Can Blu fly past the Captain?

Rio 2 and Captain America: The Winter Soldier will both vie for the top slot at the box office this Friday-Sunday. The former is one of the weekend’s new major releases and the follow-up to the popular Rio, an animated kids’ film about a pair of endangered macaws (voiced by Jesse Eisenberg and Anne Hathaway).  When it opened in spring of 2011, Rio grossed almost $40 million. Its successor is currently tracking in the high-$30-to-low-$40-millions range, prompting many pundits to speculate it should match, possibly even better, the original. If either proves to be the case, Rio 2 will give holdover Captain America: The Winter Soldier a run for its sky-high pile of dough. Given positive critical reviews and smiling word-of-mouth, The Winter Soldier is expected to hold well. However, comic book movies often plummet their second weekend in theatres – Iron Man 3 dipped 58 percent, for example – so the title of Weekend’s Top Earner is really up for grabs.

Beginning today and with a slightly smaller platform than Rio 2, which opens in 3,948 locations, the latest sports film to star Kevin Costner, Draft Day, will screen in 2,781 theatres. The movie gives a fictionalized behind-the-scenes look at the unpublicized maneuvering that takes place in the lead-up to the NFL draft. Costner is firmly ensconced in familiar territory here, playing the American underdog everyman fighting for good amidst the corrupt milieu of an American sports industry. Field of Dreams, Bull Durham and Tin Cup are among Costner’s best-loved movies, and Draft Day looks to repeat the old-fashioned though nonetheless satisfying story arc characteristic of those films. Will audiences go for Costner’s brand of comfort? Reviews for Draft Day aren’t great, and recent sports movies haven’t opened very strong: Moneyball, which is basically the baseball version of Day, had great buzz going for it and still only managed to rake in $19.5 million over its opening weekend. Distributor Lionsgate believes Draft Day will gross in the low teens.

The last new major release to open this weekend is also the first horror offering since January’s Devil’s Due. Oculus will screen in 2,648 theatres. The flick has producer Jason Blum (the Paranormal Activity movies) behind it, and has been pretty well reviewed, though box-office expectations are modest. Returns around $11 or $12 million would be considered solid.

Finally, the specialty realm has two new offerings of its own in Joe, starring Nicolas Cage and directed by cult favorite David Gordon Green, and Cuban Fury, a salsa comedy starring Nick Frost and Rashida Jones. The latter is playing in 79 theatres while the former will start off its B.O. run in 48 locations.

Can the Captain break an April record?

Captain America: The Winter Soldier flies into 3,938 theatres today, by all indications readying itself for quite the stunt landing. This latest installment in the increasingly crowded Marvel cinematic universe has already broken the record for most advance tickets sold, according to Fandango. Overseas, the film has grossed more than $100 million.

Can Captain America break $100 million at the domestic box office this weekend? Between advance sales and positive reviews (87 percent fresh on Rotten Tomatoes) it’s certainly possible, although most pundits are predicting slightly lower returns, in the still-magnificent $80-$90 million range. The Winter Soldier has a few things going for it: The return of Avengers crossover characters Nick Fury (Samuel L. Jackson) and Black Widow (Scarlett Johansson) as well as an association with the familiar S.H.I.E.L.D. organization (itself the subject of a TV series – media hybridity at its best), and the introduction of a new hero, Falcon (Anthony Mackie). The WWII period setting that dominated much of the first film has been swapped in favor of a contemporary Washington, D.C., backdrop. An ultra-modern conflict involving wiretapping, national security, and that thin line between necessary protection and unlawful invasion of privacy also lends the movie a topical boost. Critics certainly like it. All in all, Captain America: The Winter Soldier is poised to set a new April record. (Fast Five currently holds the title of Strongest April Debut, having opened to $86.2 million in 2011.)

The much delayed Halle Berry vehicle, Frankie and Alice, also opens this weekend in limited release. The movie has been ready and yet collecting dust on the shelves since 2010, even though Berry won an award for her portrayal of a woman suffering from multiple-personality disorder that year. From distributor Freestyle Releasing, Frankie and Alice changed hands to current distributor Code Black, which is a division of Lionsgate.  Even given the draw of Berry’s name, it’s unlikely Frankie and Alice will earn more than $500,000.

Holdovers Noah and Divergent should round out the weekend’s top three just behind Captain America: The Winter Soldier.

'Noah’ to flood theatres

Will all the controversy and all the press awarded the controversy reap dividends at the box office this weekend? That’s the question facing Darren Aronofsky’s Noah. The director’s Biblical epic (action movie? Disaster flick? Faith-based offering? The latter seems the most unlikely…) opens in 3,500 theatres today. The familiar story of a man, a flood, and a host of animals boasts a trio of recognizable names: Jennifer Connelly, who is aces at playing crazy Russell Crowe’s supportive wife; Emma Watson; and of course, Crowe himself. Aronofsky, who directed 2010’s Academy Award-winning Black Swan, also brings a formidable fanbase to the table. All told, Paramount is expecting returns to tally out to between $30 and $33 million. Noah is already performing well overseas, in South Korea and Mexico specifically, where it bowed last week. Even if the movie fails to gain traction in the United States, international sales should help keep it out of the red.

Cesar Chavez, about the life and work of the iconic Mexican civil-rights activist, and Sabotage, starring the iconic (of a different sort) Arnold Schwarzenegger, also open this weekend, though neither is expected to do boffo business. Playing in 2,486 locations, the latter is Schwarzenegger’s most recent attempt at a big-screen comeback. His last two efforts, 2013's The Last Stand and Escape Plan, barely made a splash at the box office and didn’t do much to revive his acting career. With poor reviews (21 percent rotten on Rotten Tomatoes) and a rote drug-cartel-and-kidnapping plotline, it would be surprising if Sabotage proved the hit Arnold has been waiting for. Expect an opening weekend gross of under $10 million.

