Can Blu fly past the Captain?

Rio 2 and Captain America: The Winter Soldier will both vie for the top slot at the box office this Friday-Sunday. The former is one of the weekend’s new major releases and the follow-up to the popular Rio, an animated kids’ film about a pair of endangered macaws (voiced by Jesse Eisenberg and Anne Hathaway).  When it opened in spring of 2011, Rio grossed almost $40 million. Its successor is currently tracking in the high-$30-to-low-$40-millions range, prompting many pundits to speculate it should match, possibly even better, the original. If either proves to be the case, Rio 2 will give holdover Captain America: The Winter Soldier a run for its sky-high pile of dough. Given positive critical reviews and smiling word-of-mouth, The Winter Soldier is expected to hold well. However, comic book movies often plummet their second weekend in theatres – Iron Man 3 dipped 58 percent, for example – so the title of Weekend’s Top Earner is really up for grabs.

Beginning today and with a slightly smaller platform than Rio 2, which opens in 3,948 locations, the latest sports film to star Kevin Costner, Draft Day, will screen in 2,781 theatres. The movie gives a fictionalized behind-the-scenes look at the unpublicized maneuvering that takes place in the lead-up to the NFL draft. Costner is firmly ensconced in familiar territory here, playing the American underdog everyman fighting for good amidst the corrupt milieu of an American sports industry. Field of Dreams, Bull Durham and Tin Cup are among Costner’s best-loved movies, and Draft Day looks to repeat the old-fashioned though nonetheless satisfying story arc characteristic of those films. Will audiences go for Costner’s brand of comfort? Reviews for Draft Day aren’t great, and recent sports movies haven’t opened very strong: Moneyball, which is basically the baseball version of Day, had great buzz going for it and still only managed to rake in $19.5 million over its opening weekend. Distributor Lionsgate believes Draft Day will gross in the low teens.

The last new major release to open this weekend is also the first horror offering since January’s Devil’s Due. Oculus will screen in 2,648 theatres. The flick has producer Jason Blum (the Paranormal Activity movies) behind it, and has been pretty well reviewed, though box-office expectations are modest. Returns around $11 or $12 million would be considered solid.

Finally, the specialty realm has two new offerings of its own in Joe, starring Nicolas Cage and directed by cult favorite David Gordon Green, and Cuban Fury, a salsa comedy starring Nick Frost and Rashida Jones. The latter is playing in 79 theatres while the former will start off its B.O. run in 48 locations.

'Lion King' reigns supreme over 'Moneyball' and 'Dolphin Tale'

By Sarah Sluis

For the second week in a row, the re-release of The Lion King (which included 3D screens) grabbed the most box office, finishing with $22.1 million, a dip of 26%. The success of Disney's classic animated tale will surely inspire other studios to scramble to find movies in their libraries to re-release and add more to their bottom lines. However, The Lion King is part of a rarefied group. With the extra $60 million the movie has earned, it's now the twelfth-highest grossing movie of all time, domestically. In fact, The Lion King may make its way into the top ten if it stays in release for a couple more weeks.

According to weekend estimates, Moneyball currently has a narrow claim on second place over Dolphin Tale, earning $20.6 million to the third place finisher's $20.2 million. While the positive reviews at the Toronto Film Festival all but guaranteed that Moneyball would debut strongly, Dolphin Tale's success is a bit more of a surprise. The movie earned an A+ CinemaScore from viewers, the same high mark given by Soul Surfer's audience. Inspirational, PG-rated movies are something of a rarity in the market, and the addition of an injured dolphin to the formula (hearkening back to Free Willy) probably boosted returns even higher. Alcon Entertainment, which produced The Blind Side, was also behind Dolphin Tale. There's a certain group of movies about overcoming adversity that seem to hit a sweet spot with viewers. It can't be a depressing, Precious level of adversity, but just enough to warm the heart. These kinds of movies (I'm thinking of Marley & Me, The Pursuit of Happyness, Soul Surfer, The Blind Side) have resonated widely with audiences.

