By Sarah Sluis
So America has voted, electing Barack Obama as its next president. What kind of changes can Hollywood expect?
The Risky Business blog looked at the past seven elections and noted that two out of two times a Democrat 
was elected, the box office rose, whereas the box office rose three out of five times a Republican was elected, and to a lesser degree. The evidence looks a little shaky, but the optimism is real: "Dem administrations historically tend to be more favorable to creative expression, which creates a more robust filmmaking and moviegoing climate." However, let's not forget that a Republican administration let W. be released without a peep, and was a good sport about the Tina Fey/Sarah Palin impressions.
Along with the election, the recession also bodes well for Hollywood. Martin Grove uses his column to address those who see a single bad weekend as part of a trend. He notes that fluctuations from week to week and year over year do not signal a downwardly spiralling box office but changes in the quality of films. A bad week at the box office could simply indicate a lack of films worth seeing. It makes sense that the weekend with High School Musical 3 would outperform the same weekend from the year before , whose top draw was Saw IV. Grove feels that audiences will go out and see a movie as long as there is one to see--preferably with an escapist plot (Hello, Beverly Hills Chihuahua).
One item I haven't seem much journalism or speculation about is substitution: in the face of a lingering recession, will families that normally frequent the cinema opt to rent, and will renters cancel their Netflix subscriptions, or take a recent guest on Oprah's advice and rent DVDs from the library? People still want to be entertained, so I am curious to see if a drop in the box office will lead to a growth in less expensive forms of movie-watching. So far, the box office is down .3% from last year, although the Holiday season will change that number. Conversely, aren't movies inexpensive forms of entertainment themselves, compared to seeing a play or taking the family on other types of excursions?
I am certainly excited about what an Obama presidency will bring to our beleaguered nation. He is very articulate to be sure, and seemingly has the intellect and composure to be successful in the highest office of the most powerful nation on earth. However, I am a little skeptical about his level of experience, alleged ties to unsavory organizations and religious affiliations. I voted for him, primarily because of bitterness at the incompetence of the Bush administration. I remain disenfranchised with America so far in the 21st Century, and came across a political graphic that does a fairly good job in capturing this sentiment.
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