Cesar Chavez has also received poor reviews (37 percent rotten), however, a strong Hispanic turnout could propel the film to modest success. Opening in 644 locations, Chavez could pull in as much as, or even more than, $5 million.

Building momentum like a snowball racing down one of those mountains framing The Grand Budapest Hotel, Wes Anderson’s specialty hit expands yet again this weekend, to 1,000 theatres. Jason Bateman’s Bad Words finally gets its wide release (800 theatres) today, but having disappointed in limited release the past two weekends, expectations for the movie’s broader national performance are low.

‘Divergent’ to dive into first place

Young adult novel adaptation Divergent is tracking strong among advanced ticket sales and should easily win the weekend’s top spot. Right now, the film accounts for 80 percent of weekend sales, according to Fandango. Lionsgate/Summit is clearly hoping for another successful franchise in the vein of its Twilight and Hunger Games series. Author Veronica Roth’s trilogy does have a large and devoted fanbase, and Divergent the film apparently has the most Instagram followers ever for a movie. However, mega or even sustained success largely depends upon Divergent’s ability to lure viewers who are unfamiliar with the books. If that’s the case, the film might be in trouble. Roundly poor reviews (38 percent rotten on Rotten Tomatoes) will certainly deter some would-be audience members. Opening weekend should prove very strong, $60 million or so, propelled by the power of the literary faithful. How well Divergent holds from there on out, however, is anyone’s guess.

If Divergent is practically assured first-place standing this weekend, then Muppets Most Wanted will clock in at No. 2.  The follow-up to 2011’s reboot The Muppets opens in 3,194 theatres today. It’s received fairly positive reviews (77 percent fresh on Rotten Tomatoes) and, though it doesn’t include The Muppets stars Amy Adams and Jason Segel, it does have Tina Fey as well as Ricky Gervais and Ty Burrell to act as major draws. Whether that’s enough, and whether or not families are ready to move on from Mr. Peabody & Sherman, will largely determine whether this weekend’s second-place champion crosses $25 million.

Smaller releases bowing today include the faith-based film God’s Not Dead (780 theatres), Blood Ties (28 theatres) and Nymph()maniac Vol. 1 (24 theatres). Although Kirk Cameron’s Fireproof was something of a surprise hit in 2008, opening to $6.8 million, more recent Christian films, including The Grace Card, The Ultimate Gift and To Save a Life, opened much softer, earning between $1 and $2 million. In all likelihood, God’s Not Dead will also rake in a smaller pile of earnings, as will Blood Ties, which, for all its star-studded cast (Clive Owen, Billy Crudup, Mila Kunis, Zoe Saldana, Marion Cotillard) has been given little to no exposure and received mostly negative reviews. Nymph()maniac is a tougher one to call: Prurient interest in its subject could drive sales, but the movie has also been available on VOD for several weeks. Some pundits are speculating this is the type of film people are more comfortable watching in their homes, in which case, expect a fairly modest opening for this latest from Lars von Trier.

Finally, specialty juggernaut (funny, considering the director’s thing for miniatures) The Grand Budapest Hotel expands to 304 locations today, and Jason Bateman’s Bad Words screens in 87. The latter opens wide next weekend, on Friday, March 28.

‘Need for Speed’ to cruise into 1st place

Disney is expecting modest returns in the low-to-mid $20 millions for videogame adaptation Need for Speed this weekend, but those earnings should still be enough to propel the Aaron Paul star vehicle (pun not intended, we promise) to first place. The film has received terrible reviews (23 percent on Rotten Tomatoes), not to mention, movies based on or inspired by videogames do not have a great track record of success (see: Max Payne, Doom). Nonetheless, the fanboy fan-base is a faithful one, and Aaron Paul, fresh off the final season of "Breaking Bad," will no doubt draw many fans in his own right.

Tyler Perry’s Single Moms Club also opens wide this weekend. However, it will probably not take second place, or even third place. Those slots should go to holdovers Mr. Peabody & Sherman and 300: Rise of an Empire. Both films are expected to gross in the high-teens, while Club is tracking a little softer, in the mid-teens. Incredibly, Single Moms Club will mark director Tyler Perry’s 15^th movie since 2006. Nine of those films debuted to $20 million or more, although most featured Perry’s Madea character or opened over Easter weekend. Club fits neither criterion.

TV cult favorite Veronica Mars finally hits the big screen today. After a successful Kickstarter campaign, in which fans raised over $5 million, Mars will screen in 291 locations and via VOD. If everyone who contributed to the Kickstarter fund opts to see the movie in theatres, Veronica Mars could earn upwards of $2 million.

Ahead of its wide release next weekend, Jason Bateman’s feature directorial debut Bad Words opens in six locations in NY and LA. It will probably not beat or even meet the record-breaking per-screen average Wes Anderson’s Grand Budapest Hotel achieved last weekend, although it may still enjoy a solid opening. As for Hotel, the feature expands to 66 locations and will likely take in $2 million or so.

‘Rise of an Empire’ to dwarf ‘Mr. Peabody & Sherman’

Seven years ago, CGI sword-and-sandals epic 300 took the box office by surprise when it opened to a wonderful $70 million. The Zach Snyder film, which set the March record for best opening weekend, would go on to earn over $456 million worldwide. 300: Rise of an Empire isn’t exactly a sequel, per se – interestingly, it covers the same span of time as the first movie – but, with a mostly new cast and a different angle on the Greek-Spartan conflict, it’s certainly a follow-up. The question is, will it match the debut of its predecessor? Unlikely. The novelty of Snyder’s signature style has worn off (although Snyder worked on the screenplay, commercials director Noam Murro helmed Rise of an Empire), as has 300’s mix of togas and action; thanks to the popularity of the first film, we’ve seen several copycut productions and spoofs since 2007. Nonetheless, 300: Rise of an Empire is still tracking strong. According to Fandango, the movie is out-selling G.I. Joe: Retaliation in pre-sales, which bodes well for a solid opening: G.I. Joe opened to $40.5 million last March. Also, let’s not forget, Rise of an Empire is screening in 58 markets overseas. Even if it fails to match 300 domestically, it could out-perform its predecessor internationally.

