Argo (3,232 theatres)
became a serious awards contender after its great critical reception at
the Toronto Film Festival. Now it has to prove its worth to a nationwide audience. Ben Affleck stars in his third directing
effort, and this is"most accomplished work yet," reports critic Kevin
Lally. The real-life adaptation centers on the CIA's plan to rescue six
Americans who escape from the Iranian
but remain trapped in the country. Great direction and writing mean
audiences are in for "a true nail-biter, even if you
already know the outcome." Since Taken 2
overperformed last weekend, earning a stunning $50 million, even a 50%
drop would put the suspense-actioner at $25 million. That's a high
target for Argo to beat, so the movies may end up neck and neck for the first-place finish.
Beating the Halloween rush for R-rated horror, Sinister (2,527 theatres)
centers on a typically ill-advised move to a haunted house. A crime
writer decides to move into a dwelling that was the site of a murder. Home
movies upstairs give him clues about the past that could end up killing
his family too. The "genuinely creepy" movie "doesn't break any new
ground, but it works
haunted-house conventions with considerable skill and admirable
conviction," according to critic Maitland McDonagh. The fact that there
hasn't been an adult scary movie for a while should mean
end up close to $20 million.
The PG-rated Kevin James comedy Here Comes the Boom (3,014 theatres)
should receive strong support from the Heartland, but that may not be
enough to bring the opening above the teen million range. James' brand
of silly comedy generally doesn't receive strong critical support (Boom is currently at just 43% positive on Rotten Tomatoes), but our critic David
Noh crowned the movie "a
winner in terms of entertainment and crowd-pleasing satisfaction." Sure,
the tale of a teacher who moonlights as an MMA fighter in order to save
the school's music program is "predictable," but the "heartwarming" parts
balance it out.
Word-of-mouth about writer/director Martin McDonagh's In Bruges, which had a very under-the-radar release in 2008, should help Seven Psychopaths (1,480 theatres)
improve on the
that the older males who are showing the most interest in this option
also have Argo and Taken 2 on their to-see list, so Seven Psychopaths
may be the loser in this crowded weekend. Lally praises the
"alternately hilarious and horrifying
comedy," but warns that the "extreme approach to black comedy
won’t be for everyone." Somewhere between $7-10 million is in store for
the violent feature, which should have strong playability in weeks
to come.
The first Atlas Shrugged movie tanked in 2011 with just $4.6 million on a reported $20 million budget. That didn't stop the production of Atlas Shrugged: Part II (1,012 theatres), which will open even wider than the first one. Trailers for the allegorical work played before the successful conservative doc 2016: Obama's America and the Christian-leaning Last Ounce of Courage,
so the movie should have high awareness among the target demographic. An
opening of over $5 million will make this adaptation of the book by Ayn
Rand a success.
On Monday, we'll chart how all the new releases fared in this movie-saturated fall weekend.
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