‘Neighbors’ may swing past ‘Spider-Man’

Between positive word-of-mouth and largely favorable reviews (76 percent fresh on Rotten Tomatoes), the Universal release Neighbors is poised to earn the top spot at the box office this weekend. Holdover The Amazing Spider-Man 2 is the only film that could pose a significant threat to the Seth Rogen and Zac Efron comedy, but, given tepid responses from audiences and critics alike, Spidey seems fated to suffer a steep dropoff from the $92 million it earned last weekend. It should gross between $35 and $40 million.

Interestingly, pundits and Universal differ greatly in their expectations for Neighbors. The latter believes its film is tracking in the mid $20-million range, while industry insiders spy an opening weekend gross of $40 million or more. These pundits base their claim on data from Fandango, according to which advance ticket sales for the film are at their highest for an R-rated comedy since 2012’s Ted, which opened to $54 million. So far, 2014 has been good to distributor Universal, which has already seen three of its movies open at No. 1: Ride Along, Lone Survivor and Non-Stop.

Another major release, the animated kids film Legends of Oz: Dorothy’s Return, also opens today. The movie may boast some big-name talent, including the vocal stylings of Martin Short, Bernadette Peters, and “Glee’s” Leah Michelle in the titular role, but reviews have been terrible and previews for the flick have been greeted with dismissals of “cheap-looking.” Still, it’s been a few weeks since the last family film, Rio 2, opened, so there’s certainly a niche to be filled. Oz could gross around $5 or $6 million.

Mom’s Night Out is one of two new specialty releases bowing this weekend, along with Jon Favreau’s Chef. Out targets the same Christian or faith-based crowd that made successes of recent films Son of God, God’s Not Dead and Heaven is For Real. Also, timing is everything: Mother’s Day is this coming Sunday. The bar for the film is set between $6 and $7 million.

Chef is opening in limited release, screening in just six locations in NYC and LA. Critics like the film (it’s 80 percent fresh on RT) that is on track to earn a solid per-theatre average of roughly $30,000.