Surprise! Consumers aren't that willing to pay more for 3D

By Sarah Sluis

3D movies have been bringing in a lot of money for studios, enough to stem the tide of decreasing theatre attendance. But perhaps the studios should rethink their strategy, and charge their customers less money for more movie. At least that's what the latest study from PricewaterhouseCoopers says. According to a poll they cite, 77% of people will not pay a surcharge of $4 or more.

I'm not surprised. Though the perks of writing about film means not having to fork over your credit card to see a movie, earlier this year I reviewed the not-so-great 3D Wes Craven movie My Soul to Take at the Regal Union Square in New York, NY, where the ticket price, including the 3D surcharge, added up to $17.50. That kind of moola is worth it for a spectacle like Avatar, but for a run-of-the-mill horror flick, which didn't even do cool things with 3D to make it worth my extra money? Nope.

If so many people are unwilling to pay for 3D, why is 50-70% of box-office revenue coming from 3D screens? Many in the movie business cite the 80-20 rule: 80% of ticket sales come from 20% of the people. Frequent moviegoers are a breed of their own, attending cinemas regularly and often being less discriminating about the content since they're seeing so many movies. Behemoths like Avatar draw in the less-frequent moviegoers, who only go to movies for special occasions. People in both of these groups can justify spending extra to see Toy Story 3 or Alice in Wonderland in 3D. However, it's unlikely that this will hold. There are forty films coming out next year in 3D, and I doubt that all of them will be worth the higher ticket price.

The report hints that 3D surcharges are untenable, but I don't agree. Sure, I'd like to see 3D movies with no surcharge (and if you're choosing between two movies you're interested in equally, wouldn't the 3D one win if it were the same price?), but I would also feel fine with a pared-down surcharge of a dollar or two.

While paying more to see a movie in 3D makes sense for big, must-see pictures, it's unlikely that the forty 3D films coming out next year will live up to their promise. As I check Fandango, tickets for The Green Hornet are going for $13, The Green Hornet 3D is going for $17.50, and The Green Hornet 3D IMAX will run you $19, before popcorn. For a family of four (2 adults, 2 children), that would run $45 for basic, $62 for 3D, and $69 for 3D IMAX, 35% more than seeing the comic book film in 2D. Once the novelty of 3D wears off, will people choose to add 3D glasses to their outing or the popcorn combo deluxe?

'True Grit' overtakes 'Little Fockers'

By Sarah Sluis

True Grit won the box-office horse race, overtaking Meet the Fockers in its third week of release. The two films' race is a lesson in the power of the long tail: True Grit dipped 38% to $15 million, while Little Fockers fell 47% to $13.7 million. Because of Little Focker's higher opening, the comedy's total take is $123 million to the Western's $110 million, but the gap could close if True Grit continues to play strong (and, fingers crossed, receives a boost from Academy Award nominations).

Nicolas Cage's turn in Season of the Witch eked over the eight-figure mark, coming up with $10.7 million. Critics (and audiences) were not kind to the film, which reportedly had a $40 million budget. The supernatural action adventure/kinda comedy/historical film may have been the victim of too much genre mixing, leaving audiences confused about what kind of movie they were signing up for.

Country Strong mustered up $7.3 million in its expansion to 1,424 theatres. Though the number may be small, so was the release, and the country music drama averaged $5,126 per-screen, the third-best average in the top ten. A common complaint: star Gwyneth Paltrow looking way too nice to play an alcoholic music star.

In its second weekend, Blue Valentine went from 4 to 40 theatres and gathered $18,000 per screen. The per-screen average fell by slightly more than half from its debut, but given the rapid expansion this un-romance is in good shape. Within the top ten, specialty films rose even higher. Black Swan fared the best, descending just 6% from last week to earn $8.3 million. With fewer new releases as competition, the ballet-horror-drama rose from ninth to fifth place. The Fighter grabbed seventh place, dipping 30% to ring in $7 million. The King's Speech dropped 12% to $6.8 million. Notably, the movie is still in just 758 theatres and boasts the highest per-screen average in the top ten. Methinks this film will go big once Academy Award nominations are announced.

Mercifully for the future of children's animated movies, Tangled has trounced Yogi Bear. Though Tangled has been in release for three more weeks than Yogi Bear, the family offerings are performing neck-and-neck: Yogi Bear finished with $6.8 million this weekend and Tangled with $5.2. Tangled has $175 million in the bank, while Yogi Bear has around $75 million. This may not prevent the release of next winter's Alvin and the Chipmunks: Chipwrecked, but here's hoping there won't be a sequel to the cartoon adaptation our critic Ethan Alter called a "naked cash-grab."

This Friday, comic book adaptation The Green Hornet will debut alongside cheating spouse comedy The Dilemma.

Cool prospects for 'Season of the Witch'

By Sarah Sluis

In the second post-Christmas weekend at the box office, the holiday releases are expected to reign supreme. True Grit closed the gap between itself and Little Fockers last weekend, and this weekend the Coen Brothers' Western remake could rise to first place, especially since it recently started beating Fockers at the weekday box office.

