'Noah’ to flood theatres

Will all the controversy and all the press awarded the controversy reap dividends at the box office this weekend? That’s the question facing Darren Aronofsky’s Noah. The director’s Biblical epic (action movie? Disaster flick? Faith-based offering? The latter seems the most unlikely…) opens in 3,500 theatres today. The familiar story of a man, a flood, and a host of animals boasts a trio of recognizable names: Jennifer Connelly, who is aces at playing crazy Russell Crowe’s supportive wife; Emma Watson; and of course, Crowe himself. Aronofsky, who directed 2010’s Academy Award-winning Black Swan, also brings a formidable fanbase to the table. All told, Paramount is expecting returns to tally out to between $30 and $33 million. Noah is already performing well overseas, in South Korea and Mexico specifically, where it bowed last week. Even if the movie fails to gain traction in the United States, international sales should help keep it out of the red.

Cesar Chavez, about the life and work of the iconic Mexican civil-rights activist, and Sabotage, starring the iconic (of a different sort) Arnold Schwarzenegger, also open this weekend, though neither is expected to do boffo business. Playing in 2,486 locations, the latter is Schwarzenegger’s most recent attempt at a big-screen comeback. His last two efforts, 2013's The Last Stand and Escape Plan, barely made a splash at the box office and didn’t do much to revive his acting career. With poor reviews (21 percent rotten on Rotten Tomatoes) and a rote drug-cartel-and-kidnapping plotline, it would be surprising if Sabotage proved the hit Arnold has been waiting for. Expect an opening weekend gross of under $10 million.

Cesar Chavez has also received poor reviews (37 percent rotten), however, a strong Hispanic turnout could propel the film to modest success. Opening in 644 locations, Chavez could pull in as much as, or even more than, $5 million.

Building momentum like a snowball racing down one of those mountains framing The Grand Budapest Hotel, Wes Anderson’s specialty hit expands yet again this weekend, to 1,000 theatres. Jason Bateman’s Bad Words finally gets its wide release (800 theatres) today, but having disappointed in limited release the past two weekends, expectations for the movie’s broader national performance are low.

Cannes reception bodes well for June release 'Bling Ring'

The Cannes crowd reportedly gave a chilly reception to The Great Gatsby, but early reviews for Sofia Coppola's The Bling Ring have been more positive. It's worth noting that these reactions come from the very same crowd that booed her 2004 effort, Marie Antoinette. The A24 Films release comes out in the U.S. on June 14, and I think it could do big business, drawing in young crowds who think they're getting another Mean Girls along with cinephiles interested in Coppola's latest.

Variety and THR came in with opposite reactions, though both had positive things to say. THR called the work "beautifully shot but light on social commentary," while Variety opined that "when future generations want to understand how we lived at the dawn of the plugged-in, privacy-free, Paris Hilton-ized 21st century, there will likely be few films more instructive than The Bling Ring." THR appears to be in the minority with this view, but it's interesting that one critic argues there is no larger statement, while the other thinks the work is emblematic of a generation.

Coppola based her screenplay on an article in Vanity Fair about the real-life Bling Ring, a group of kids who decided to rob celebrities of their clothes and Birkin bags. They hit Paris Hilton, Lindsay Lohan, Orlando Bloom, and Megan Fox before they were finally caught on surveillance cameras and stood trial. Emma Watson leads a cast of unknowns who play the rest of the five-fingered discount crew, and Leslie Mann plays the goofy, hippie mom who homeschools Watson and her best friend and adopted sister (Taissa Farmiga, who is the younger sister, by 21 years, of actress Vera Farmiga). Coppola has always been fascinated by celebrity, but she usually focuses on the ennui of the already famous. This time, she focuses on the wannabes. Growing up just outside the world of the rich and famous, they have a sense of entitlement about their actions. Coppola wisely doesn't mock them within the film, leading to a "intriguingly intuitive and atmospheric movie," according to the Guardian.

A24 is the same distributor that released Spring Breakers, and their trio of releases so far have focused on youth, transgression, and celebrity, to varying degrees. In an roundup, The New York Times' A.O. Scott grouped together Spring Breakers, The Great Gatsby, and The Bling Ring, calling them "fables of acquisition" that speak to the current articulation of the American Dream. If Bling Ring indeed hits a cultural sweet spot, it's possible the movie could catch on beyond the "target hipster demo" predicted by Variety.

Emma Watson and Sofia Coppola team up for 'The Bling Ring'

Every once in a while you hear of a project pairing that makes perfect sense. That's how I feel about Sofia Coppola directing The Bling Ring. The movie will be based on the true story of a few status-conscious L.A. teenagers who stole clothes, jewelry, cash, and drugs from celebrities such as Paris Hilton and Lindsay Lohan. They broke in, raided their closets, and then wore the stolen loot out to the clubs frequented by the same celebrities.

The teens were profiled in a memorable 2010 Vanity Fair article. While they came from backgrounds characterized by strife, they were also the product of fairly well-off families, many of whom had jobs in the movie industry. Adding another dimension to the whole tale, two of the teens were going to potentially be celebrities themselves. They were being followed for a reality show called "Pretty Wild." That got complicated once its stars were arrested. Lifetime got to the project first, though I imagine the TV movie will not bear more than a passing resemblance to Coppola's project.

Coppola's known for her moody, character-driven pieces. I loved her most recent work, Somewhere, which centered on a bored and depressed celebrity living at the Chateau Marmont reconnecting with his daughter. I think The Bling Ring will be a good chance for her to combine her knack for ennui with an actual plot. Coppola knocks tone out of the park, but she rarely tries to combine that with actual action and thrills.  She's said she wants to use the case to "reveal a sobering view of our modern culture" and comment on the celebrity machine. Who better to do that than Coppola?

She's already cast Harry Potter's Emma Watson in one of the lead roles. In the real-life case, there were a few major players and more on the sidelines, so I imagine the number of leads could depend on what works for the adaptation. Looking up to celebrities is nothing new, but the extremes these kids went to in order to feel like they were as cool as celebrities is extreme. At the same time, tabloids like TMZ have further removed the wall between the star and the audience. These paparazzi are like private detectives, following the stars' every move. Perhaps it's only a natural extension of this invasion of privacy that drove the teens to break into their houses and steal everything they thought would make them like the pretty faces they saw in the magazines. Given Coppola's already insidery view on celebrity, she'll be able to make this tale both real and precisely critical.