'Ice Age 3' and 'Public Enemies' battle with 'Transformers'

By Sarah Sluis

Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs and Public Enemies will be opening in some rough waters. Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen has made the biggest splash of the year, earning some $200 million in its first five days. Young teens turned out in force for the CGI action, but critics panned the movie, making it unlikely to have the legs of a film like The Dark Knight. This weekend, everyone's wondering how much Transformers will drop off. A 50% plus drop for Transformers could be enough for Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs to come in at number one.

The first two Ice Age films opened at $46 and $68 million, though in the less lucrative--and competitive--spring break time slots. It seems reasonable that Ice Age 3 should come in around its second film total, especially given the added holiday weekend boost. Also adding to the film's potential profitability are over 1,000 3D screens. However, it's still won't be playing on as many screens as Transformers 2. Ice Age 3 will open on 3,993 screens today, and add another 100 on Friday, but that's still less than Transformers' current 4,224 screens.

Public Enemies is my pick for the #3 spot. Michael Mann's last film, Miami Vice, opened in the heat of the summertime at $25 million (and #1). The film's R rating and violence will subtract some viewers during this family-friendly weekend, making me believe it will play third. Plus, Mann is not known as a big "opener" of films, but as someone who can create a film that will play for multiple weekends.

Like most critics who saw Transformers, I can't recommend it. Not even a jumbo bag of buttery popcorn can redeem its awfulness. Both Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs and Public Enemies are receiving a warmer reception than Transformers 2. For Ice Age 3, the compliments are rather tepid. Our Michael Rechtshaffen points out that "IA3 will draw families looking to fill the gap between Up and the July 24 arrival of Disney's G-Force, " but can't really recommend anything else about it. Likewise, The New York Times' A.O. Scott predicts that "families who have recovered from the trauma of the Transformers sequel are unlikely to avoid this tired, loud little sequel over the coming holiday weekend," but complains at length about the premise, which involves dinosaurs living underground, below the ice.

As for Public Enemies, critics have praised its lush costuming, use of HD cameras, and the performances of Johnny Depp and Marion Cotillard. There's a sense that some soul is missing, that Mann might hold you at a distance, from comments like "Public Enemies re-creates clothes, but doesn't fully fashion the man who wore them" from Entertainment Weekly, and NY Times' Manohla Dargis' multiple mentions of "ambivalence" and closing pronouncement that "If [Mann] doesn't fully succeed, it's because he knows that the gangster's rakish smile is at once a fiction of cinema and one of its great, irresistible lies."

On Monday, we'll see how the five days of Ice Age 3 and Public Enemies fared against the box-office behemoth Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen.