'Argo' should stay ahead of four new wide releases

Four new wide releases are hitting theatres this weekend, but none are expected to surpass the $4-12 million range. That means that Argo has a good chance of spending a second week at number one. Last week, the '70s suspenser based on the Iranian hostage crisis dipped just 15%, a record hold for a wide action release. A similar hold would put the movie around $13 million, slightly ahead of projections for the four new wide releases.

Cloud Atlas (2,008 theatres) has been billing itself as a cineaste's film, a must-see for those who admire the work of the directors, the Wachowski siblings and Tom Tykwer (Run Lola Run).
The "incredibly ambitious undertaking," as described by critic Maitland McDonagh, may have trouble recruiting mainstream audiences, with
its six separate storylines interweaving over 172 minutes.. But the "consistently entertaining
and surprisingly effective" movie is "the shortest three hours
most moviegoers will ever spend in a theatre…and that's no small
recommendation," McDonagh assesses, though she notes that in tying together so many disparate storylines, the filmmakers must go for the lowest common denominator, "greeting-card platitudes rather than genuinely provocative
notions," along the lines of "we are all connected" and "no man is an island." The hard sell of a movie may end up with less than $10 million.

Looking for a throwback to the teen comedies of my youth, I checked out Fun Size (3,014 theatres). The rather obvious movie is also genuinely funny, with some slapstick moments and goofy cariactures (eccentric hippie lesbian parents) that connect. There are also plenty of slo-mo
moments of the hunky teen boy driving his car away while the crushed look on. It is a teen comedy, after all. The Nickelodeon-produced movie, which is full of TV stars young (Victoria Justice of "iCarly") and old (Chelsea Handler of "Chelsea Lately"), is also directed by "The OC"'s Josh Schwartz. The teen comedy is also projected to hit around the $10 million mark.

Silent Hill: Revelation 3D (2,933 theatres) should top $10 million, in part because horror-tinged releases tend to perform best their first weekend. Early Rotten Tomatoes reviews
have 20% of critics liking the horror sequel and 86% of audiences
voting it "fresh." However, the popularity of the video game franchise
the series is based on has waned in recent years, which could spell
trouble for the movie's performance at the box office.

Fans of the great surf movies like Riding Giants and The Endless Summer will be in store for more great surfing shots in Chasing Mavericks (2,002 theatres), a fictional film based on the story of a real surfer who tackled Mavericks, those formidable waves off the coast of California. The "true stars of the film are the waves themselves, awesome liquid mountains that rear up magnificently
and resoundingly crash, thrillingly recorded by the sensational cinematography of Oliver Euclid and Bill Pope," critic David Noh notes. But that's all they'll get, thanks to the "unmitigated corn of a hopelessly mawkish screenplay." The question is whether one would be better off watching YouTube surf videos instead of sitting through a bad story.

Also opening this week is the well-reviewed The Loneliest Planet (2 theatres), "a nuanced story about a couple’s wilderness hiking trip through the Caucasus Mountains" shot with "accomplished simplicity," according to our critic Maria Garcia. The remake of Nicholas Winding Refn's Pusher (15 theatres) also opens. According to THR's Deborah Young, the crime movie "struggles to rise above standard drug
dealer/gangster fare and succeeds, but only in part," a lukewarm endorsement.

On Monday, we'll see where the four new wide releases settled in the top ten, and if Argo was able to keep its spot at number one.

