Are ticket pre-sales turning 'opening weekend' into 'opening day?'

By Sarah Sluis

It used to be that opening weekend would predict a movie's success. But increasingly, fan-driven movies are defined by their opening day--from Harry Potter to Twilight, many films now see ticket sales drop significantly the second day of their release. Last weekend's release of Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part I sold $61 million worth of tickets on Friday, then dropped 38% to $38 million by Saturday. In the most extreme example, this summer's The Twilight Saga: Eclipse fell a staggering 68% in its second day, from $68 million on Wednesday to $24 million on Thursday. (A caveat: the first two Twilight films released on Fridays in November, and dropped in the 40% range on their second day. Eclipse's fall was accelerated because it released on a Wednesday during summer break, when kids presumably were free to attend both midnight and weekday screenings.)

The latest movie to follow such a trend is Justin Bieber's concert film, Never Say Never, (trailer) which sold 26,000 out of 100,000 available tickets for a February 9th sneak preview in twelve hours. The ticket promotion (which included tchotchkes like a glow-in-the-dark lightstick and special 3D glasses) dovetails nicely into the marketing money being poured into the release of Bieber's new album, which partially explains why tickets are being sold four months ahead of time. Though 26,000 tickets actually isn't a lot (at the more average price of $12 a ticket, it's just $312,000), these tickets are being sold for the astronomical price of $30, which means a sellout of the preview alone could yield $3 million.

This kind of promotion--with its "one day" emphasis and the inclusion of special gifts--doesn't feel like a typical film release. It falls a little more toward the side of alternative programming, which makes films "events." While movie theatres have tried (successfully, I believe) to capture viewers with technological bells and whistles like 3D and IMAX, event-based promotions use a more old-fashioned method, creating a "must-see" event the way live performance theatres and concerts do--by making them seem like time-sensitive, unique experiences, not something that will feel exactly the same if you catch it on a Tuesday night, because that's what's playing at 7pm. As promotions like these catch on, they have the potential to transform what it means to go to the movies.