Gauging the box-office impact of Superstorm Sandy

At the AMC Lincoln Square on the Upper West Side of Manhattan this afternoon, crowds of families stood in line at the reopened theatre for a matinee screening of Hotel Transylvania. An employee taking tickets reported a long, arduous, and nonsensical commute by bus, but he was still

able to report for work. The neighborhood as a whole was virtually untouched by the Superstorm Sandy that so devastated other parts of New York City and left millions in the region without power. Schools have been cancelled for the entire week, so the screening was likely a much-needed relief for haggard parents coping with having kids unexpectedly at home.

Confusion, though, still ruled the day. "Is this theatre open?" a woman asked an attendant in the lobby of the theatre. As face-palming as that question was, she more likely was inquiring if the theatre was back to normal and running on a regular schedule. That's what the box office may be looking at this weekend. The potential upside for East Coast theatres will be the ability to entertain stir-crazy customers who may be without power, or at least without their regular routine, at home. When else can theatres truly offer refuge through escapist entertainment? The downside is that many people may not even know if their local theatre is open, especially with spotty cell service and limited battery power for surfing the Internet or calling around. Or they may not even have the gas to go to a theatre. Or, maybe their house is under water and they have other, more serious concerns.

Variety offers one figure, courtesy of Disney, that attempts to hone in on the storm's potential financial impact. The distributor reported that "roughly 24% of its most recent openings came from 10 major markets hit by the storm, including New York, Boston, Pittsburgh, Philadelphia, Montreal, Toronto and Washington, D.C. That means those regions would, under normal circumstances, contribute $9.6 million of a $40 million opening for Wreck-It Ralph." If the box office in those regions is down 10-20%, that's $1-2 million. 50% could subtract $5 million from the total. After seeing the crowd turned out for Hotel Transylvania, I think if any picture could weather the aftereffects of Superstorm Sandy, it's a family film. Parents may be grateful for the opportunity to distract their kids for a while, or simply offer them a sense of normalcy.

'The Avengers' on track to dominate 'Dark Shadows'

Dark Shadows overshadowed? That's exactly what this weekend is looking like. Even if The Avengers were to drop by more than half, it would still end up somewhere not too far short of $100 million--not shabby for a second weekend. The Marvel superhero picture has been doing particularly strong business during the weekdays, with daily returns in the teen millions. The giant crowds outside a Times Square theatre in NYC yesterday, uncharacteristic for a weekday, are one such sign that The Avengers is a must-see.. The popularity of the film will probably encourage more people to make it a priority on their "to-do" list.

Johnny Depp and director Tim Burton team up again for Dark Shadows (3,755 theatres), which will share IMAX screens with The Avengers. Based on a popular, low-budget '60s soap opera, this version has plenty of humor. Critic Daniel Eagan predicts Burton's fans will enjoy the gothic picture most, but he also notes there isn't much fresh material: "After 25 years, [Burton's] exquisite visual sense, jaundiced take on characters and relentless pursuit of the macabre have become rote, lifeless, devoid of surprise." However, thanks to Depp's star power and Burton's ability to successfully reinterpret projects (as in Alice in Wonderland), industry estimates have the film performing in the high $30 million range, with a chance of breaking $40 million.

"A scruffily likeable coming-of-age tale," according to FJI critic David Noh, Girl in Progress (322 theatres) stars Cierra Ramirez as a teen girl being a teenager, and Eva Mendes as her mom. Groupon offered a discount to the movie yesterday (two tickets for $12), which may encourage people to see a more low-key movie while the high-octane Avengers is also in the multiplex.

Those in search on an "original" foreign film may want to seek out Where Do We Go Now?, a "fable" about a group of female villagers in Lebanon who vow to keep their men from fighting. For those that enjoyed director Nadine Labaki's first film, Caramel, critic Maria Garcia points out many continuities between the two works that may appeal to those charmed by the Lebanese director's first outing.

On Monday, we'll see how much of its audience The Avengers was able to hold onto, and if the absurdly successful film, which has earned $775 million worldwide to date, is able to cross the $1 billion mark.

Could 'tweet seats' come to movie theatres?

By Sarah Sluis

For me, there's nothing worse than the glow of a cell phone screen out of the corner of my eye when I'm watching a movie. I don't think kindly of these people, either. Is it really that hard not to contact people for two hours? However, for many young people, texting and being constantly available is a way of life. Perhaps movie theatres' unfriendly environment for cell phones is partially to blame for the recent complaints about young people not showing up at the box office. If so, then perhaps movie theatres will be in line to adopt the "tweet seats" talked about in a recent USA Today article.

The newspaper cites a number of entertainment venues (but not movie theatres) that designate the back row as one that is acceptable for tweeting. I actually support this idea for movie theatres, with a few caveats.

1. Getting unwillingly stuck in the tweet row might be worse than getting stuck in the front row for a packed screening.

2. If the "tweet seats" are full or undesirable, people may use the fact that cell phones are allowed at all to justify their cell phone-checking during the show in the rest of the theatre.

3. There may be a bit of a learning curve. People may not understand exactly the concept of "cell phone seats." But isn't that what the pre-movie advertisements are for?

In a best case scenario, "tweet seats" would effectively corral all the would-be cell phone checkers into one place. They can enjoy their show their way, and everyone else can take a break from checking their email for a couple hours.

If movie theatres want to attract a young demographic, "tweet seats" may be it. With digital projection, it would be easy to designate a few theatres with such seats and program more youth-oriented movies in those locations. Most adults want movie theatres to provide a quiet, immersive experience. But most teens who go to the movie theatre on Friday and Saturday nights simply want to hang out with their friends away from their parents. For them, being connected is more important than devoting their full attention to a show (and face it, a lot of movies targeting that demographic don't need a viewer's full attention). If teens are shunning movie theatres, "tweet seats" may bring them back.

'Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides' maps out a first-place weekend

By Sarah Sluis

It's been eight years since Johnny Depp first donned black eyeliner in his memorable portrayal of Captain Jack Sparrow. Now, the fourth film in the series, Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides, will splash into 4,155 theatres. 65% of the theatres will show the film in 3D, along with a record-breaking 257 IMAX screens. The past two Pirates movies have debuted well over $100 million, but a softer $90-100 million opening is expected for the latest installment, which "confirms that the series' charm has worn off," according to FJI critic Ethan Alter. The film's action sequences lack that trademark mix of "combination of thrills and laughs" that initially won over audiences," he says, and in general the movie is "plodding and heavy-handed when it should be breezy and light."

Bridesmaids (2,937 theatres) has been ahead of Thor (3,924 theatres) since Monday, due to its strong word-of-mouth endorsements. On Monday, the female-driven comedy earned just 5% more than Thor, but by Wednesday Bridesmaids pulled in 28% more than the comic book film. Based on these results, Bridesmaids should be a shoo-in for second place.

The specialty film to watch this week is Midnight in Paris (6 theatres). Woody Allen's "Parisian fantasia" has won over critics, which have given the time-travel movie a 90% positive rating on Rotten Tomatoes. Some have called it his best film in years. Owen Wilson stars as a writer entranced by the city of light, and the film is studded with well-known faces like Rachel McAdams, Kathy Bates, French First Lady Carla Bruni, Marion Cotillard, and Michael Sheen. These reviews should give the movie a lifetime gross closer to Vicky Cristina Barcelona's $23.2 million than You Will Meet a Tall Dark Stranger's $3.2 million.

On Monday, we'll see if the performance of Pirates ensures a fifth installment, and if Bridesmaids maintains its audience in its second outing.

'Rio' should fly to the top, with 'Scream 4' close behind

By Sarah Sluis

On the heels of its record-breaking weekend overseas, Rio (3,826 theatres) will open stateside and ruffle the feathers of competing family flick Hop. The CG talking animal flick shows off Rio de Janeiro's beaches and favelas, leading critic Daniel Eagan to predict that "the action, slapstick, and irresistible images of Rio itself will delight children." The film's 3D should boost the box office, but it also adds to the story winningly, by "saving the big effects for special occasions like a fly-around of the Christ the Redeemer statue" and an "encounter with a table saw." Fox should expect at least $30 million this weekend, along with sizeable weekday returns from Spring-breaking kids.

The legendary Scream franchise returns with Scream 4 (3,305 theatres), the first of a planned trilogy of sequels. Veterans of the franchise (Neve Campbell, Courtney Cox, David Arquette) are paired with younger stars (Emma Roberts, Hayden Panettiere), a combination that will be sure to appeal to those who saw the first franchise in theatres as well as younger audiences that discovered the series on video. The movie's self-referential tone has gained some fans among critics, but the New York Times' Mike Hale is not one of them. "Scream 4 replaces the values of storytelling and suspense with the value of being in on the joke," he concludes. This revival of a decade-old franchise should grab at least $20 million at the box office, reflecting a smart move by parent distributor Weinstein Co.

Focusing on the trial of Mary Surratt for her role in the assassination of Abraham Lincoln, The Conspirator (707 theatres) has a "relevancy to recent happenings [which] gives an added frisson of
interest to the story," notes critic Shirley Sealy. With a cast led by Robin Wright, James McAvoy, Tom Wilkinson and Kevin Kline, director Robert Redford "puts together some fine actors giving exceptionally fine performances." This "emotionally powerful story" should crack the top ten with a number in the low single-digit millions.

Targeting those subscribing to tea party politics, Atlas Shrugged: Part I (300 theatres) could be a surprise hit, or, as THR predicts, a flop. Variety notes that the movie is accounting for 15% of advance sales on Fandango. Never underestimate a group's ability to mobilize.

For those living in New York City, the Danish war documentary Armadillo (1 theatre) offers a gripping look into life as a soldier in Afghanistan. I spoke highly of the movie yesterday, and it's a must for fans of Restrepo.

On Monday, we'll see if Rio was able to soar above the $30 million mark and if Scream 4 scared both veteran and newbie audiences.

'Hop' skips and jumps to first place

By Sarah Sluis

Families turned out en masse for Hop, earning the Easter Bunny flick $38.1 million, the highest opening weekend of the year. A number in the high $20 millions was expected, so this opening was leaps and bounds ahead of projections. Critics may have sniffed and grimaced, but the CG/live-action hybrid appears to be a winning genre at the box office, not to mention more economical and quicker to produce than an animation-only movie. Hop opened above CG/live-action mixes G-Force and Beverly Hills Chihuahua, but failed to outperform the holy grail of the medium, Alvin and the Chipmunks. Easter is the last Sunday of April, giving Hop three more weekends to take advantage of its holiday tie-in.

Sci-fi actioner Source Code debuted in second place with $15 million. Similarly sci-fi infused titles The Adjustment Bureau and Limitless both opened at $18 million, so Summit probably had higher hopes for the "Groundhog Day on an exploding train" flick.

Haunted house movie Insidious finished with $13.4 million. With 500 fewer theatres than Source Code, the horror pic actually had a higher per-screen average than the action movie. According to Variety, Insidious cost less than $1 million to produce but had $20 million of marketing behind it. The release is the first for distributor FilmDistrict, which is starting out strong with an unusual budget/marketing ratio.