DOCNYC Fest: Stories of false confessions in 'Central Park Five'

If there's anything the DOC NYC Festival drives home, it's how easy--and utterly damning--it can be to make a false confession. This year's selection, Central Park Five, talks about the famous Central Park Jogger case. In 1989, five black and Latino teens, all of whom confessed in some manner, were implicated in the rape and near-murder of a white investment banker. Thirteen years
later, the real rapist, who was imprisoned with one of the convicted, confessed after seeing how much the innocent man was suffering. Last year at the DOC NYC Fest, the documentary Scenes of a Crime followed a similar case. A black man was interrogated for ten hours before confessing that he shook his own baby to death. In reality, the baby probably died of sepsis--while he was being held by the police. As of two days ago, the Adrian Thomas case has hope. The documentary's website reports that New York's Court of Appeals will hear the case, which is extremely rare. "The Court’s eventual decision may affect more than Adrian Thomas: it could make precedent on police interrogation tactics, voluntariness of confessions and the use of courtroom experts on questions of false confession," they note. Years after the Central Park Five case, innocent people are still succumbing to police pressure and making false confessions, something that may change if the Thomas case wins its appeal.

Central Park Five, which was directed by Ken Burns, Sarah Burns, and David McMahon, does not have the usual Ken Burns style--no pans or zooms on still images. However, it does have the patience characteristic of his movies. After opening with the confession of the real rapist, to leave no doubt in the viewers' minds, the directors spend several minutes laying out the atmosphere in New York City at the time: High crime, pockets of extremely impoverished areas, and a decaying, trash-ridden city. The case was a "proxy" for everything else going on in the city. The fact that black teens were being implicated for the rape of a white woman vaulted the case into the headlines, when other brutal rapes without perpetrators of different races were relegated to the back pages.

The Central Park Five were interrogated all night. The men explain they confessed because they were tired, scared, and they were told they could go home if only they could admit they were present at the woman's rape--with the implication being that they were just there, but they didn't do anything. Although parents were often absent at the initial confessions, they were present for their videotaped confessions. How could that be?  Many teens were arrested that night, since over two dozen went "wilding," participating in mischief that included throwing rocks and beating up joggers and homeless people. I wish the filmmakers had interviewed the other teens the police interviewed who were not persuaded to make a false confession. How were they able to see through the police's tactics? Perhaps including those stories would have made the viewers more likely to blame the teens for a mistake that cost them years of their lives, but it would have also illuminated the social psychology aspect of false confessions. Central Park Five is a stomach-knotting look at how false confessions and social prejudices locked up five innocent boys. I hope this movie can be used as instruction for those who are least likely to know their rights when arrested. For the adult fans of Ken Burns docs and indies who are most likely to see this doc, the story may serve as a different warning: that of caution and contemplation in the face of sordid headlines that confirm prejudices.

After the DOC NYC Fest, Central Park Five will open in New York City on November 23.

DOC NYC Fest: 'Venus and Serena'

Venus and Serena Williams have far more personality than most female tennis players on the pro tour. When they win, they're extemely demonstrative. Serena has famously yelled at line judges, and they showcase their latest fashions on the court. Venus & Serena, a selection at this year's DOCNYC Fest, which will run from Nov. 8-15, shows the sisters off the court. Even though the sisters and their family
give directors Maiken Baird and Michelle Major access, they're still private people. "When the food gets here, make like a banana and split," a sister tells the person behind the camera after Serena's 2011 loss at Wimbledon. The person doesn't understand, so she slowly repeats the phrase, ending with a direct statement: "Leave." Most of the time when the cameras are present, so is the sister's entourage. A hitting partner, various people who appear to be assistants-slash-masseuses, various family members. And, of course, wherever there is one sister, the other is always nearby. It's humanizing to hear the sisters, who live together, joke that the other is their "wife" and debate how they want to cook their fish.

With careers now lasting over a decade, it's hard to know where to start or end with the sisters' stories. The doc avoids recapping too much of their early careers, but it does talk about key events. Like the time Serena was booed at the Indian Wells tournament, where racial epithets were hurled at her and her family, and where she has never returned. Or the upbringing of their father, Richard Williams, who grew up with casual, cruel racism and violence in Shreveport, Louisiana. Cameras followed the sisters during 2011, and that time period is what we mostly see. At the beginning of the year, Serena is recovering from a pulmonary embolism brought on by a blood clot she acquired from having her leg in a cast: an injury on top of injury on top of injury. Venus has a diagnosis that's not life-threatening, but could be career-ending. She has the autoimmune disorder Sjogren's Syndrome, which causes terrible fatigue.

