Sequels square off at weekend b.o.

Most weekends, it’s fairly easy to predict which new release will claim the No. 1 spot at the box office. This weekend, however, all bets are off. Many believe the sequel to hit kids’ film How to Train Your Dragon, the simply titled How to Train Your Dragon 2, will do the best business. The first Dragon opened to $43.7 million in spring of 2010, and went on to earn the most money ($217.6 million) of any DreamWorks animated film outside of the Shrek franchise. It was well-reviewed (98 percent fresh on Rotten Tomatoes) and managed to hold well for the several weeks it screened in theatres. Thus, given the popularity of its characters, it’s likely Dragon 2 will match if not beat its predecessor’s opening figure. Add the current b.o. dearth of family offerings (Maleficent may be too scary for the littlest viewers, not to mention too girl-centric for the boys), the positive reviews, and an established fan base, and How to Train Your Dragon 2 could be looking at a $50 or $60-odd million opening, as well as a first-place standing.

This is all well and good, until you consider those factors boosting 22 Jump Street’s chance at the coveted title of b.o. champ. The sequel to 21 Jump Street has also received positive reviews (85 percent fresh), has its own dedicated fan base, and is likewise facing a theatrical landscape in which its genre, comedy, is noticeably lacking in competitors (Neighbors is tapering off, and A Million Ways to Die in the West has suffered a twofold death: at the hands of both critics and fans). Additionally, stars Channing Tatum and Jonah Hill have each appeared in successful movies since 21 Jump Street proved a hit in spring of 2012: Tatum in Magic Mike and Hill in the Oscar-nominated The Wolf of Wall Street. Street is currently tracking stronger than Neighbors, which opened to $49 million last month. Sony is predicting $50 million for the film, which is roughly on par with Fox’s estimate for How to Train Your Dragon 2.

Regardless of which title manages to pull out ahead, if both movies gross more than $50 million, it will only be the fourth time ever a pair of films has simultaneously opened so well. The last two features to open at $50 million or more over the same weekend were Monsters University and World War Z.