The PG-13 version of The King's Speech didn't seem to revive the box office. The picture dropped 23% to $1.1 million, the same drop as the previous week. Given the millions The Weinstein Co. spend on new prints and publicity, the re-rated version doesn't seem to be an (instant) success, although the distributor noted that more conservative markets like Salt Lake City, Utah, showed the greatest improvements.

The movers and shakers in the specialty market were Win Win and Jane Eyre. Both films have increased week-over-week since they opened three and four weeks ago, respectively. Jane Eyre went up 27% to $1.2 million, doubling the amount of theatres in its release. Win Win skyrocketed 153% to $1.1 million, increasing the theatres in its release by a factor of six. The Oscar-winning Best Foreign Language Film In a Better World opened to an $8,800 per-screen average. The Danish movie debuted lower than last year's winner, The Secret in Their Eyes.

This Friday 80s comedy remake Arthur will open widest, followed by stoner comedy Your Highness, girl assassin pic Hanna, and Soul Surfer, the tale of a teen surfer who survived a shark attack.

'Wimpy Kid' makes a mighty showing at the box office

By Sarah Sluis

In a bit of an upset, Diary of a Wimpy Kid: Rodrick Rules hurdled into first place this weekend after strong showings on Saturday and Sunday. Male-skewing Sucker Punch started out earning $8 million on Friday to Wimpy Kid's $7.3 million. The matinee family crowds on Saturday and Sunday, however, put Wimpy Kid firmly in first. On Saturday, the kid-oriented sequel earned $10.1 million to the visually packed action film's $6.7 million. Wimpy Kid ended up grossing $24.4 million to Sucker Punch's $19 million.

Adult-oriented fare did particularly well this weekend, essentially without new competition. Limitless dipped just 19.5% in its second week to $15.2 million. The Lincoln Lawyer fell 16.7% to $11 million. Lower down in the top ten, The Adjustment Bureau posted the third-lowest drop, slipping 26.5% to $4.2 million.

The big loser in the top ten was Mars Needs Moms, which plummeted 58% to $2.1 million due to competition from Wimpy Kid.

The Palestinian drama Miral premiered with a $17,000 per-screen average, followed by the more modest $12,000 average of French comedy Potiche. Jumping from 5 to 23 theatres, Win Win soared 213% and posted a $20,000 per-screen average, a strong achievement. Jane Eyre, expanding into 90 theatres from 26, averaged $10,900 per screen.

This Friday will be busy. Four weeks in advance of Easter, the holiday's mascot bunny gets its own live-action/animated venue with Hop. Horror fans can rejoice with Insidious, Source Code will satisfy action fans, and an F-word free version of The King's Speech (rated PG-13) hits theatres.

'Sucker Punch' dukes it out with 'Diary of a Wimpy Kid' sequel

By Sarah Sluis

Leading the pack this weekend is writer/director Zack Snyder's Sucker Punch (3,033 theatres), which could top $20 million. The "visually stylized" film centers on a girl (Emily Browning) thrown into a mental hospital and scheduled for a lobotomy. Accompanied by a bevy of beautiful young women, she enters alternate realities in order to plan her escape. The setup allows for a lot of action sequences, but critic Ethan Alter found them tiring. For such a credibility-straining plotline, the movie "commits the fatal error of taking itself much too seriously." In a critique that brings to mind Snyder's other films (Watchmen, Legend of the Guardians), Alter complains that instead of drama, Snyder "settles for lots of sound and fury masquerading as drama." The eye candy look of the female stars has attracted the greatest interest among males under 25, followed by older males. Last in tracking projections are women, who seem to have honed in on the fact that this isn't really a "girl power" picture.

For pre-teen boys from 7-12 years old, a safe bet will be Diary of a Wimpy Kid: Rodrick Rules (3,167 theatres), the sequel to last year's surprise success. Critic David Noh, however, was unimpressed. He complains that the filmmakers try "too hard" to make the film "family entertainment," with moments that make sitcoms seem subtle. Director David Bowers, who did not direct the first film, gets too "fancy" by "littering the film with elaborate fantasy scenes." Still, this PG-rated outing could earn in the teen millions, especially since its release coincides with some school breaks. There's also not much else at the box office for families--only the critical flop Mars Needs Moms, which will likely exit the top ten this weekend.

Also entering the mix is Miral (4 theatres), a "plodding, earnest historical epic" about the Palestinian plight, as described by critic Jon Frosch. In an unusual casting decision, Indian actress Freida Pinto stars as a Palestinian woman. The lovely Catherine Deneuve plays a trophy wife who escapes her boring existence in the French comedy Potiche (7 theatres). Finally, a dysfunctional family gathers in Peep World (3 theatres). As the movie "degenerate[d] into flailing, repetitive obviousness and mean-spirited pointlessness," Noh pined for "Arrested Development," a superior comedic rendition of the messed-up family.

On Monday, we'll see if Diary of a Wimpy Kid: Rodrick Rules outperforms expectations and beats Sucker Punch.

'Rango' leads quartet of new releases

By Sarah Sluis

Two weeks ago, the so-so reviewed Gnomeo & Juliet opened high, thanks to a dearth of animated films. Now Rango (3,917 theatres) enters the mix, hoping to capture an even larger portion of the family audience. Our critic Frank Lovece praised the Western throwback, which centers on a "chameleon hero [who] uses bravado, exaggeration and improv to survive in a miniature desert frontier town populated by horned toads and hornswogglers, rattlesnakes and rustlers, and some figurative skunks and polecats." Gore Verbinski (Pirates of the Caribbean) directs the tale, resplendent with Western movie homages. Last year, How to Train Your Dragon opened in this timeslot at $43 million, and a similar showing is expected this weekend.

