts that doesn't always hold true. Dreamgirls was just beginning its wide expansion when it won the Globe for Best Comedy or Musical last year, but even with wins for Jennifer Hudson and Eddie Murphy as well, it couldn't increase business from an added 300 theatres. Same goes for Syriana, which had been playing wide and likely found all the audience it would get when George Clooney took home Best Supporting Actor; 1,000 added after the Globes did little to boost the box office. For something like The Departed, on the other hand, which had opened months earlier and already earned over $100 million, a second go-round after the Globes opened it up to another wide audience that missed it the first time around. It added 1,000 theatres in late January and managed another $5 million before the Oscars came around.

This year the only film in competition with box office close to that of The Departed is American Gangster, which is by no means a favorite for any of the three categories in which it's nominated and will probably continue wrapping up its run after the ceremony. That means there are a lot of indies out there that need the attention the Globes can give, particularly those that have just opened. If There Will Be Blood walks away with Best Picture Drama, for example (unlikely, but play along), it could finally get consideration from the thousands, if not millions, of moviegoers who considered it too dark, too pretentious, too long, etc. Same goes for No Country for Old Men, which already had its chance at a marginally wide release but hasn't cracked $50 million at the box office yet.

The Globes seem most important for movies like The Great Debaters, a story with wide appeal that has still failed to find a major audience (it hasn't yet cracked the top ten). Atonement, too, the leader in nominations, could build on its current re-expansion efforts by reminding everyone that it's not just male-driven, violent, depressing movies out there this year.

But these, of course, are all hypotheticals. Doubtlessly people will tune in to the "press conference" that the Globes have become this year, but it doesn't hold nearly the appeal, especially since the stars are likely to not show up at all. There will be press coverage of the winners, as always, and all the ads will tack on "Golden Globe winner!" when appropriate, but the watercooler buzz of who-wore-what and who-said-what will be totally absent. Of course people will still go to the movies, and the people who take the awards seriously will still seek out the winners, as they always have. But the people who needed to see one more clip of No Country for Old Men to be reminded that they still really want to see it will fall by the wayside.

I try to think back to myself in high school, when I drove an hour to see In the Bedroom because it was nominated for awards. Would I have known about all this stuff if there weren't a ceremony? Probably. Would it have sunk in? Probably not. Whether or not it's shooting itself in the foot, the WGA has successfully sent Hollywood off the rails for the Oscar season, likely leaving us with awards no one will remember and awards hopefuls no one will see. It will remain the lonely band of critics banging the drum for this film or the next, while the rest of America moves on, going out to see Cloverfield and 27 Dresses, provided they make it out at all.

Thanks to Box Office Mojo for all of the box office statistics cited in this article.