'Madea's Big Happy Family' may trample 'Water for Elephants'

By Sarah Sluis

Tyler Perry is the king of high opening weekends, and his latest entry in the Madea franchise, Madea's Big Happy Family (2,288 theatres), will be a strong contender for first place if it can beat Rio's sophomore session. The holidays will help out both films. The Madea films have played particularly well during Easter Sunday matinees, while Rio can take advantage of students on spring break, including many that will be off this Friday.

Water for Elephants (2,817 theatres) should grab third place by a wide berth, with many estimating a $15 million take for the movie, which had a $40 million budget. The glitter of big-name stars Reese Witherspoon, Robert Pattinson, and Christoph Waltz can't help this movie, which I called out for its "one-dimensional characters" and "worn, familiar" narrative. The circus and 1930s costumes are quite breathtaking, but the movie itself just doesn't deliver. I think even fans of the novel will leave wishing for more.

Disneynature's annual Earth Day documentary tradition continues with African Cats (1,220 theatres). The nature film centers on "two mothers�one an aging lioness with a cub, the other a cheetah with five newborns�and their struggles against predators and...to raise these youngsters into adulthood," according to Kirk Honeycutt. The animals are given names and their actions narrated by Samuel L. Jackson, anthropomorphizing them to the point that Honeycutt was reminded of The Lion King. "Nothing's wrong with this approach, of course," he concludes, reasoning that it's a surefire way to appeal to young audiences. 2009's Earth earned $8.8 million its first weekend, but 2010's Oceans opened with $6 million, and finished with 40% less at the box office. Can African Cats reverse this downward trend?

Director Morgan Spurlock offers an entertaining, brisk account on product placement in POM Wonderful Presents: The Greatest Movie Ever Sold (18 theatres). The documentary, which was entirely funded by product placement, is apparently already in the green, though lead sponsor POM is withholding some money until it earns over $10 million at the box office. Good luck Morgan!

Finally, the Oscar-nominated foreign film Incendies (3 theatres) makes its debut. Critic Doris Toumarkine gives the drama her proud endorsement, saying it gives "that all-too-rare film experience that commands attention at every twisty story turn and delivers an extraordinary ending that rewards that attention as the loose ends explode into a collective 'Wow!'"

On Monday, I'll see if Madea or Rio drew the most audiences, if Water for Elephants succeeds despite its bad reviews, and if Morgan Spurlock is on track to receive that box-office bonus from POM.