The "kinder, gentler Matrix," according to critic Maitland McDonagh, a.k.a. The Adjustment Bureau (2,840 theatres) should open behind Rango. Matt Damon stars as a politician who meets a woman (Emily Blunt) he wasn't supposed to encounter, throwing mysterious "adjusters" on his tail. Manohla Dargis of the New York Times praised George Nolfi's competent directing, ending with the pronouncement that "romance for grown-ups isn't dead in Hollywood � it's just been on extended leave."

Teens may turn out for an "adequate updating" of Beauty and the Beast, according to critic Doris Toumarkine. Starring Hollywood bad-boy-in-training Alex Pettyfer opposite "High School Musical's" Vanessa Hudgens, Beastly (1,952 theatres) offers a time-honored lesson: beauty is skin-deep. Mary-Kate Olsen also appears as the witch who curses Pettyfer.

'80s throwback comedy Take Me Home Tonight (2,003 theatres) is hit or miss, according to our critic Ethan Alter, who pegged it as a "modest diversion made significantly more appealing by the presence of skilled comic actors like [Topher] Grace, Anna Faris and Chris Pratt." Common sources of comedy? "The era's questionable fashion and hairstyling choices."

On the specialty release front, the "irritatingly self-satisfied film with lonely romantics," happythankyoumoreplease will bow in 2 theatres. The Palme d'Or-winning Uncle Boonmee Who Can Recall His Past Lives (3 theatres) is a "very personal, if quirky, journey" with a Thai man who is approaching the end of his life. Finally, I Saw the Devil, an entry in "torture porn," will "polarize" audiences in 2 theatres.

On Monday, we'll see if the West was won with Rango, and if adult audiences turned out for the mind-bending Adjustment Bureau.

Surprise! Consumers aren't that willing to pay more for 3D

By Sarah Sluis

3D movies have been bringing in a lot of money for studios, enough to stem the tide of decreasing theatre attendance. But perhaps the studios should rethink their strategy, and charge their customers less money for more movie. At least that's what the latest study from PricewaterhouseCoopers says. According to a poll they cite, 77% of people will not pay a surcharge of $4 or more.

I'm not surprised. Though the perks of writing about film means not having to fork over your credit card to see a movie, earlier this year I reviewed the not-so-great 3D Wes Craven movie My Soul to Take at the Regal Union Square in New York, NY, where the ticket price, including the 3D surcharge, added up to $17.50. That kind of moola is worth it for a spectacle like Avatar, but for a run-of-the-mill horror flick, which didn't even do cool things with 3D to make it worth my extra money? Nope.

If so many people are unwilling to pay for 3D, why is 50-70% of box-office revenue coming from 3D screens? Many in the movie business cite the 80-20 rule: 80% of ticket sales come from 20% of the people. Frequent moviegoers are a breed of their own, attending cinemas regularly and often being less discriminating about the content since they're seeing so many movies. Behemoths like Avatar draw in the less-frequent moviegoers, who only go to movies for special occasions. People in both of these groups can justify spending extra to see Toy Story 3 or Alice in Wonderland in 3D. However, it's unlikely that this will hold. There are forty films coming out next year in 3D, and I doubt that all of them will be worth the higher ticket price.

The report hints that 3D surcharges are untenable, but I don't agree. Sure, I'd like to see 3D movies with no surcharge (and if you're choosing between two movies you're interested in equally, wouldn't the 3D one win if it were the same price?), but I would also feel fine with a pared-down surcharge of a dollar or two.

While paying more to see a movie in 3D makes sense for big, must-see pictures, it's unlikely that the forty 3D films coming out next year will live up to their promise. As I check Fandango, tickets for The Green Hornet are going for $13, The Green Hornet 3D is going for $17.50, and The Green Hornet 3D IMAX will run you $19, before popcorn. For a family of four (2 adults, 2 children), that would run $45 for basic, $62 for 3D, and $69 for 3D IMAX, 35% more than seeing the comic book film in 2D. Once the novelty of 3D wears off, will people choose to add 3D glasses to their outing or the popcorn combo deluxe?

'True Grit' overtakes 'Little Fockers'

By Sarah Sluis

True Grit won the box-office horse race, overtaking Meet the Fockers in its third week of release. The two films' race is a lesson in the power of the long tail: True Grit dipped 38% to $15 million, while Little Fockers fell 47% to $13.7 million. Because of Little Focker's higher opening, the comedy's total take is $123 million to the Western's $110 million, but the gap could close if True Grit continues to play strong (and, fingers crossed, receives a boost from Academy Award nominations).

Nicolas Cage's turn in Season of the Witch eked over the eight-figure mark, coming up with $10.7 million. Critics (and audiences) were not kind to the film, which reportedly had a $40 million budget. The supernatural action adventure/kinda comedy/historical film may have been the victim of too much genre mixing, leaving audiences confused about what kind of movie they were signing up for.

Country Strong mustered up $7.3 million in its expansion to 1,424 theatres. Though the number may be small, so was the release, and the country music drama averaged $5,126 per-screen, the third-best average in the top ten. A common complaint: star Gwyneth Paltrow looking way too nice to play an alcoholic music star.

In its second weekend, Blue Valentine went from 4 to 40 theatres and gathered $18,000 per screen. The per-screen average fell by slightly more than half from its debut, but given the rapid expansion this un-romance is in good shape. Within the top ten, specialty films rose even higher. Black Swan fared the best, descending just 6% from last week to earn $8.3 million. With fewer new releases as competition, the ballet-horror-drama rose from ninth to fifth place. The Fighter grabbed seventh place, dipping 30% to ring in $7 million. The King's Speech dropped 12% to $6.8 million. Notably, the movie is still in just 758 theatres and boasts the highest per-screen average in the top ten. Methinks this film will go big once Academy Award nominations are announced.