Gunning for second place, DreamWorks production Mr. Peabody & Sherman also opens wide this weekend. March has historically been kind to the animation studio: The Croods opened to $43.6 million in 2013 while How to Train Your Dragon bowed to $43.7 million in 2010. Many pundits are unsure, however, how Mr. Peabody & Sherman will perform. DreamWorks' last two productions, Rise of the Guardians and Turbo, failed to meet expectations and even lost money.  Sherman has so far garnered mixed reviews, and it faces stiff competition from the still-going-strong The Lego Movie. Fandango has the film tracking stronger than Cloudy With a Chance of Meatballs 2, which opened to $34 million this past September. 20^th Century Fox, however, is only expecting $25 to $30 million in opening-weekend business.

For specialty devotees, the weekend’s big release comes in the form of Wes Anderson’s latest, The Grand Budapest Hotel. Great reviews and a strong cast – Ralph Fiennes, Saoirse Ronan, Tilda Swinton, Adrien Brody, Jeff Goldblum, and cameos by Anderson stalwarts Bill Murray and Owen Wilson – should propel the film to high returns. Think somewhere south of his roundly loved Moonrise Kingdom, which scored the third-best per-theatre average for a live action film when it opened in 2012, but possibly north of Fantastic Mr. Fox (2009) and The Life Aquatic of Steve Zissou (2004), both of which opened in the low $20 millions.

Overall, the weekend’s box-office breakdown should look something like this:

1. 300: Rise of an Empire


2. Mr. Peabody & Sherman


3. Non-Stop


4. Son of God


5. The Lego Movie

‘Lego’ to abdicate in favor of Liam – or the ‘Son of God’

The Lego Movie’s successful reign at the top of the box office is poised to come to an end this weekend, as two new releases featuring high-profile men – ageless action star Liam Neeson and timeless figure of fascination Jesus Christ, played by Portuguese actor Diogo Morgado – open wide. While most pundits agree Lego will take third place to both Non-Stop and Son of God, they’re less sure which of the latter will earn the top spot.

On the one hand, Non-Stop is the latest suspense thriller to feature Liam Neeson with a gun, kicking butt but not so much bothering to take names, later or otherwise. This persona has resonated with movie-goers, who made a hit out of the film that featured Neeson’s breakout action role, 2008’s Taken, and showed up in solid numbers to Unknown (2011) and The Grey (2011), both of which opened to roughly $20 million. Given the strong marketing push behind Non-Stop, which included many commercials throughout the winter Olympics, not to mention its bid for female patronage in the form of actresses Michelle Dockery (“Downton Abbey’s” Lady Mary) and Best Supporting Actress nominee Lupita Nyong’o (12 Years a Slave), the movie’s opening could well exceed Neeson’s last two films. Twenty-five million dollars or more seems likely.

But then we have wild card Son of God. Will viewers pay to see footage they could get, and most likely have already seen, for free on the History Channel? The film is a repurposing of TV’s “The Bible” mini-series produced by Mark Burnett and his wife Roma Downey, who also plays the Virgin Mary. It’s a good question, though given advance ticket sales (according to Fandango, as of yesterday morning Son of God accounted for 40 percent of pre-sales) the answer may very well be, yes, they will. Box Office Mojo used Pew Research Group data to do a series of nifty calculations regarding the country’s Christians, God’s target demographic (an unintentionally Meta phrase). According to the site, over 80 million Americans attend Christian services each week. If only five percent of that church-going population buys tickets to Son of God, the movie will open to upwards of $30 million. This also seems likely.

Three other releases opening wide or expanding today include Miyazaki’s The Wind Rises, which performed well in limited release last weekend (it will screen in 496 theatres this weekend); Russia’s first movie shot in IMAX 3D, Stalingrad (opening in 308 IMAX locations); and Repentance, starring Forest Whitaker and Anthony Mackie (152 theatres). An extended cut of Anchorman 2: The Legend Continues will also screen in 1,317 locations. Apparently, this lengthier version features 763 new jokes, a gimmick that will likely appeal to only the most diehard of Ron Burgundy devotees. Receipts should tally out to around or under $2 million.

Happy Oscar weekend!

 

‘Lego’ to bury ‘Pompeii’

Two major releases, disaster epic Pompeii and the latest spy thriller from writer-producer Luc Besson, 3 Days to Kill, may be opening wide today, but neither action flick is any match for a group of special toys. Once again, The Lego Movie is expected to win the weekend. Many pundits have placed their bets on Pompeii taking second place with $12 or $15 million. If those expectations bear out, it would make for an underwhelming debut, considering the CGI-laden movie had a production value of around $100 million. Studio execs are hoping Pompeii, which was financed by the German company Constantin Films, will earn most of its money overseas.

3 Days to Kill is also tracking soft, but luckily, the film directed by McG and starring Kevin Costner as an aging operative struggling to balance family time with the demands of his job, only cost $28 million to make. The movie’s father angle is similar to Besson’s successful Taken films, though no one is expecting Kill to reach the same box-office highs of those unnervingly fun Liam Neeson vehicles. Instead, 3 Days to Kill should pull in around $12 million.

The specialty division welcomes two new releases of its own this weekend: In Secret, an adaptation of Emile Zola's novel Thérèse Raquin starring Elizabeth Olsen and Oscar Isaac; and The Wind Rises, the latest and last animated film from Japan’s beloved Hayao Miyazaki. In Secret hasn’t been given much of a marketing push, and reviews have been mixed to poor (right now, the movie is tracking 49 percent rotten on Rotten Tomatoes). The Wind Rises, on the other hand, has the heft of the Miyazaki name behind it, not to mention the clout of an Oscar nomination for Best Animated Film. Controversy surrounding the movie’s handling of Japanese involvement in WWII may also spur viewer interest. In Secret probably won’t earn more than $1 million from its 266 locations, but expect The Wind Rises, playing in 21 theatres, to make a solid showing.

