In the wake of Superstorm Sandy, there is some concern that the
weekend box office will be impacted. With its high ticket prices and
dense population, New York City theatres often post the highest returns
of any locationin the U.S., and are critical launching points for indie releases. In the New York metro area, twenty AMC theatres and seven Regal theatres remain out of commission,
along with other independent theatres. Number crunchers predict the
East Coast storm won't have too large of an effect on the overall box
office. In areas that were once closed and now have reopened, there may
be robust demand for the comfort of a movie.
Appealing to nostalgia-seeking adults and their video game-loving children, Wreck-It Ralph
(3,752 theatres) could open to over $40 million this weekend, making it Disney Animation's highest non-holiday opening. 2,911 of the locations will show the animated feature in 3D. The "homage to classic
videogame culture wrapped in an adventurous road movie" should "sweep the family-friendly demo in the first few weeks of
the month before any significant challengers emerge," predicts THR's Justin Lowe. The story of a video game villain who decides he's sick of being the bad guy "bears a distinct Pixar DNA
signature," Lowe notes, a sign that post-acquisition of Pixar, Disney's team is either collaborating or picking up the animation studio's tricks.
Denzel Washington plays a drug-addled pilot who miraculously saves a malfunctioning plane in Flight (1,900 theatres). Washington just led Safe House to a $124 million total this February,
but Flight is more challenging fare, offering a complicated and well-acted portrait of an addict. That may dissuade Washington's
fans who prefer him in more breezy action diversions. Paramount hopes
it will pick up other viewers drawn in by the pedigree of director
Robert Zemeckis, who has directed emotionally stirring crowd pleasers like Forrest Gump and Cast Away. FJI critic Doris Toumarkine dubs the release "one of the strongest adult dramas to come out of Hollywood in a long time," praising Zemeckis' move from "motion capture to emotion capture," referencing the director's previous focus on works like Polar Express.
"Hardcore action fans" will probably get the biggest rise out of The Man with the Iron Fists (1,868 theatres), predicts THR's
Todd McCarthy. "This is the sort of film where the main characters are
defined first and foremost by what type of weaponry they favor," he
says, and
"very few minutes go by without some sort of combat." The
stylized martial-arts mash-up can have a "concocted, secondhand feel."
There's a certain type of audience that loves these kinds of films, but unlike, say, the work of Quentin Tarantino, it will be unlikely to expand to a broader audience, so a debut in the $7-10 million range is expected.
The black comedy The Details (12 theatres), which centers on a couple's unraveling in the wake of a household pest, will lead the specialty pack this weekend, with the support of stars Tobey Maguire and Elizabeth Banks. Sean Penn plays an aging rocker in This Must Be the Place (2 theatres). It earned critic David Noh's endorsement. He praises the "compellingly unpredictable
entertainment, laced with wry humor and that essential,
all-too-rare element these days, surprise." Finally, the epidemic thriller The Bay (23 theatres) will scare you, assures critic Maitland McDonagh. With a don't-mess-with-nature message, it "pulls off the harder-than-it-looks feat of tucking food for thought inside a very scary wrapper."
On Monday, we'll see if Wreck-It Ralph held up to the aftereffects of Superstorm Sandy, and if Flight and The Man with the Iron Fists attracted the demographics they need to drive a strong debut.
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