Mercifully for the future of children's animated movies, Tangled has trounced Yogi Bear. Though Tangled has been in release for three more weeks than Yogi Bear, the family offerings are performing neck-and-neck: Yogi Bear finished with $6.8 million this weekend and Tangled with $5.2. Tangled has $175 million in the bank, while Yogi Bear has around $75 million. This may not prevent the release of next winter's Alvin and the Chipmunks: Chipwrecked, but here's hoping there won't be a sequel to the cartoon adaptation our critic Ethan Alter called a "naked cash-grab."

This Friday, comic book adaptation The Green Hornet will debut alongside cheating spouse comedy The Dilemma.

'Little Fockers' dips in a strong post-Christmas weekend

By Sarah Sluis

Only during the holiday season can seven out of the top ten films post gains over the previous weekend. The top three films all fell from their lofty heights, but the rest of the top ten increased 10-70% from last week. Little Fockers maintained its lead, but fell the furthest, 14%, to $26.3 million. Compared to Meet the Parents and Meet the Fockers, this sequel both opened lower and is falling faster. Could this be the end of the Focker clan?

True Grit dipped just 1% to $24.5 million, narrowing the gap between the western remake and the comedy sequel. The Coen Brothers' latest has already exceeded the total gross of their previous western, No Country for Old Men, and it's fairly certain that True Grit will pass the $100 million mark, a first for the multi-hyphenate team.

The rest of the top ten was populated by family films and awards contenders. The broad, four-quadrant film Tron: Legacy grabbed third place with a 4% fall and another $18.3 million in the bank. Yogi Bear came next with $13 million, a 65% gain from the previous weekend, followed by The Chronicles of Narnia: The Voyage of the Dawn Treader, which went up 10% to $10.5 million. Tangled, which has been out for a month and a half, posted a 55% gain and $10 million, a well-deserved bump for this top-notch animated film. Gulliver's Travels, which opened to just $7 million, got up to $9 million in its second week, but I'd still call it a flop.

Among specialty films, The Fighter filled the most seats ($10 million), followed by the kinda campy Black Swan ($8.4 million) and lively historical tale The King's Speech ($7.6 million).

After an alarmingly small debut last week (an $8,650 per-screen average), Country Strong made a rare second-week rebound, earning $21,500 per screen on its two-screen release. The drama will move into wide release this Friday, so perhaps its weak first-week finish was the result of miscalibrated marketing.

The Ryan Gosling/Michelle Williams un-romance Blue Valentine made an impressive debut with a $45,000 per-screen average. The high average validates the film's position as an awards contender and puts it on the path to successful expansion. Director Mike Leigh's slice-of-life tale Another Year unspooled in six locations, earning an average of $20,000 at each. Somewhere and The Illusionist, both limited releases in their second week, each improved their per-screen averages, to $17,900 and $16,900 per-screen, respectively.

This Friday, Country Strong will be joined by Season of the Witch, Nicolas Cage's second occult-themed wide release after last summer's The Sorcerer's Apprentice.

'Little Fockers,' 'True Grit' lead in lackluster holiday box office

By Sarah Sluis

Moviegoers over the holiday weekend may have turned out for Little Fockers and True Grit, but missing under the Christmas tree was that one big-ticket item: a blockbuster. Without Avatar, box office receipts went down 44% from last year. The year-end box office also showed a lack of originality: seven of the top ten films were adaptations, remakes, or sequels.

Little Fockers, the second sequel to Meet the Parents, grabbed first place with $30.8 million. Including its midweek receipts, the comedy gathered up $45 million in less than a week. Audiences also showed excitement for True Grit, which came in second with $24.8 million and $36 million for the five-day holiday total.

Gulliver's Travels fell short, earning just $6.3 million in two days. The Jack Black riff on the classic novel opened on Christmas Day but failed to draw big audiences. A trio of films rated PG pulled in more audiences, like Tron: Legacy, which finished third with $19.1 million in its second weekend, fourth-place finished The Chronicles of Narnia: The Voyage of the Dawn Treader, which dipped just 11%, and Yogi Bear, which settled into fifth place its second week with $7.8 million.

The holiday weekend also gave specialty movies a chance to shine. The Fighter and Black Swan both finished in the top ten after weeks playing to limited audiences. The Fighter earned $7.6 million in sixth place and Black Swan finished ninth with$6.2 million. The King's Speech rose three spots from last week and landed just outside of the top ten with $4.5 million, though it's still in just 700 theatres.

Focus' Somewhere opened to a $17,000 per-screen average playing on seven screens. The animated feature The Illusionist averaged $12,000 on three screens. Screen Gems' Country Strong had a soft $8,000 per-screen average on two screens. The studio will expand the drama in January but wanted to release it in 2010, perhaps for awards season reasons. According to a new metric on Rotten Tomatoes, the movie has audience approval in the 80% range, compared to just 20% positive among critics, so this movie could bring in crowds with positive word-of-mouth.

This coming week should see higher-than-average weekday receipts as people take time off and students enjoy winter breaks.

Box office overflows with 'Tron: Legacy,' 'How Do You Know,' and 'Yogi Bear'

By Sarah Sluis

We're in the home stretch of the holiday box office season. Three films go into wide release today, and they'll have just five days in the sun before another trio of wide releases (Little Fockers, True Grit, and Gulliver's Travels) bombards holiday audiences.