Weekend box office to host battle of the remakes

As VH1 would say: I love the ‘80s. Or rather, Hollywood does, rolling out three remakes of films that were popular 30-odd years ago. Even with RoboCop, About Last Night, and Endless Love stacking the bill, however, general consensus has last weekend’s champion, The Lego Movie, once again taking first place.

About Last Night will likely land just behind Lego, with Sony predicting returns somewhere in the mid-20 millions. It’s a romance flick opening on Valentine’s Day, and one that boasts a marquee actor who has already proven his box-office worth with films like Think Like a Man and the recent hit Ride Along, Kevin Hart. Both of which factors have led some pundits to believe Sony’s expectations are a little low. Think Like A Man, for example, opened to $33.6 million in 2012. Chances are good About Last Night will meet, if not exceed, that bar.

RoboCop opened a few days ahead of the weekend this past Wednesday night. Sony had predicted a debut of roughly $35 million for the Wednesday-Monday spread, but RoboCop got off to a rough start on Wednesday night, raking in just $2.8 million. Granted, much of the country was battling poor weather conditions, but underwhelming reviews and diehard RoboCop fan skepticism (the new color of the hero’s suit and the soft PG-13 rating are two points of contention) do not bode well for a considerable uptick through the weekend. It’s more likely RoboCop will earn between $20 and $25 million.

The final 1980s remake, Endless Love, will surely benefit from opening on Hallmark’s National Date Night, or Valentine’s Day, today. Similar titles The Vow and Safe Haven fared pretty well over this same weekend the past two years, and their demographic, teenage girls, will likely help Love earn solid figures. Even given the film’s lack of headlining stars (The Vow had Rachel McAdams and Channing Tatum going for it) or recognizable name brand (Safe Haven was a Nicholas Sparks adaptation), eye-candy Alex Pettyfer and a tried-and-true star-crossed lovers storyline should nonetheless help Endless Love gross around $10 million.

Given Winter’s Tale cast – Colin Farrell, Russell Crowe and Jennifer Connelly – period setting, and heavily romantic plot, one would think the novel adaptation would be primed to easily beat Endless Love, if not the weekend’s other two new releases. Unfortunately, those stars about which Jessica Brown Findlay spoke so dreamily within the film have not aligned for its likely success. Director-writer-producer Akiva Goldsman’s labor of love has been almost universally panned, and there are many who believe the movie’s marketing has done a poor job explaining just what exactly the time-traveling tale is about. Returns should tally out to less than $10 million, which means Winter’s Tale will probably not crack the long weekend’s Top 5. Monuments Men should earn the No. 5 spot, dropping some 40 percent or so from last weekend to rake in $12 or $13 million.

Happy Valentine's Day!

 

‘The Lego Movie’ to tower over ‘Monuments Men’

Remember when people thought The Lego Movie was a bad idea? All the sniping and Internet eye-rolling that accompanied Warner Bros.’ decision to release a film based on the popular kids toy brand has been all but forgotten today, as positive reviews for the animated flick continue to pour in. Opening wide in 3,775 locations, The Lego Movie is poised to enjoy a boffo opening.  According to Fandango, Lego is on track to rake in the highest pre-sales figures since Toy Story 3, a feat that would place it ahead of blockbusters Despicable Me 2, Monsters University, and box-office darling Frozen.  Each of the aforementioned films debuted to $67 million or more, which certainly bodes well for Emmet, Wyldstyle, and the rest of Lego’s funny, earnest and “special” cast.

The Monuments Men’s box-office performance, on the other hand, is more uncertain. Writer-director-producer George Clooney’s WWII dramedy could also be called funny and earnest, but critics are seeing something much less special in the combination. An old-fashioned war movie, which our critic Kevin Lally called “A film set in the 1940s that feels like it was made in the 1960s,” and to which NY Mag critic David Edelstein suggested the alternate title The Tasteful Dozen, The Monuments Men has received underwhelming reviews.  The draw of such a stellar, A-list cast (Clooney, Matt Damon, Cate Blanchett, Bill Murray, John Goodman) will still likely help Men land at No. 2 this weekend, but expectations are tempered. Some pundits predict returns around $25 million. Others, like Sony, have less faith in the pedigreed caper: The film’s distributor believes receipts will tally out in the high teens.

The third and final new film opening today, Vampire Academy, is expected to fall behind Ride Along and possibly even Frozen to clock in at No. 4 or 5.  There hasn’t been much of a marketing push behind this new(ish) spin on the tired blood-sucker trope, although it does have Mean Girls and Freaky Friday director Mark Waters to recommend it. The teen romp will probably be funny enough – which, in all likelihood, will still not be enough to make an impact at the box office. Expect Academy to earn $6 or $7 million.

New buddy comedy could make things ‘Awkward’ for ‘Ride Along’

Super Bowl weekend is a notoriously slow period at the box office, and expectations for each of the two films opening wide today – That Awkward Moment and Labor Day – are muted.  Both movies target a female audience, with the one following a trio of Manhattan pals as they individually succumb to the women they had sworn off, and the other being an unapologetic and seemingly old-fashioned weepie romance. Distributors are surely figuring women are more likely than their male counterparts to go to the movies this weekend, though it remains to be seen whether either of the aforementioned conceits will prove appealing enough to lure even the most disinterested of female sports fans away from her TV and, really, Sunday’s main attraction: the commercials.

That Awkward Moment, opening in 2,809 theatres, is poised to do the better business of the two. As of this morning the comedy was tracking around $10-$15 million, which means it could finally displace Ride Along as king of the box office – or, just as plausibly, fall in line behind Ice Cube and Kevin Hart’s likable flick. It’ll be a tight race between the two bro-centric offerings.