Of all the intimate moments with the sisters, two are the most telling. While in the gym with her trainer, Venus diligently struggles through movements, mentioning, "I can't wait to get stronger." The comment was in marked contrast to most reality show scenes in the gym, which center on complaining, whining, or a preoccupation with weight loss. That kind of dedication is why Venus is so inspiring. The other comes from interview footage with Venus when she's only around eleven. An interviewer asks her if she will be a champion, and she replies in the affirmative. He pauses, and asks a couple of follow-up statements intended to make Venus qualify. "Really? Do you have any doubts?" At this point, her father steps in, the camera pulls back to reveal the lights and setting, and he reams the interviewer for trying to place questions into the mind of his budding champion. Venus smiles with the slightly puffed-up cheeks that occur when you are trying to hold in a laugh. She's clearly pleased to have her dad step in. Yes, he may be known as eccentric and controlling, but it's also clear that his protectiveness and complete faith in her is what made Venus and her sister Serena champions.

Hugh Grant signs on play the cad in a romantic comedy

Hugh Grant's most entertaining work, in my opinion, is when he plays the cad. Perhaps the best showcase of his work as a cad was in About a Boy--because he reforms in a rather heartwarming way. Grant appears to be going for a similar role in an untitled romantic comedy. He will play a
washed-up screenwriter whose success--including an Oscar win--over a decade ago has since faded away. He takes a job as a professor in at a small college on the East Coast, hoping he'll be put in touch with cute college girls. Then he falls for a single mom.

Marc Lawrence, who has directed Grant in Two Weeks Notice, Music and Lyrics and Did You Hear About the Morgans?, will direct the project, which Castle Rock is producing. Lawrence and Grant's collaborations haven't really been Grant's best work, with mixed critical reactions and waning box-office success. Two Weeks Notice, which co-starred Sandra Bullock, earned $93 million in 2002: a hit. The latter two collaborations did worse: Music and Lyrics earned half as much, $43 million, and Did You Hear About the Morgans? did worse, totaling just $29 million. Of course, cute About a Boy, my favorite, only ended up with $41 million, far below Grant's biggest success, Notting Hill, though Julia Roberts gets a lot of the credit for making that romantic comedy a success.

Another reason I'm behind this romantic comedy, at least in theory, is because it has a logical obstacle to romance. It seems like recently, romantic comedies have finally moved away from using  contrived circumstances or petty differences as obstacles as romance.  Dating someone with kids is a dealbreaker for some people, and I like the idea of Grant's character trying to wrap his head around dating someone so far away from his ideal. With filming starting this April, it won't be long before audiences find out if this one is a dud or up there with Grant's hits. In the meantime, Grant appears as a number of characters--including a face-painted cannibal--in Cloud Atlas, which comes out this Friday.

'Paranormal Activity 4' loses steam in fourth outing

This fall has been filled with weekends unexpectedly good (the $50 million opening of Taken 2) and bad (the week The Possession opened was off 38% from the previous year). Underperforming openings meant the box office this year was just slightly up from last year. Paranormal Activity 4 placed first this weekend with $30.2 million. For a horror movie budgeted at just $5
million, that's great, but Paranormal 2 debuted to $ 40.7 million and Paranormal 3 to $50.2 million, making this the first sequel to open lower, not higher. Just because the opening of Paranormal Activity 4 was 40% off the opening of the third film isn't necessarily a bad thing. The Saw franchise has had seven movies to date, and it peaked at the second film. Movies three through seven trended downward. In its favor, Paranormal Activity 4 still has one more pre-Halloween weekend to take advantage of. There will be more competition, in the form of Open Road's Silent Hill: Revelation 3D, but that horror sequel doesn't have nearly as much awareness or marketing support.