Disney's been promoting TRON: Legacy (3,451 theatres, including 2,424 in 3D) for years at Comic-Con, and the studio is counting on its long-term marketing efforts to result in a $40 million+ payday over opening weekend. The attempt to "mature" the material from 1982's TRON "[turns] out to be goofier than the original's overeager earnestness," critic Ethan Alter notes. "In trying to make TRON matter to a new generation, Legacy winds up squandering the best thing about the original: its sense of fun." While the story may not be the movie's strong suit, the visuals "lightcycle" races are stunning, and Daft Punk's score sets a dark, techno mood.

The eminently successful James L. Brooks falls short of achieving another masterpiece in How Do You Know (2,483 theatres), which stars Reese Witherspoon, Paul Rudd, Owen Wilson, and Jack Nicholson. His "faltering" hand, according to critic David Noh, results in a "particularly uncertain yet pushy and often tone-deaf romantic comedy." The actors (who reportedly accounted for close to $50 million of the talent budget) earn their keep, but to what end? "It is almost a criminal waste that both Reese Witherspoon and Paul Rudd give two of their most heartfelt, charming performances," Noh sighs.

If the idea of hearing Yogi Bear (Dan Aykroyd) and Boo Boo (Justin Timberlake) singing odes to "pic-a-nic baskets" sounds like punishment, not entertainment, you're not one of the many families expected to turn out this weekend for the spectacle, which will unspool in 3,515 theatres, including 2,011 in 3D. Alter pegs this film as about a 5 out of 10 "on the scale of live-action updates of old cartoons," which is to say it's a "relentlessly uninspired and proudly juvenile production," but "doesn't feature a trio of CGI-rodents singing bad pop songs at a pitch only dogs (and kids under the age of eight) can tolerate."

Rabbit Hole (5 theatres) stars Nicole Kidman and Aaron Eckhart as parents coping with the death of their child. Though the film has drawn raves for Kidman's performance, critic Frank Lovece wasn't one of those applauding. Except for one moment of "layered subtlety," Kidman's "performance [is] so controlled that even when [the couple] Becca and Howie have their inevitable shouting match, it feels forced and false."

Because we're in high season for movies, a number of released films are still gathering steam. The Fighter is making the biggest jump, expanding into 2,503 theatres after opening in just four last week. Black Swan, which already had a spot in the top ten with just 90 theatres, will expand to 959 theatres. The Tempest, which made a so-so debut last week, will stay specialty, spreading to just 21 theatres. For all of these films, success or failure will be determined in the final weeks of 2010.

'The Fighter' has a knockout performance in a big week for little films

By Sarah Sluis

The holiday season usually brings a mix of delightful popcorn fare and heavy-hitting awards films. This week, at least, was a good week for tiny releases and a thoroughly mediocre one for wide releases.

Paramount's The Fighter debuted to $80,000 per screen in four theatres, the highest per-screen average of the week. With a starry cast list that includes Christian Bale, Mark Wahlberg, Amy Adams, and Melissa Leo, this movie could do extremely well as it moves into wide release next week--the blue-collar subject could expand the audience beyond the rarefied world of Oscar films, and Adams should appeal to female audiences less excited about the boxing subject.

Black Swan has also proved itself to be a film with significant commercial potential. With only 90 theatres showing the ballet drama, the movie managed a sixth-place finish thanks to its $37,000 per-screen average. The Natalie Portman starrer has been called a horror film and drawn comparisons to Showgirls, and its arty melodrama has been a winning formula so far.

The King's Speech, which released a week before Black Swan, has been expanding more deliberately. Its per-screen average of $31,000 was close to Swan's, but only 19 theatres (up from 6) screened the historical, lightly comedic tale of King George's attempt to cure his stutter.

The Tempest had a stormy debut, earning $9,000 per screen on five screens. With Disney selling Miramax, this film appears to have been just as disconnected from marketing and publicity efforts as Prospera's island.

Both the wide releases this week underperformed. The bombastic Chronicles of Narnia: The Voyage of the Dawn Treader came in below expectations, with $24.5 million when a $30 million+ figure was expected. The family action film's broad strokes make it more comprehensible to foreign audiences, however, and the film earned three times more abroad than it did at home.

Angelina Jolie and Johnny Depp's beautiful, empty romantic thriller The Tourist racked up $17 million its opening weekend, a number that was also on the low side. International prospects for this film, set in Venice, are also considered to be rosier than its domestic outlook.

This Friday, Disney revives a cult sci-fi film with Tron: Legacy, CG/live-action mix Yogi Bear will entice family audiences, and James L. Brooks' rom-com How Do You Know will make its debut. Oscar-seeking Rabbit Hole will join the list of specialty releases, and The Fighter plans to fast expand its rollout, moving into a 2,000+ theatre release.

'Jackass 3D' and 'Red' lead new releases

By Sarah Sluis

The antics of Steve-O and his masochistic bunch continue in Jackass 3D (3,081 theatres). 80% of the screens will be in 3D, which is expected to boost the film's opening weekend and make it a strong contender for first place. The first Jackass opened to $22 million and the sequel to $29 million, so the film should post a number in the $20 millions.

A "Retired, extremely dangerous" group of CIA agents take the sceen in Red (3,255 theatres). Helen Mirren, Bruce Willis, Morgan Freeman, John Malkovich and Mary-Louise Parker head up the cast. The action comedy centers on a retired CIA agent (Willis) who escapes an assassination attempt and tries to track down his killers. Adult males should comprise the majority of the audience. The success of this summer's The Expendables, which also featured adult "classic" action stars, has raised hopes for the movie's box-office potential. Critic Dana Stevens at Slate, however, was not impressed, sighing that Red "keeps up a steady, frantic barrage of bullets, blood, and wisecracks, but never manages to convince us that anyone involved�characters, actors, filmmakers or audience�is having any fun."

