'42' should hit a triple while 'Scary Movie 5' may not even get on base

Finally, an adult-leaning picture that doesn't involve car chases, mobsters, or kidnapping. 42 (3,003  theatres) is one of the first dramas to release this year that aims to connect with audiences in search of quality. Baseball fans, history buffs, and African-Americans (or any

combination of the three) should also be among the viewers turning out this weekend. The question is whether the idea of seeing Jackie Robinson on the big screen will outweigh the poor box office precedents for this picture. Recent baseball pictures (including Moneyball and Benchwarmers ) just haven't opened above $20 million. Of course, if you look way back, you have both A League of Their Own, which earned over $100 million back in 1992, and Field of Dreams, which earned $64 million in 1989. In spirit, those are closer to 42. However, the most recent story of triumph in a predominantly white space, the flying movie Red Tails, didn't even cross $50 million. It's a mixed bag out there. Many predict an opening of $20 million, but I could see the movie going even higher. 42 gives a saintly portrait of Robinson, which doesn't necessarily make for high drama, but the inspiring, feel-good story could have audiences coming back due to positive word-of-mouth. Despite its flaws, it's one of the best wide releases to come out this year, and I'm rooting for Robinson and 42.

Scary Movie 5 (3,402 theatres) is back from the dead, and this time Lindsay Lohan, Charlie
Sheen, and Ashley Tisdale are among the stars in this horror parody franchise. Scary Movie 4 came out a good six years ago, and such a long lag between sequels is dicey. It's most likely that the release will fall flat, opening under $20 million.

Two specialty releases are scaling up. After debuting last week to a $32,000 per-screen average, Trance will expand into 438 locations. The Place Beyond the Pines will go from 30 to 514 locations in its third
week. Pines will likely earn at least $1 million in the expanded release, while Trance should be somewhere in the mid-six figures.

Writer/director Terence Malick, who is famous for taking years to edit films, has a surprise: another film just two years after his last, The Tree of Life. Ben Affleck, Olga Kurylenko and Rachel McAdams star in To the Wonder (5 locations), which FJI critic Chris Barsanti describes as "a
floating beauty of a philosophical love story that can’t yank its
head out of the wispy clouds of meaning long enough to consider the
humans mucking about on terra firma." That about sums up the artistic work, which has beautiful visuals but not much of a plot.

On Monday, we'll see if 42 scored and if Scary Movie 5 revived the aging franchise.