With a slightly smaller release platform of 2,584 locations, Labor Day will likely land at the lower end of the fiscal spectrum. The film has failed to impress critics, whose accumulated pans have earned Jason Reitman’s latest offering a poor 32% rotten rating on Rotten Tomatoes. Pundits foresee a total weekend haul of around $6 million.

That leaves The Nut Job, Frozen and Lone Survivor to fall somewhere in between That Awkward Moment and Ride Along at the top, and Labor Day at the bottom of the list of the weekend’s highest-grossing films. The Nut Job managed to beat out b.o. darling Frozen last weekend, but Disney is going all-out diva – or rather, encouraging that mindset in its fan base – as of today: The studio is releasing a sing-along version of their animated hit. Considering Frozen’s soundtrack is the first since High School Musical 2 to spend at least three weeks at No. 1 on the Billboard charts, we’d call that a pretty savvy move. In which case, look for Lone Survivor to comfortably occupy the weekend box office’s No. 5 spot.

‘Ride Along’ to pull up ahead of ‘Jack Ryan’

Buddy cop comedy Ride Along, starring Ice Cube and comedian Kevin Hart, whose documentary Kevin Hart: Let Me Explain was one of the most successful docs of 2013, is poised to cut in front of the other guys and finish first this weekend. Jack Ryan: Shadow Recruit will likely be Ride’s fiercest competitor, although the spy reboot isn’t expected to put up much of a fight.

Ride Along follows a seasoned cop who tries to scare away his sister’s boyfriend by taking the wannabe policeman on a faux ride-along – which soon turns very and hilariously real. Pundits believe the film’s dual plots involving a romantic relationship and a budding bromance should appeal to audiences of both genders and help the film score big at the box-office. Expectations are hovering about $30 million for the long weekend. Interestingly, if Ride Along does earn the most money, this will be the third consecutive year a Universal film has come out on top over the MLK holiday.

Chris Pine is now the fourth actor to tackle the popular Tom Clancy character Jack Ryan. Alec Baldwin played him once and Harrison Ford played him twice in the ‘90s, while Ben Affleck made the most recent attempt to establish a Jack Ryan franchise with 2002’s The Sum of All Fears. Is Chris Pine finally the guy to make a Bourne-like success of Ryan? Unclear. The film has gotten mixed though not terrible reviews, with many critics adopting an ambivalent attitude: Competent enough, but we’ve seen it before. Shadow Recruit opens in 3,387 theatres to Ride Along’s 2,662, but even with a potentially larger audience base, the movie is only expected to gross somewhere in the high-teens.

2013 saw a number of high returns for horror films, and Devil’s Due may be looking to continue that momentum. Unfortunately, the movie’s found-footage conceit, once a popular device, seems to be wearing thin with viewers. Paranormal Activity: The Marked Ones also featured spooky video and yet it failed to match the figures of past Paranormal Activity movies, opening to just $18 million, a new franchise low. Devil’s Due doesn’t have a similarly recognizable name, or cast (although fans of TV show “Friday Night Lights” will be excited to see Matt Saracen up on the big screen), in which case, the film will likely clock in between $10 and $15 million.

Animated kids’ comedy The Nut Job is the last new release opening wide this weekend. Comparisons to Disney’s winter behemoth Frozen are inevitable, although the latter continues to hold remarkably strong. The nutty squirrel caper may have novelty on its side, but Frozen has the enduring appeal of Idina Menzel. The princess musical will likely out-earn Job, which isn’t expected to gross more than $20 million or so.

Lastly, several Academy Award nominees are getting their pre-Oscars re-release this weekend, to the delight of those intent on seeing each of the nine Best Picture contenders before the March 2 telecast. Technically, Captain Phillips is already two days into its theatrical return, having opened in 903 theatres on Wednesday. Favorites Gravity and 12 Years a Slave will screen in 944 and 761 locations, respectively.

‘Hercules’ to fall in step behind ‘Lone Survivor’

If early tracking reports bear out, the son of Zeus is no match for the U.S. Navy SEALs (now there’s an infomercial for you). Lone Survivor, the critically acclaimed war drama starring Mark Wahlberg and based on a real-life disastrous, albeit heroic, 2005 SEALs mission in Afghanistan, expands wide to 2,876 theatres today. Comparable combat films Zero Dark Thirty and Black Hawk Down managed to pull in figures in the low-to-mid $20-million range over their opening weekends (in 2012 and 2001, respectively), setting mid-January precedents many believe Lone Survivor could easily match. Universal, however, has released more conservative estimates, predicting their film will bow somewhere in the high teens.

The other high-profile release opening nationwide this weekend, The Legend of Hercules, isn’t expected to make its competitors work hard for their survival. Although promos have Kellan Lutz looking appropriately muscular, and the CGI visuals boasting the appropriate fanboy aesthetic, there’s been little advance hype, from either critics or fans, surrounding this latest variation on the 300 formula. Hercules will likely haul in around $10 million, and may not even crack the weekend’s Top 5. However, those still gunning for an epic take on the epic tale of a son-of-a-god can rest assured: Brett Ratner will release his version, starring The Rock, this July. If that doesn’t do it for you, there’s always the Zealot: The Life and Times of Jesus of Nazareth adaptation.

Over in the specialty realm, Spike Jonze’s Her is poised to expand to 1,729 locations. The quirky tale of fraught love between man and machine has so far earned $3.2 million and received generally favorable reviews, though given its strange/original subject matter, pundits are unsure of its continued success. Similar oddball titles, such as Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind and Lost in Translation, however, managed to play very well, so we’ll see if cerebral cinemagoers can help Her reach the $5 million mark.

Finally, August: Osage County and Inside Llewyn Davis will also continue their rollouts. August will screen in 905 theatres, while Llewyn will play in 729.