The only new wide release this weekend is Season of the Witch (2,816 theatres), Relativity Media's first outing as a distributor. Well, they can only go up from here. Nicolas Cage stars in this 14th century witch-hunting, witch-saving "jocular bromance," as described by critic Maitland McDonagh. The historical adventure "can by no stretch of the imagination be called a good movie," McDonagh concedes, before noting the movie is "weirdly entertaining." The guess for this film is somewhere north of $10 million.

Country Strong debuted two weeks ago for an awards-qualifying run in a couple of theatres, but this week it expands to 1,424. The awards release may have been in vain, however, considering the film's received scathing reviews (The NY Post dubbed it a "Twang Wreck") and a mere 17% rating on Rotten Tomatoes. According to critic Rex Roberts, the blame should rest on writer and director Shana Feste, who "smothers [Paltrow's] perfectly fine performance with so much red-eyed gravy we can't take her or any of the characters seriously."

After an opening weekend that ended with a $48,000 per-screen average, Blue Valentine expands to ten times as many locations (40 theatres). If it can hold on to half its opening average, the drama of a fading romance will be in excellent shape. Black Swan, The Fighter, and The King's Speech, which were rounding out the top ten, have risen to spots in the top six during the week. They may have difficulty holding onto that improvement over the weekend, when more families will return to the theatres.

On Monday, I'll determine if Season of the Witch was more of a flop than Cage's The Sorcerer's Apprentice, if audiences liked Country Strong more than the critics did, and if the Oscar-seeking elite held onto their top ten positions.

Angelina Jolie as Cleopatra?

By Sarah Sluis

Making a movie version of Cleopatra is a dicey proposition. The 1963 film starring Elizabeth Taylor is famous for being an extravagant, way-over-budget flop. Could Cleopatra as a subject be cursed?

Enter Angelina Jolie, who has almost as many kids as Elizabeth Taylor had husbands (Jolie has six children, Taylor had eight marriages to seven husbands). Like Taylor, she's a larger-than-life tabloid
figure with the kind of star persona that easily lets the public cast her in the role of a queen. Jolie's done some swords-and-sandals work before with Alexander, though this role would take her in a different, more Evelyn Salt direction: Paul Greengrass (the Bourne series) is one of many in contention for the directing spot. James Cameron reportedly expressed interest at one point, but he will be busy with the Avatar sequels unless this project is put on hold for another five years or so.

The change comes from the source material. The biography Cleopatra: A Life, written by Stacy Schiff, recasts Cleopatra as a woman who wielded her power through strategy and politics, not sex appeal. Jolie has distinguished herself by turning herself into something of an action hero through such roles as Salt, originally written for a male actor, Wanted, Mr. and Mrs. Smith, and her breakout role Lara Croft: Tomb Raider. I doubt she would be interested in the part unless this Cleopatra displayed some meatiness and intelligence along with her seductiveness. The Sony project also has Scott Rudin on board as a producer, someone who's known more for arthouse award winners than big-scale action. Could Cleopatra (gasp) mix battles and political intrigue with characterization and drama? A clue: Brian Helgeland, who has written screenplays for projects both mediocre (Robin Hood, Cirque du Freak) and fantastic (L.A. Confidential, Mystic River) worked on the script. He's frequently an adapter, so if the source material is as good as everyone's saying, the project should be in good shape.

Will 'Ouija' go the 'Battleship' route?

By Sarah Sluis

In the past few years, it seems comic book adaptations have been supplanted by adaptations of brands that don't even have a story attached to them. It was as if action figures (Stretch Armstrong) led to board games (Battleship, Candy Land) which led to the technically-a-board-game adaptation Ouija, the rights to which are held by Hasbro. To my mind, the only successful non-book/play/comic book
adaptation wasPirates of the Caribbean. There were just a handful of references to the theme park ride, and the rest was straight-up Jack Sparrow with eyeliner. Based on what Universal's doing with Battleship, I'm not enthused about what they have in store for Ouija.

To refresh, Battleship is the two-person game involving shouting out numbers on your opponent's grid (A-7!, J-8!), and playing cat-and-mouse with your opponent until they have sunk all your battleships. With all that tension from constant evasion, it sounds like Crimson Tide all over again, right? Wrong. The Universal version is not about two boats chasing each other, but about ALIENS. An "armada" of aliens out for destruction, to be specific. It's almost as if the writer of the movie really wanted to make a sci-fi movie and just decided add some aliens. And it has pop singer Rihanna in it, a left-field choice that feels a little like a tone-deaf marketing ploy. Without a screen persona, it would have been better if she started out in something music-oriented to get audiences used to seeing her on screen.

The plot of Ouija isn't out on the Internet yet, but since it's also a Universal project I wouldn't be surprised if they tried to turn what obviously should be a horror film into a car-chase actioner or romantic comedy. In fact, after doing some more extensive Googling, I discover I'm actually on the right track. According to Newsinfilm.com, "Ouija will not take the expected supernatural horror angle � strange consider Michael Bay's horror house Platinum Dunes is producing � but will follow a more Indiana Jones type journey to discovery. " I am up in arms. Universal has had one flop after another, and it's decisions like these that prevent anyone over the age of thirteen from enjoying such misguided releases.

