By Sarah Sluis
Oscar detectives have a new lead: the Directors Guild and the Producers Guild announced their
nominations for Best Picture. They matched, five for five. Both guilds nominated The Dark Knight, Frost/Nixon, Slumdog Millionaire, Milk, and The Curious Case of Benjamin Button for their top films. My editor Kevin Lally, for one, thinks they're right on, and that these films represent the likely Academy selections this year. But will Oscar voters agree?
Those in the Academy still have four days to cast their ballot for the nominees--January 12th. Will they be influenced by the recognition these five films have already received, and add a dark horse (Slumdog Millionaire) to their nominations? Will those reluctant to cast a ballot for a comic book film change their mind?
The DGA is known for correctly predicting the Best Director award, and the Risky Business Blog points out that the demographics, and tastes, of the DGA closely align with that of the Academy, making the rest of their nominations (including Best Picture) harbingers of the Academy's top five. From a budget/release pattern perspective, the five films are preternaturally balanced: two are big-budgeted, wide releases, one (Slumdog) has followed a specialty-to-moderate release pattern, with Milk coming up just behind. Frost/Nixon, with the smallest theatrical release, is holding up last place. Not having seen it myself, its small scope (what better place to watch a film about a TV interview than a TV, right?) makes it seem like the kind of film that will receive heavy DVD rentals after generating some awards publicity.
Aside from The Dark Knight, all five of these films have a historical and/or lifespan focus--perhaps appealing to older voters? While I appreciate grand and historical films as much as the next person, the 70's era settings of Milk and Frost/Nixon relive events many Academy voters were there to experience. This is also why Doubt, set the year after JFK's assassination (1964), might still have a chance.
The Academy will release its nominations in two weeks--until then, we'll continue to speculate.
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