Female stars with the top returns, and a look at the 85% rule

By Sarah Sluis

Today Forbes compiled a list of female stars that give the most return on their salary. They divided the total gross of the film, including DVD and television, by the star's salary to get their number. The formula has its flaws, namely that a supporting part in a big-name movie can put you near the top of the list. They also only looked at the star's past three films, though arguably, that kind of short-term outlook is what flies in Hollywood.

The top ten actresses were Naomi Watts, Jennifer Connelly, Rachel McAdams, Natalie Portman, Meryl Streep, Jennifer Aniston, Halle Berry, Cate Blanchett, Anne Hathaway and Hilary Swank. At the top of the list, each dollar Watts earned brought in $44 at the box office. For the bottom three, each dollar brought in $23 at the box office. In contrast to normal 'A' Lists, the group highlights some lesser-known stars by presenting the information through a different lens.

The unusual grouping also brings to mind the movie mindset that focuses on opening weekends instead of theatrical runs. A month ago, I noted that quiet film Julie & Julia was playing strongly week after week, which was expected given its audience demographics. While the industry standard works off a simple formula of exponential decay, meaning that they expect to earn half as much each week (adding up to 85% in the first three weeks), many movies defy that formula For example, since my post, the percentage of gross Julie & Julia earned from its first three weeks dipped from 73% to 64%--and it's racked up $91.9 million. It just kept on making close to the same amount of money, week after week. The news is good for theatre owners, too, since they earn a greater percentage on the film as weeks go by.

I took a look at some other films to see where they fell using the 85% rule (keep in mind some 2009 films are still playing, so the percentage may eventually lower a point or two). Turns out, the films I decided to check out first--films I simply remembered strongly--usually outperformed, earning 85% or less of their gross from the first three weeks. They have sticking power. It took random selections from Box Office Mojo to find a movie that actually went over the 85% rule: take the March release Street Fighter: Legend of Chun-Li (by now, a faint memory). It earned 91% of its gross from the first three weeks.

Most hits fell below or met the 85% rule. Sex and the City earned 78% of its gross in the first three weeks.Twilight, even though it dropped over 60% in its second week, went ten percent below the rule: 74%. Star Trek, with its strong word-of-mouth, brought in 71%. A youth-oriented hit like Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen also released on a Wednesday, boosting its front-end gross: 84.3%. A summer flop like Year One? Just barely over, at 88%.

When you look at platform releases, it's a whole different story. Slumdog Millionaire earned just 2.4% of its gross in the first three weeks, and the reigning champion in my mind is My Big Fat Greek Wedding, which earned 1% of its gross in the first week. It didn't even fulfill the rule of platform releases, which is a $15,000 or more gross per theatre. It earned just $5,000--a number it stuck to for most of its run.

While the 85% number is useful, especially for those frantically calculating potential gross after opening weekend, it's interesting to see the range of results--especially when tweaks of a few percent adds up to millions.