In sum, the weekend’s breakdown will likely go something like this:

1. Lone Survivor


2. Frozen (No, audiences can’t let it go)


3. The Wolf of Wall Street


4. The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug


5. American Hustle

 

‘Paranormal Activity’ to scare up weekend business

Though 2013 ended on a high note earlier this week – domestic sales tallied out at almost $11 billion for the year – the first weekend of 2014 will likely be a quiet one.  The Marked Ones, the fifth installment in the popular Paranormal Activity horror franchise, is the only new release opening today. The first PA film was a surprise hit and a testament to the power of word-of-mouth buzz. The micro-budgeted flick, released in 2007, earned $107.9 million and is still the series’ most successful movie. Paranormal Activity 2 grossed $84.8 million in 2010, while Paranormal 3 has come the closest yet to matching the first film’s haul, raking in $104 million in 2011. Paranormal Activity 4, however, which opened in 2012, took in roughly half its predecessor’s total, earning just $53.9 million.

This time around, the filmmakers are hoping to utilize the power of demographics. The lead actors in The Marked Ones are Latino, perhaps a direct casting nod to the series’ fans: Latinos tend to make up a large percentage of horror-movie audiences. Not to mention, with the success of recent films targeted toward Latino viewers, such as Instructions Not Included, Hollywood in general seems to be wising up to the power (i.e. the willingness to spend) of this previously underserved group. Besides a shift in players, though, it’s supernatural business as usual, with previews emphasizing unsettling video footage, the franchise’s hallmark.

Pundits are predicting a haul of just under $25 million for Paranormal Activity: The Marked Ones. Expectations have been softened by the weekend’s Northeastern snowstorm, which many believe will keep viewers inside, where their VOD, DVDs and Netflix are more readily accessible.

A good portion of those who are brave enough to weather the elements in search of off-the-couch entertainment, though, will in all likelihood opt for Disney’s grand success story, Frozen. This weekend will mark the animated musical’s sixth in theatres, and it’s still going strong. Strong enough to win the No. 2 slot just beneath The Marked Ones, according to those in the know. The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug will probably clock in at No. 3, followed by Oscar and fan favorite American Hustle, with Anchorman 2 rounding out the top 5. Martin Scorsese’s The Wolf of Wall Street may be able to leverage recent controversy and prurient interest in its subject matter to sneak its way into the No. 5 slot, just ahead of Burgundy and his much more harmless coterie of buffoons, but given Street’s low Cinemascore rating  of a “C”, that seems unlikely.

 

‘Anchorman 2’ to have a classy weekend

The man who managed to make the trinity of obnoxiousness – misogyny, dimwittedness and frustratingly perfect hair – hilariously lovable in 2004 is back for another crassly classy good time. Will Ferrell has reprised his role as ‘70’s newsman Ron Burgundy for Anchorman 2: The Legend Continues, which opened wide in 3,450 locations on Wednesday.

Ferrell and director Adam McKay’s first Anchorman was by no means a box-office success, earning roughly $85 million domestically and failing to generate any international business to speak of. The film only found a dedicated audience once it was released on DVD, quickly becoming the kind of cult favorite many a high-schooler spent his, and her, lunch period quoting.

Hollywood, however, was a little slow to catch up. Anchorman may have found new life post-theatrical release, but given its tepid b.o. performance, studio execs at Paramount were initially hesitant to green-light a sequel. The fact that several of the film’s stars have become more popular over the last decade – most notably Steve Carell, who helmed his own cult hit, TV series “The Office – probably played a large role in overcoming the kind of bottom-line hesitancy that kept Anchorman 2 in limbo for years. Not that Paramount, once committed, minded waging an expensive marketing campaign on the movie’s behalf. Have all those Dodge Durango commercials piqued viewers’ interest? The weekend before Christmas is notoriously tough for new releases, but Anchorman 2 is still expected to earn between $40 and $50 million for the five-day spread.

Actually, so is The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug. Few pundits have been able to discuss Smaug without mentioning its inability to generate the same kind of boffo revenue as its predecessor, last year’s The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey (even though Smaug has earned superior reviews). Yet Peter Jackson’s second Lord of the Rings prequel is still drawing sizable crowds. It wouldn’t be a Christmas miracle if Smaug managed to out-gross Anchorman 2 this weekend.

CG-animated kids’ film Walking with Dinosaurs will likely land at the bottom of the weekend’s list of top earners. Frozen continues to pose fierce competition, and will probably keep Dinosaurs from grossing more than $10 or $12 million.

Specialty enthusiasts who do not live in either New York or LA (a tough position for a specialty enthusiast) will be treated to Christmas-come-early today. Both American Hustle and Saving Mr. Banks are expanding, to 2,500 and 2,200 locations, respectively. David O. Russell’s Oscar favorite had the fourth-best per-theatre average when it opened in limited release last weekend. Given the loud buzz surrounding the flick, it should earn upwards of $15 million.

Last but by no means the least interesting, Spike Jonze’s Her, about a man who falls in love with a computer operating system (not as crazy as it sounds, considering the computer’s voice belongs to Scarlett Johansson), also bows in six locations today. The film is on track to expand wide on January 10^th.   

The ‘Hobbit’ to tower over ‘Madea’

The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug and Tyler Perry’s A Madea Christmas will go head-to-head at the box office this weekend, although the matchup is not exactly a nail-biter. As the second prequel in the incredibly popular and successful Lord of the Rings franchise, Hobbit is pretty much guaranteed a stronger bow. Last year, The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey, Smaug’s predecessor, earned $300 million domestically and an unearthly $1 billion worldwide. Critics, however, didn’t love it, and even fan reactions were mixed, certainly in comparison with the kind of accolades heaped upon director Peter Jackson’s Rings trilogy. Journey’s success was largely due to its ability to leverage the popularity of these films, while Smaug has a more difficult road ahead of it as it works to prove it’s better (more fun, less dragging) than its predecessor. Luckily, critics seem to think it is. The Desolation of Smaug will probably earn $15 million less than Journey and open to around $70 million or so. The fact that such a staggering gross would still be considered a qualified success speaks to the ridiculous earning potential of – and ridiculous expectations surrounding – these movies.

