By Katey Rich
In terms of sheer box-office numbers, a good release date is no longer a promise of anything. Prestige dramas opening in the foolproof fall movie season (like Lions for Lambs) might sink like a stone, while an action movie relegated to the doldrums of early spring may catch fire (like 300). In the last few years President's Day weekend has become a box-office bonanza, shepherding movies like Jumper and Ghost Rider to major grosses over the five-day period.
But in terms of Oscar potential, especially when it comes to big-budget movies, release dates are everything. And that doesn't bode well for Bryan Singer's Valkyrie, which has been pushed around the calendar several times and has finally landed on President's Day 2009. This is a big shift from the planned summer tentpole release, and an even bigger change from the onetime October release. Essentially what MGM is saying is, "This movie does not stand a chance in either the summer or the prestige movie season, so we're putting it in the sandbox that is President's Day weekend."
Granted, this doesn't mean the movie is no good-- it just means it's neither big enough for Oscar nor to distract attention from Hancock or The Dark Knight. That's not necessarily a bad thing. But given the high hopes some had for it, and the potential it had to turn Tom Cruise's career around, it's not the best he could have hoped for.
MGM has the Michael Cera starrer Youth in Revolt coming out in Oscar primetime, December, but other than that, the roster is pretty thin. Anne Thompson says Mary Parent, the new head of MGM, knows what she's doing with this Valkyrie shift, and won't bother marketing a movie that is unmarketable. We'll see. If Valkyrie becomes MGM's second Cruise flop in a row, it'll be a tough road for even the most skilled studio head.
Something rotten in Denmark . . . or perhaps in Hollywood seemed to be in the air. I really cannot see any reason for MGM to delay the release of "Valkyrie". I've seen the trailers. It could have easily been released in the late summer. I get the feeling that this is another attempt to sink Tom Cruise's career even more, due to his religious beliefs.
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