Steven Spielberg and George Lucas make surprising predictions about the future of exhibition

Is the future of the exhibition industry a return to the past, when fewer movies released, and they played for a year at a time? At the opening of a new building at USC's School of Cinematic Arts, George Lucas and Steven Spielberg offered predictions about the future of the industry that may be surprising even for those tuned into the business. Spielberg predicted that several high-profile flops could dramatically transform the production and distribution plans of the major studios. Fewer big

films would release. Those that made the cut would play longer in theatres, with a tiered pricing structure. Films like Spielberg's Lincoln would cost less to see than a big-budget blockbuster. In the current climate, both Lucas and Spielberg said it's harder even for titans like themselves to get movies made. Meanwhile, most ideas from emerging filmmakers are too niche to catch the attention of major studios. The movie environment stands in stark contrast to cable offerings, which have turned niche-targeted programs into big money. When it comes to the movies, marketing is still about content that will hit all four quadrants of viewers.

From where Spielberg and Lucas are standing, that may be the future of exhibition, but they don't say much about what's happening on the other end of the market, where indie theatrical releases have been proliferating. In actuality, more movies are releasing in theatres than ever. Here at Film Journal, we often review fifteen movies a week. That's a lot of movies that are at least getting a cursory theatrical release. Lower-budget movies have the advantage of affordable digital cameras and tools like Final Cut Pro that truly make filmmaking affordable to more people. Before digital, the cost of film was exorbitant for even indie filmmakers, but now the cost of buying stock and post-processing has virtually disappeared. For many of these movies, a short theatrical release is used to make these projects more viable in the aftermarket. VOD, Netflix, Hulu, and Amazon can be great places for a small indie to find an audience. Spielberg did praise Netflix in his remarks, but didn't offer more details about the growth in that sector. As surprising as Spielberg and Lucas' predictions are, there is likely truth to their statements: change is afoot. With all of the change going on in the indie markets, it may just be a matter of those changes trickling up to the studios. Indies don't have the heft to stay the course even in strong winds, while studios do. But eventually, the studios will be sailing in the same trade winds as everyone else.