Though it isn’t expected to trump The Hobbit, Madea’s box-office odds are still looking pretty merry. Tyler Perry’s A Madea Christmas is the director’s 14th movie in the past eight years. Eight of Perry’s 13 movies have opened to $20 million or more. A more fun fact: The only other directors to have had as many $20 million openings are Robert Zemeckis, who has had nine, and Steven Spielberg, who can boast 11. In total, Perry’s oeuvre has earned $674 million domestically, with his top three films all featuring his Madea character, or Perry dressed up as a smart-mouthed granny. Odds are Madea will chuckle up a little less than $30 million.

Frozen and The Hunger Games: Catching Fire are still going strong and will probably land at nos. three and four, respectively. Specialty enthusiasts and Academy Awards speculators, though, are more concerned with Disney and Jennifer Lawrence’s other movies opening in limited release this weekend: Saving Mr. Banks and American Hustle. Viewers are expected to be drawn in like moths to the Oscar-gold flame surrounding these two. Awards buzz is thick around Lawrence, who plays a broadly cockamamie housewife in Hustle, and Emma Thompson as the persnickety Mary Poppins author, P.L. Travers, in Banks. The latter film is opening in 15 locations ahead of its wide release next weekend, while Hustle will screen in six theatres.

‘Furnace’ to fall behind ‘Frozen’ & ‘Fire’

The weekend after Thanksgiving is typically a quiet one for the nation’s box office, and this year, only one new release is opening wide. That would be Out of the Furnace, a gritty, bleak revenge drama starring the gritty, bleak Batman, Christian Bale, as well as Casey Affleck, Zoe Saldana, and Woody Harrelson. Expectations aren’t quite as dour as the film’s subject matter, location and production stills, but they’re not overly hopeful. To compare, Killing Them Softly was in the same position this time last year, as a new release bowing after the holiday weekend. It boasted a big movie star, Brad Pitt, but failed to leverage the actor’s perceived wide appeal. Softly opened to $6.8 million. Furnace isn’t tracking great with critics, either, (52% rotten on infallible taste barometer Rotten Tomatoes), though it’ll likely fare better than Brad’s failed bet. Screening in 2,101 theatres, odds are, it’ll earn around $10 million.

That kind of haul would likely place it at No. 3, behind last weekend’s reigning champions Frozen and The Hunger Games: Catching Fire. General consensus has Games finally slipping from the top slot, to the gain of family friendly Frozen. This will be the action flick's third weekend in theatres, while Frozen, now in its sophomore outing, has youth and a bit more novelty on its side. Comparable franchise series Twilight and Harry Potter both experienced a significant downturn in sales over this same weekend, on average dropping about 60%. Games, however, has consistently done better business than either of its blockbuster peers, meaning its dip shouldn’t be quite as severe - probably about 50%. Both the princess and the provocateur (there’s a college term paper for you) should earn figures in the mid-to-high $30 million range, with Frozen gaining the edge.

Art-house aficionados have been edge-of-their-seats with anticipation over the new Coen brothers’ film, Inside Llewyn Davis, opening in four locations in LA and New York today.  The film, allegedly inspired by the experiences of folk singer Dave Van Ronk in 1960’s Greenwich Village, has been earning rave reviews (95% fresh on RT). Not to mention, its hooky, ridiculous protest song “Please Mr. Kennedy” has steadily been making its viral way into the hearts, and that part of your brain that’s like fly paper to a catchy tune, for a few days now. It doesn’t have the foot-tapping appeal of a “Man of Constant Sorrow,” from the brothers’ O Brother, Where Art Thou? But it does have “Girls” actor Adam Driver as a real-life space cowboy.  Between the siblings’ cachet, the film’s positive buzz, and the below clip, Davis should significantly out-earn its predecessor, A Serious Man, which opened to $41,890 in 2009.

 

‘Games’ to make child’s play of weekend b.o.

It’s a foregone conclusion the second installment in the Hunger Games franchise, opening today in 4,163 theatres, will prove victorious at the box office this weekend  – and the next weekend, and the one after that, and so on and so forth, until Catching Fire has not merely broken but incinerated most sales records set before it.

If our expectations sound a tad hyperbolic, consider the context. The first Hunger Games film opened to an awe-some $152 million. It continued to hold strong through the duration of its theatrical run, resisting any significant downturn in sales thanks to strong word-of-mouth and favorable reviews. By the time it finally closed, The Hunger Games had amassed $408 million. That makes it the 14th highest-grossing movie of all time. Surprisingly, it out-earned any of the Harry Potter or Twilight films, which had previously set the bar for frenzied-fan fare.

Then there’s that small, shiny pated statue perched somewhere in Jennifer Lawrence’s house. The actress who plays Katniss Everdeen has seen her star rise and rise since 2012’s Games. She won an Oscar for her turn as a stubborn yet compassionate (we spy a theme) dancer in David O. Russell’s Silver Linings Playbook last year, and stood out within an ensemble cast of pretty mutants in Marble’s lucrative tentpole X Men: First Class. Add to the mix all those viral videos of her acting lovely, like the one in which she comforted a crying fan, and Jennifer Lawrence is capable of calling upon quite a large group of faithful for support.

However, there are those pundits who believe it would be difficult for any film, even this one, to surpass a $152 million weekend opening. There’s little doubt Catching Fire will match its predecessor – beyond that, it may eke out another $8 million or so for a staggering $160 haul. Odds are favorable.