Two big studio films begin their platform releases today. Fox Searchlight's Conviction (11 theatres) stars Hilary Swank as Betty Anne Waters, a woman who went to law school in a successful attempt to free her brother, imprisioned for murder. Critic Kevin Lally enjoyed the movie but found it flawed: Conviction is "less remarkable than the story behind it, but it benefits from Tony Goldwyn's low-key direction and a very solid supporting cast."

Matt Damon re-teams with director Clint Eastwood in Hereafter (6 theatres), which centers on three characters' interest and connection to the afterlife. Damon stars as a psychic uncomfortable with his powers, Cecile de France portrays a woman who had a near-death experience in the Thailand tsunami, and a set of twins (Frankie/George McLaren) play a young English boy who lost his twin brother. Like many ensemble pieces, all three characters eventually meet. Critic Daniel Eagan had some quibbles with the film's script and sketchy depiction of the afterlife, among other things, but predicted that "audience reaction will be muted, but fans will still appreciate Eastwood's talent." Both Hereafter and Conviction have been mentioned as Oscar contenders at some point, but each film is currently tracking at 61% on Rotten Tomatoes, and based on critical reactions it seems safe to say they will each pick up, at most, a couple of ancillary nominations.

The anti-Obamacare, conservative documentary I Want Your Money will debut in 537 theatres, with Freestyle Releasing focusing on smaller markets, the Midwest, and the South. Most wide-releasing documentaries in the past few years (Michael Moore's projects, An Inconvenient Truth, etc.) have espoused liberal viewpoints, so it will be interesting to see if conservative audiences turn out as well, especially given the heated activity going on in the conservative realm, such as the Tea Party movement.

Releasing under the radar, N-Secure will bow in 483 theatres, primarily those that do well with Tyler Perry and other black-centered films. The suspense-melodrama centers on the romance and business dealings of a group of affluent black professionals.

Samson & Delilah, the tale of two young Aboriginal outcasts who find solace in each other, opens in New York City. The British black comedy Down Terrace will hit two theatres.

On Monday, I'll circle back to analyze the performance of Jackass 3D, Red, and see how Conviction and Hereafter set the stage for their expanding releases.

'Most Popular' award goes to 'Social Network'

By Sarah Sluis

Combining a near-perfect review record with a $23 million opening weekend, The Social Network is well on its way to becoming a front-runner at the Oscars this year--though it's still a little early in the race. The

lead-up to the opening included intense speculation on the story's realism. In what was considered a PR counter-strategy to the more negative portrayal of Mark Zuckerberg, the Facebook founder appeared on "Oprah" and donated $100 million to New Jersey schools. This movie truly has four-quadrant appeal. Males and females provided equal support, and under-25 and over-25 audiences turned out almost equally. The latter group should prop up returns in coming weekends, as older viewers make their way to theatres.

Case 39 and Let Me In both disappointed, coming in seventh ($5.35 million) and eighth ($5 million) place, respectively. The first, starring Renee

Zellweger, had been shelved since 2006, a datedness that did no favors to the already well-trod child-demon genre. Let Me In, a remake of the Swedish film Let the Right One In, may have been too original for its own good. Horror audiences may have been turned off by its lack of big scares and focus on characterization, while drama-seeking audiences may have been alienated by the vampire/horror link.

The rest of the top ten dropped in just the 30-40% range. Including weekday grosses, many of the films have been adding an amount equivalent to their opening weekend every week of their release. In second place, Legend of the Guardians: The Owls of Ga'Hoole earned $10.8 million for a total of $30 million, nearly double its $16 million opening weekend. Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps and The Town each added around $10 million to their totals. Easy A, which had a $17 million opening weekend three weeks ago, has since risen to a cumulative gross of $42 million. While the fall movie season has brought lower opening weekends, these films have been able to sustain their earnings longer, since the competition isn't as tough as in the summer.

Moving to specialty releases, Catfish amassed the most dough, accruing $607,000 and improving 34% over last week as it more than doubled the amount of theatres in its release. In its second week, Waiting for "Superman" shot up 192%, moving from 4 to 34 theatres while still keeping its per-theatre average above $10,000. Woody Allen's You Will Meet a Tall Dark Stranger went up 44% as it expanded from 6 to 29 theatres, averaging $8,000 per screen. Never Let Me Go shows signs that it isn't catching on. In its third week, it dipped 23% even as it added 17 theatres for a total of 43 screens. Freakonomics' debut failed to ignite. The documentary, which is based on a bestselling book, earned just $1,900 per screen at 17 theatres. The movie had been in release on iTunes and on-demand for a month, so perhaps the most interested audiences already sought out and watched the film.

On Friday, Disney's feel-good horse racing film, Secretariat, will leave the gate along with romantic comedy Life as We Know It and teen horror flick My Soul to Take.

Green weekend for 'Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps'

By Sarah Sluis

Almost a quarter-century after the 1987 original, Oliver Stone and his creation Gordon Gekko returned for Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps. Finishing up the weekend with $19 million, the financial drama saw a

nice appreciation from its $4 million debut way back in the 80's. Audiences over thirty came out in force, since they were most likely to be familiar with the initial film.

Debuting in second place, Legend of the Guardians: The Owls of Ga'Hoole racked up $16.3 million, including $1.7 million from IMAX screens. Director Zack Snyder's switch from R-rated movies like Watchmen and 300 to a PG, animated movie was deemed too violent by many

critics, but that didn't stop the owl adventure from finishing within expectations.