Taylor Lautner should redouble his efforts in romances like the Twilight series because Abduction earned $11.2 million by wrangling up audiences that were 68% female and mostly under 25--the opposite of a normal action movie's demographics. However, considering critics gave the movie a 3% positive rating, an eight-digit opening weekend is probably the best this poorly received movie can hope for. Unsurprisingly, females under 18 gave the movie an A-, while everyone else's scores averaged out to a B-.

Killer Elite, the first effort from newbie distributor Open Road, finished on the low side of expectations with $9.5 million. Jason Statham is something of an action movie workhorse, but many of his other actioners have doubled this opening weekend, including The Mechanic and Transporter 3. Still, with its solid cast, which includes Robert De Niro and Clive Owen, this movie should do well in home markets.

The gay romance Weekend, which our critic David Noh raved about, should have planned for a bigger run. It earned $25,000 over the weekend to sold-out screenings at one theatre. Its performance in coming weekends should be strong, especially if it expands to other locations. Other specialty releases had more middling results. Machine Gun Preacher averaged $11,000 per screen at four locations. Cameron Crowe-directed rockumentary Pearl Jam Twenty did slightly better, averaging $12,700 per screen at seven locations.

This Friday, cancer comedy 50/50 will hit theatres along with romantic comedy What's Your Number?, the thriller Dream House and the faith-based drama Courageous.

'Moneyball' aims for the bleachers

By Sarah Sluis

The fall is known for being a quiet time for movies, but this year we're already seeing a potential Oscar contender, Moneyball (2,993 theatres), coming out to entertain adult audiences. Sony appears to be repeating the same strategy they used for last year's The Social Network, which opened October 1st and still managed to have a strong presence during awards season. Critic Rex Roberts praises the movie for turning the antics of number-crunching back-office executives into "scintillating cinema" that is "eminently enjoyable." Brad Pitt stars as Billy Beane, a one-time potential star prospect who failed in the major leagues and now manages the impoverished Oakland A's. With the help of a young Yalie (Jonah Hill), he builds a record-breaking team on a low budget by analyzing little-known stats like on-base percentages. Moneyball could top $20 million, especially as critics pile on their love for the movie, which is currently rating 92% positive on Rotten Tomatoes.

Moneyball's toughest competitor will be a feel-good movie with maimed pets and Morgan Freeman. Dolphin Tale (3,507 theatres) is the latest from Alcon Entertainment, which produced The Blind Side. THR's Todd McCarthy described the movie as "an appealing family film that doesn't know when to quit with the uplift." The true-life story centers on a dolphin with an injured tail who receives a prosthetic appendage with the help of community members (including a benevolent billionaire). The aww factor should bring families to the theatre if they aren't catching up on last week's winner, the re-release of The Lion King.

Twilight fans are expected to turn out en masse for Abduction (3,118 theatres), which stars Taylor Lautner, the werewolf boy in the supernatural series. Those that don't fall into the teen girl demographic should only go if they're interested in seeing "the year's most entertaining bad film," a superlative given by critic David Noh. "Unintentional laughs" come from lines like "There's a bomb in the oven" and the threat "I will kill all your friends on Facebook."

Killer Elite (2,986 theatres), the first film from AMC/Regal-created distributor Open Road Films, is "a confusing, unsatisfying action thriller," according to critic Daniel Eagan. Starring Jason Statham, Robert De Niro, and Clive Owen, the movie jumbles together former secret service agents, fights over Middle Eastern oil, and mercenaries in the "clumsy and preposterous" tale. An opening weekend around $10 million is expected, with Abduction and Killer Elite considered close competitiors.

On the specialty front, Noh praises Weekend (1 theatre) as "one of the best gay films ever made," with an "emotional payoff" at the end that's "beautifully observed and quite devastating." I really hate the title of Machine Gun Preacher (4 theatres), which sounds like an exploitation film but is actually the tale of an ex-con (Gerard Butler) who finds God and goes to Sudan and Uganda to help those in need. Critic Kirk Honeycutt acknowledged that it's "solid, worthy effort, but doesn't like to ask too many questions," or delve into a critique of the main character's choices or methods.

On Monday, we'll see in Moneyball hit it out of the park and if audiences responded to the feel-good premise of Dolphin Tale.