Tyler Perry may want to hang up his FBI badge, because Alex Cross opened to just $11.5 million, the star's worst opening ever. It's also under the previous two James Patterson adaptations starring Morgan Freeman that released over a decade ago. Perry fans did show up, as evidenced by the
demographic breakdown: 74% black, 60% women, and 68% over the age of 35. However, Patterson's fans, which tend to be older and skew white, did not turn out, a big miss. People who did show up gave the movie an "A" rating, so perhaps the problems was with the movie's marketing, not the movie itself.

Fox Searchlight's Sundance Film Festival pickup, The Sessions, opened to $30,000 per screen in four locations. The story of a man paralyzed with polio who resolves to lose his virginity has been met with a generally positive critical reception. It's the kind of film that builds momentum with positive word-of-mouth,

so its performance in coming weeks will be telling.

While none of the new wide releases opened as big as expected, it was a great week for holdovers. Argo dipped just 15% to earn another $16.6 million. That's the best hold for a wide release action movie outside of the holiday season ever. While the opening of Argo was below star/director Ben Affleck's previous outing, The Town, Argo has now regained the lead and is tracking ahead of the bank robbery movie.

In third place, Hotel Transylvania held on strong with just a 21% dip to $13.5 million. Taken 2 was right behind, falling 38% for another $13.4 million. That was enough to bring the Liam Neeson-led movie over the $100 million mark. After a soft opening, Here Comes the Boom showed strength by losing just 28% of its audience for another $8.5 million. Finally, Pitch Perfect went down just 24% to earn another $7 million. The under-the-rader comedy never rose above third place, but it could be in the top ten for another week or two thanks to its strong holds week after week.

This Friday, the Halloween-themed comedy Fun Size will open, along with surfing movie Chasing Mavericks, the ambitious literary adaptation of Cloud Atlas, and horror pick Silent Hill: Revelation 3D.

'Paranormal Activity 4' prepares to scare away the competition

The found-footage style showcased in Paranormal Activity 4 (3,412 theatres) is far from played out. In fact, the style is popping up in other horror movies, action movies (Chronicle), and epidemic movies (The Bay), to name a few examples. But when it comes to the Paranormal franchise itself, THR's Justin Lowe feels the filmmakers "seem short
on new ideas, relying more on the series’
reputation for
low-budget thrills to attract audiences." Still, "it’s unlikely
that anything will stop the first few waves of fans" from turning out through Halloween. Paramount predicts the release will end up in the high $30 million range. That would be a bit down from the third outing's $52 million opening, and more in line with Paranormal Activity 2's $40 million opening. The studio has been smart about keeping production costs low. With a reported budget of $5 million, the release will be pure gravy for the distributor.

Tyler Perry has his first starring role in a movie he did not direct in Alex Cross (2,539 theatres). He plays the eponymous character, an FBI profiler. Morgan Freeman last played Cross in Kiss the Girls and Along Came a Spider. The crime-suspenser has the potential to attract both Perry's fans
and readers of the source material, James Patterson's novels. However, Perry's fans are most loyal to his Madea character, so that may dampen the grosses a bit. It doesn't help that FJI critic Daniel Eagan didn't feel Perry was "a comfortable fit" for the role, describing him as a "lumbering screen presence who
is better at projecting teary-eyed sincerity than brutal, vengeful
anger." Plus, the "slapdash plotting, nonsensical
action and inept pacing" could make viewing the feature more of a trial than a mindless pleasure. A number in the teen millions would be a good showing for Alex Cross.

This week's specialty pick is The Sessions (4 theatres). Charming, sweet, and gentle, the based-
on-a-true-story movie follows a man (John Hawkes) who was paralyzed by polio and lives part of the day in an iron long. After receiving the blessing of his priest (William H. Macy), he goes on a quest to lose his virginity with the help of a sexual surrogate (Helen Hunt). The film festival darling also pleased critic David Noh, who praises the movie for "possessing vast amounts of humor and humanity."

