In a weekend filled with strong films, where the total box office should exceed $200 million, at least one may end up being squeezed out. Many in the industry expect that film to be World War Z (3,607 theatres), an expensive tentpole that may have a hard time opening above $50 million. Originally aiming for a Christmas release, Paramount scrapped the third act and did extensive reshoots to salvage the Brad Pitt-led zombie feature. Our critic Chris Barsanti found the finished product to contain traces of these problems, calling the globe-spanning movie "ambitious but confused." I found the tale of a zombie epidemic to be overhauled to my satisfaction--extremely frightening but also the kind of movie that favors more strategic zombie-killing over video game-style wholesale slaughtering. Early word-of-mouth among viewers and critics (68% of Rotten Tomatoes critics dubbed WWZ "fresh"), along with strong overseas returns, should help World War Z have stamina long after opening weekend. This weekend it will have to swim against the current, going against the second weekend of Man of Steel, which could top $50 million.
The kids who originally saw Monsters Inc. twelve years ago are all grown up, and some of them may even be in college. So it makes some sense that the prequel to the movie, Monsters University (4,004 theatres), takes place in the halls of higher education. While Pixar movies often do well with all-ages audiences, including young adults, FJI critic Daniel Eagan predicts that "customers who
remember the studio's earlier efforts may be less impressed by a
movie so calculated and predictable." Signs of Pixar's top-dog rank are there, from a "consistently pleasant" feel to great animation, but the plot "plays out like a standard college
comedy, a cleaned-up Adam Sandler or Will Ferrell vehicle." Those looking for another Up or Wall-E may want to skip this one, but it should still open north of $70 million.
After a strong debut weekend, The Bling Ring will expand in to 650 theatres. A24, the distributor behind another bad-teen film, Spring Breakers, is deploying a similar expansion strategy: follow a strong opening weekend with an aggressive expansion. Bling Ring will follow in Spring Breakers' footsteps, but shave 350 theatres off its second-week expansion total to compensate for its lower opening weekend. The two movies pair an auteur director (Harmony Korine, Sofia Coppola) with a subject filled with mass appeal--teens gone wild. In this case, the teens robbed the houses of celebrities in order to don their clothes, a true-life story that Coppola uses to offer slivers of commentary on youth culture and wealth.
On Monday, we'll see if World War Z was able to gain on Monsters University's perceived lead going into the weekend, and if Bling Ring will be able to replicate the second-week success of Spring Breakers.
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