‘Hercules’ to fall in step behind ‘Lone Survivor’

If early tracking reports bear out, the son of Zeus is no match for the U.S. Navy SEALs (now there’s an infomercial for you). Lone Survivor, the critically acclaimed war drama starring Mark Wahlberg and based on a real-life disastrous, albeit heroic, 2005 SEALs mission in Afghanistan, expands wide to 2,876 theatres today. Comparable combat films Zero Dark Thirty and Black Hawk Down managed to pull in figures in the low-to-mid $20-million range over their opening weekends (in 2012 and 2001, respectively), setting mid-January precedents many believe Lone Survivor could easily match. Universal, however, has released more conservative estimates, predicting their film will bow somewhere in the high teens.

The other high-profile release opening nationwide this weekend, The Legend of Hercules, isn’t expected to make its competitors work hard for their survival. Although promos have Kellan Lutz looking appropriately muscular, and the CGI visuals boasting the appropriate fanboy aesthetic, there’s been little advance hype, from either critics or fans, surrounding this latest variation on the 300 formula. Hercules will likely haul in around $10 million, and may not even crack the weekend’s Top 5. However, those still gunning for an epic take on the epic tale of a son-of-a-god can rest assured: Brett Ratner will release his version, starring The Rock, this July. If that doesn’t do it for you, there’s always the Zealot: The Life and Times of Jesus of Nazareth adaptation.

Over in the specialty realm, Spike Jonze’s Her is poised to expand to 1,729 locations. The quirky tale of fraught love between man and machine has so far earned $3.2 million and received generally favorable reviews, though given its strange/original subject matter, pundits are unsure of its continued success. Similar oddball titles, such as Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind and Lost in Translation, however, managed to play very well, so we’ll see if cerebral cinemagoers can help Her reach the $5 million mark.

Finally, August: Osage County and Inside Llewyn Davis will also continue their rollouts. August will screen in 905 theatres, while Llewyn will play in 729.

In sum, the weekend’s breakdown will likely go something like this:

1. Lone Survivor


2. Frozen (No, audiences can’t let it go)


3. The Wolf of Wall Street


4. The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug


5. American Hustle