You Again opened in fifth place with $8.3 million. The addition of stars such as Sigourney Weaver, Jamie Lee Curtis and Betty White succeeded in drawing in an older audience. Though younger audiences in the Kristen Bell age range did turn out, they represented just 25% of

the total. A sub-$10 million opening isn't that great, but Disney should be able to rouse up some good post-theatrical returns. The chick flick's older audience also suggests it will play well in coming weeks.

The 700-screen release of The Virginity Hit did not go well for Sony, which hoped to use a limited release to launch a larger one in coming weeks. With just a $429 per-screen average, the teen sex comedy finished with $300,000.

Director Davis Guggenheim's documentary about America's failing public schools, Waiting for "Superman," had an A+ debut. It's $35,250 per-screen average was the highest of the year. The movie will expand into ten markets next week and Paramount plans to tie in the film's marketing to the midterm elections in November.

Woody Allen's latest, You Will Meet a Tall Dark Stranger, did exceptionally well its opening weekend, with a $27,000 per-screen average on six screens. His last film, Whatever Works, however, opened slightly better and finished with $5 million, so the outsize opening will likely be followed up by a more modest, but successful, run.

Enter the Void had the third-highest per-screen average, $14,000, along with some good buzz, which should help the psychedelic, experimental movie out in coming weeks. Ryan Reynolds' turn in Buried piled up $9,500 per screen at eleven locations, and James Franco's performance in Howl accrued $9,000 per screen at six locations. Among returning specialty releases, Never Let Me Go went from 4 to 26 locations and increased 119% from last week. Catfish upped its take 82%, expanding from 12 to 57 theatres.

This Friday, the much-hyped The Social Network will enter theatres along with horror remake Let Me In and the thriller Case 39, starring Renee Zellweger.

'Sex and the City 2' poised for blockbuster weekend

By Sarah Sluis

Midnight screenings of Sex and the City 2 grossed $3 million on Thursday, 20% more than the first

installment. This puts the femme-driven movie in position to earn at least $60 million this weekend. The first SATC earned $62.6 million over the four-day weekend, so the sequel should do just as well--if not better--in its 3,445 theatres. The sex 'n fashion comedy is unlikely to win any awards among critics, but it's sure to please the hordes of fans arriving to the theatres in stilettos. Who knows, maybe there will be a Sex and the City 3 in our future.

Going up against the girls' trek to Abu Dhabi, the competing release this week also features a Middle Eastern setting. Based on a popular video game, Prince of Persia: The Sands of Time (3,646

theatres) will play in a couple hundred more theatres but is unlikely to match SATC2's performance. In its favor, the PG-13 film is fairly tame and should attract family audiences. But it's unlikely to expand beyond its fan base, unless it attracts positive word-of-mouth. According to critic Daniel Eagan "this effects-laden spectacle delivers just what it promises and no more," and is "well-crafted but not especially original."

Those delighted by Amelie and Delicatessen will be thrilled to catch Micmacs (5 theatres in NYC), the latest from director Jean-Pierre Jeunet. "A love

story that blossoms in an underground junkyard inhabited by eccentric, slightly roguish characters with kind hearts and pure souls," according to critic Rex Roberts, the movie also includes a few scenes in the Middle Eastern desert (a trend of the week). With a liberal political message (anti-guns) along with deft use of YouTube, this movie will be a winner for Jeunet fans and other adventurous moviegoers.

Rounding out the mix, George A. Romero's Survival of the Dead will open in 21 theatres. The movie centers on a minor character from Diary of the Dead, rewarding loyal fans. Critic Maitland McDonagh called the movie a "shaggy dog tale," but noted that "if anyone has earned the right to trifle with the cannibal dead, it's the guy who unleashed them on us in the first place."

On Tuesday, Screener will circle back to count the spoils of the four-day weekend.

'Avatar' continues its reign with the highest-grossing third weekend ever

By Sarah Sluis

Three weeks into Avatar's run, the movie has kept its altitude when most other movies would have dropped off by tens of millions by now. Cue box-office records falling. This weekend it grossed $68.3 million, and broke the records for top gross on New Year's Day, as well as the highest-grossing third weekend ever. It's now the #4 top-grossing movie worldwide, below Titanic, The Lord of the Rings: Return of the King and Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest. While James Cameron's Titanic ended up with $1.8 billion worldwide and won't be unseated anytime soon, his Avatar only has to earn another $100 million before it assumes the #2 spot worldwide: give it a week or so.

Will it be possible for Avatar to submerge Titanic? At this point, it's outpacing Titanic's first three weeks, but then again, so were the movies in the #2 and #3 spots for worldwide gross. All the buzz and projections have the movie placing behind Titanic when the dust settles, but the sci-fi spectacle could end up getting closer than predicted. It's also worth noting that although the movie has placed #4 worldwide, it's still #15 domestically, where stalwarts like Star Wars and E.T., released before foreign box office had as big of a share, remain.

The only new release of the week, Sony Picture Classics' awards contender The White Ribbon, grossed $20,000 per location in a three-theatre release. Another one of the distributor's releases, The Imaginarium of Dr. Parnassus, came away with the highest per-screen average of the weekend, $32,000.

Most of the returnees in the top ten posted minimal drops or modest gains. The worst-off was Sherlock Holmes, which fell 38% to $38 million. The biggest gain came from The Princess and the Frog, which added 11% to its total to finish with $10 million, followed closely by a 10.3% gain from The Blind Side, which finished two spots higher than Frog with $12.6 million.

Awards favorite Up in the Air also generated a healthy number of ticket sales, going up .7% from last week to make $11.3 million in ticket sales.

This Friday a romance, comedy, and vampire movie will debut in theatres, but don't expect any of them to grab the top spot from Avatar.