On Monday, we'll see if audiences still want to be scared by Paranormal Activity 4 and if enough viewers turned out for Alex Cross. The Sessions, an awards hopeful, may receive a nice dose of buzz if it has a strong debut.

Hidden gems populate Gotham Independent Film Award nominations

Oscar nominations won't be announced until January 5th. The Gotham Independent Film Award nominations, which come far before the Oscars, Globes, or the multitude of critic association awards, stand apart not only on the calendar, but in content. If you look at IndieWire's current list of potential Oscar nominees, for example, there's almost no crossover with the Gotham Awards. In the list of nominations below, I provide links to Film Journal reviews, and give a few recommendations of my own.

Best Feature
Bernie: This arthouse feature has earned $9 million to date, with steady returns week after week. It's also nominated for "Best Ensemble Performance," with the unlikely trio of  Jack Black, Shirley
MacLaine, and Matthew McConaughey sharing the screen.
The Loneliest Planet: This one hasn't released yet, but it's about an engaged couple (one half of which is the handsome Gael Garcia Bernal) who go on a hike, and bad things happen. If the Gotham people like it, it must be good.
The Master: This is the only one of Gotham's nominations that's also polling high in the Oscar race. Though our critic Chris Barsanti felt it lacked some of director Paul Thomas Anderson's "characteristically thunderous panache," this Scientology-esque biopic is high-profile enough everyone should see it in order to weigh in.
Middle of Nowhere: The story of a woman "who cares for her imprisoned husband while struggling to keep her true self afloat," as described by critic Tomris Laffly, "reinstates one’s at times
diminishing faith in independent film," refusing to give out "louder
statements about social injustice" but instead letting the audience draw its own conclusions. Participant Media helped finance, and they only back "socially conscious" films.
Moonrise Kingdom: One of director Wes Anderson's most successful films in recent years, the charming story of young love is a natural fit for the director's reflexive, nostalgic style. Some think this one can slide into the Oscar race, with at least some chance of picking up nominations. Another nominee for "Best Ensemble Performance," this movie will likely do even better in critics' awards and the Spirit Awards.

Best Documentary
I've seen a number of docs this year, but none of these are among them. Here's a roundup of these films, and hopes that they'll be in a theatre near you or on Netflix soon.
Detropia: "A tone poem soaked in the
blues," as described by Barsanti, about Detroit's continuing decline from its manufacturing glory days, is a haunting look at what forty plus years of recession
looks like.
How to Survive a Plague: A victorious look over how AIDS has gone from a death sentence to a treatable disease.
Marina Abramović: The Artist is Present:  A countdown to the performance artist's solo show at New York's Museum of Modern Art.
Room 237: Reviewed here as part of a NYFF recap, Room 237 interviews "a handful of die-hard [Stanley] Kubrick fans and scholars
who make largely preposterous, hilarious and only sometimes sober
arguments for symbols that permeate his work." Anyone who's speculated about the blood coming out of the elevator doors might find this movie a worthy follow-up to Kubrick's masterpiece.
The Waiting Room: A fly-on-the-wall look at an ER waiting room.

Among the other nominations, there are two for Beasts of the Southern Wild, "Breakthrough Director" for Benh Zeitlin and "Breakthrough Actor" for Quvenzhané Wallis. I recommend it as one of this summer's best and most successful indies. The "This American Life" crowd may take a shine to Sleepwalk with Me. Star/writer/director Mike Birbiglia was nominated for his performance in the "Breakthrough Actor" category. Everyone I know who has seen it found it sweet and recommended it to others. Awards frontrunner The Silver Linings Playbook grabbed one nomination for "Best Ensemble Performance," which is probably only a small precursor of what's to come. The Gotham Independent Film Awards are on November 26th, right in the midst of the awards releases onslaught.