Less so for the latest Vince Vaughn comedy, Delivery Man. Once a bankable draw, Vaughn has taken his lumps of late. Neither The Internship nor The Dilemma (no, can’t remember them either) was very successful, with the one opening to $17.3 million and the other $17.8 million. Man is tracking for an even poorer debut.

Specialty release Philomena also opens in four locations today. The film has seen a small boost in publicity in recent weeks, thanks to Harvey Weinstein’s successful campaign to change the movie’s R rating to PG-13. Weinstein’s hoping the softened label will reap dividends when Philomena opens wide and becomes accessible to family and church-going audiences, but for now, its largely positive reviews should appeal to the weekend’s arthouse viewers.

In all, between Catching Fire and the still popular Thor: The Dark World and The Best Man Holiday, this coming weekend could be one of the cinema’s best ever.

Even ‘The Best’ can’t beat ‘Thor’

As the only new movie opening in wide release this weekend, The Best Man Holiday is expected to make a strong debut. But one’s “strength” is, of course, relative when compared to that of a towheaded Norse god. If the Taye Diggs romantic dramedy is in fact the cinema’s best man, then Thor: The Dark World is the bridegroom, the main attraction. The two sequels (The Best Man opened back in 1999) will go head-to-head over the next several days, though it won’t be much of a bout. The Dark World is poised to reap $35 million or so, while Holiday is tracking in the mid $20-million range. Still, the latter is expected to out-perform the brand’s first installment. The Best Man opened to a modest $9 million 14 years ago, accumulating $34 million by the end of its run. (Adjusted for inflation, that number is roughly $54 million.) Holiday is also trending strong among African American women, the same demographic that helped last spring’s Think Like A Man debut to over $33 million. Perhaps they’ll ensure Thor wins the weekend by a smaller margin than predicted.

The Best Man Holiday wasn’t always the lone wide release scheduled to open over the weekend of November 15th, however. As of early October, The Book Thief and Scorsese’s eagerly anticipated The Wolf of Wall Street were also slated to bow tonight. But Fox soon changed its mind about the best Book Thief release strategy, and opted for a platform approach beginning last weekend instead. And Wolf of Wall Street was running a little long for its studio’s comfort. Rumors had been circulating for some time that Scorsese wouldn’t have a suitable cut finished in time for tonight. By the end of the month it was clear that he wouldn’t, and now Wolf has been pushed back to Christmas Day. If others had been pondering an 11/15 rollout, they (wisely) thought better of sandwiching themselves between blockbuster Thor and international phenom The Hunger Games: Catching Fire, which opens next Friday. Hence, The Best Man’s single status.


The specialty market will offer up its own version of a major release in the form of Alexander Payne’s (The Descendants) Nebraska, opening in four locations tonight. Bruce Dern won the Best Actor award at the Cannes Film Festival for his turn as an aging alcoholic convinced he’s won a million dollars. Between the director’s clout, the Cannes buzz, and the film’s generally favorable reviews (89% fresh on Rotten Tomatoes), Nebraska is expected to average $40,000 per theatre.

Dallas Buyers Club expands again, this time to 184 locations. Most likely, it’ll earn over $1 million.

And then next weekend, nothing else going on anywhere or doing anything will matter, because The Hunger Games will have arrived. Simply put, the odds are in no one else’s favor.

'Thor' poised to overtake weekend box-office

As Freddie Mercury might say, this weekend’s box-office contenders are waiting for the hammer to fall. Thor: The Dark World will likely assert its dominance over the domestic market when it bows in 3,841 locations tonight. Many are predicting the sequel to 2011’s Thor will gross approximately $95 million, earning slightly less than fellow superhero flicks Batman, Spider-Man, Iron Man and Superman, which all debuted to upwards of $100 million. Last weekend, The Dark World made headlines when it opened to a tuneful $111 million overseas. Basically, everyone knows who the winner of this weekend’s sales race will be, the question is, by just how much will Chris Hemsworth, Tom Hiddleston, Natalie Portman and team outstrip the competition?

The Avengers effect, the box-office theory that posits solo vehicles for those characters that appeared in 2012’s The Avengers will experience a boost in sales thanks to that film's popularity, proved true for Iron Man 3 and will probably factor into The Dark World’s success.  That Thor’s mighty earning potential is already being treated as a foregone conclusion is great news for the ever-expanding cinematic Marvel universe, though less so for everyone else, like last weekend’s No. 1, Ender’s Game. It’s looking as if the young adult adaptation will slip a couple of spots this Friday, Saturday and Sunday. Bad Grandpa is holding strong, and so is the critically denigrated if fan darling Last Vegas – they’ll likely land at Nos. 2 and 3, respectively. That leaves Ender’s Game to keep warm the oft-overlooked No. 4 slot. The film may have been groomed to spawn a franchise, but such a large dip in popular interest its second weekend out of the gate doesn’t bode well for executive interest in Ender’s Game 2.

Another movie about the forces of good matching against the embodiment of evil, The Book Thief, will also open, in four locations in New York and LA, tonight. The Nazi-era adaptation of Markus Zusak’s young adult novel of the same name recounts the childhood of Liesel Meminger, the titular literary robber whose love for books sees her through trying social, political and personal conditions. The film is tracking a solid 67% fresh on Rotten Tomatoes, and with its light though not particularly inventive treatment of the source material will also likely do solid business.

Continuing with their rollout strategies, About Time, 12 Years A Slave and Dallas Buyers Club will all expand to more theatres this weekend. The Richard Curtis rom-com About Time had a disappointing opening last week, earning less than $1.1 million from 175 locations. Universal isn’t expecting much from its sophomore outing: the film is tracking at about $5 million.

On the other hand, 12 Years and Club have proven themselves fierce competitors in both the awards-season race and arthouse market. Steve McQueen’s incredibly well-received slavery drama will open wide in 1,144 theatres, while Matthew McConaughey’s Oscar hopeful will expand to 35 locations.