Breaking down the Producers Guild nominees

By Sarah Sluis

Last year, the Producers Guild of America crowned The Hurt Locker as the top film of 2009. The PGA has correctly predicted the majority of Oscar Best Picture winners, making its nominee list a much-regarded crystal ball for the eventual Academy nominees and winners. The PGA nominates ten films, just like the Oscars, but at least a couple of movies seem unlikely to receive nods from both the PGA and the Academy.

The best film nominees:
127 Hours
Black Swan
Inception
The Fighter
The Kids Are All Right
The King's Speech
The Social Network
The Town
Toy Story 3
True Grit

Possible Omission #1: The Town. For me, this movie wasn't anything special. Spike Lee's 2006 movie Inside Man was a much more surprising, fun bank robbery movie, and it didn't get any love in awards season. The Town had some thrilling bank robbery scenes, but its Boston atmosphere didn't totally draw me and the romance felt like star-director Ben Affleck grabbing at air.

Possible Omission #2: Toy Story 3. Though this film has showed up on one top ten list after another, it's most likely that the movie will end up with a nomination in the animated category, where I hope it has tough competition from the DreamWorks Animation stunner How to Train Your Dragon.

Possible Omission #3: 127 Hours. Within the blogosphere, this movie's been taking the biggest beating, with many ruling it out because it failed to catch fire at the box office. Also, some Academy viewers were reportedly "afraid" to see the amputation scene, leading James Franco to film a video with his grandma, who wore a sweatshirt reading "I Kept My Eyes Open for 127 Hours."

What films could fill possibly end up in the Academy top ten? My votes are going to Winter's Bone and Blue Valentine. Winter's Bone is more likely to receive an acting nomination than a Best Picture one, but the movie is so affecting, I can't imagine Oscar voters not responding. Blue Valentine is much tougher to watch (and that's taking Winter's Bone's gory closing scene into account), and features a much younger, blue-collar couple--the opposite of a typical Academy voter. The seven remaining films seem highly probable nominees to me: Inception's the blockbuster everyone can get behind, The Kids Are All Right is the small indie that could, and most of the other specialty film nominees have risen into the top ten: True Grit, Black Swan, The King's Speech, and The Fighter are all earning millions of dollars a week, a pretty big change from last year, when only Up in the Air was achieving that mixture of critical and commercial success at the end-of-the-year box office. The Academy Award nominations are only three weeks away, on Jan. 25, and these nominations from the PGA have solidified the majors. Now it's up to the Academy to make some last minute substitutions in the game.

'Little Fockers' dips in a strong post-Christmas weekend

By Sarah Sluis

Only during the holiday season can seven out of the top ten films post gains over the previous weekend. The top three films all fell from their lofty heights, but the rest of the top ten increased 10-70% from last week. Little Fockers maintained its lead, but fell the furthest, 14%, to $26.3 million. Compared to Meet the Parents and Meet the Fockers, this sequel both opened lower and is falling faster. Could this be the end of the Focker clan?

True Grit dipped just 1% to $24.5 million, narrowing the gap between the western remake and the comedy sequel. The Coen Brothers' latest has already exceeded the total gross of their previous western, No Country for Old Men, and it's fairly certain that True Grit will pass the $100 million mark, a first for the multi-hyphenate team.

The rest of the top ten was populated by family films and awards contenders. The broad, four-quadrant film Tron: Legacy grabbed third place with a 4% fall and another $18.3 million in the bank. Yogi Bear came next with $13 million, a 65% gain from the previous weekend, followed by The Chronicles of Narnia: The Voyage of the Dawn Treader, which went up 10% to $10.5 million. Tangled, which has been out for a month and a half, posted a 55% gain and $10 million, a well-deserved bump for this top-notch animated film. Gulliver's Travels, which opened to just $7 million, got up to $9 million in its second week, but I'd still call it a flop.

Among specialty films, The Fighter filled the most seats ($10 million), followed by the kinda campy Black Swan ($8.4 million) and lively historical tale The King's Speech ($7.6 million).

After an alarmingly small debut last week (an $8,650 per-screen average), Country Strong made a rare second-week rebound, earning $21,500 per screen on its two-screen release. The drama will move into wide release this Friday, so perhaps its weak first-week finish was the result of miscalibrated marketing.

The Ryan Gosling/Michelle Williams un-romance Blue Valentine made an impressive debut with a $45,000 per-screen average. The high average validates the film's position as an awards contender and puts it on the path to successful expansion. Director Mike Leigh's slice-of-life tale Another Year unspooled in six locations, earning an average of $20,000 at each. Somewhere and The Illusionist, both limited releases in their second week, each improved their per-screen averages, to $17,900 and $16,900 per-screen, respectively.

This Friday, Country Strong will be joined by Season of the Witch, Nicolas Cage's second occult-themed wide release after last summer's The Sorcerer's Apprentice.