'Elysium' should lead, with 'Planes' at its tail

This weekend brings four new releases, two today and two that jumped the gun with an early release on Wednesday. The frontrunner is Elysium (3,284 theatres), which has two things going for it: District 9 writer/director Neill Blomkamp, and star Matt Damon. Critics have been

more tepid towards Elysium: It's tracking just 66% positive, compared to District 9's 90% "Fresh" rating (it also scored an Oscar nod for Best Picture). Our critic Michael Sauter was one of those who came out in favor of the futuristic dystopia. He calls out its "hurtling momentum,
with enough boom-crash-splatter explosiveness to wow even the most
hardened action junkie," which pairs well with a "topical, deeply
resonant theme and premise." Others (including myself) thought the plot had some gaping Swiss cheese-holes, with commentary not nearly as biting as District 9, and I suspect audiences will come away with a similar spectrum of reactions. Curiosity and name-brand recognition should bring Elysium over a $30 million opening.

Joining Elysium is Planes (3,702 theatres), the final animated release of the summer. Both Turbo and live-action/animation hybrid The Smurfs 2 fell victim to animation fatigue, and the huge amount of animated product in release should definitely take a slice out of Planes' pie. An opening over $20 million would be good news for this "simplistic knockoff" of Cars, which Disney moved from direct-to-video to theatrical release. "Why didn’t someone bring the pixie dust that makes
Pixar’s animated flicks a cut above in wit, style and detail?" our critic Harry Haun bemoans. Still, plenty of young kids are obsessed with planes, cars, and all things mechanical, and this movie will be catnip to those youngsters--if not the parents who bring them to theatres.

A low-level pot dealer (Jason Sudeikis) becomes a drug runner to get himself out of a pinch in We're the Millers (3,260 theatres), assembling a fake family (including Jennifer Aniston as a stripper) in the process. Our critic David Noh loved the cast and the premise, but regrets that the "direction and writing are so scattershot, they engender only
fitful amusement." A real highlight is Nick Offerman as a goody two-shoes RV owner--he's
probably one of my favorite comedy players right now. We're the Millers earned $6.7 million on Wednesday, and its totals should rise to the upper-$20 millions by Monday.

Percy Jackson: Sea of Monsters (3,031 theatres) also opened on Wednesday, earning $5.4 million, which also should put it on track for a weekend somewhere north of $20 million. This is an action-fantasy for the tween set, with "Harry Potter-esque assets" that become less appealing the older and more discerning the audience gets, according to FJI's Doris Toumarkine.

This weekend's specialty offerings include In a World (3 theatres), a comedy starring Lake Bell as a wannabe voiceover artist that "has its moments," according to Toumarkine. Woody Allen's Blue Jasmine will expand from 50 to 116 locations in its third week.

On Monday, we'll see if Elysium indeed grabbed the top spot, and how the other three new releases finished in this close August weekend.