Friday, June 14, 2013

Will 'Man of Steel' have a superhero debut over $100 million?

Warner Bros. has estimated that Man of Steel (4,207 theatres) will earn around $80 million this weekend, but that conservative figure could easily be exceeded to come in line with many forecasters' predictions of a $100 million opening. That would put the superhero movie well behind the $174 million opening of Iron Man 3, but slightly ahead of the $96 million earned by
Man of steel henry cavillFast & Furious 6
. The film itself is tracking 58% positive, consistent with the mixed appraisal by our critic Chris Barsanti, who applauds the performance of Henry Cavill as Superman but faults director Zack Snyder for "[burying] him inside a drearily violent, flashback-riddled story." In comparison, Iron Man 3 earned approvals from 78% of critics, and Fast & Furious 6 had a "fresh" rating from 71% of critics. However, those two movies are established franchises, while Man of Steel relaunches one--could curiosity boost opening weekend?


A comedy filled with stars playing versions of themselves, This Is The End (3,055 theatres) is a "masterful comedy filmmaking, all the more impressive for its
loose-limbed apparent casualness," our Frank Lovece notes approvingly. Seth Rogen, Jay Baruchel, and James Franco
This is the end seth rogen emma watsonstar as versions of themselves who (humorously) struggle to survive an apocalypse. Rogen also co-directed and co-wrote the comedy with filmmaking partner Evan Goldberg. This Is The End opened to $7.8 million on Wednesday, and could end up in the mid-$30 million range by the weekend, which would put it in the same company as another well-regarded Rogen comedy, Pineapple Express. Good reviews for this feature will keep it running in coming weeks.


The real-life story about a group of teens who robbed celebrities for their designer bags and heels gets the Sofia Coppola treatment in The Bling Ring (5 theatres). Sure, the multiple robberies carried out by the clan are "repetitive," as explained by our critic David Noh, but I also found them
Bling ring girlsto be hypnotic. Once caught, the well-clad teens describe their foibles as "learning experiences," one reason Noh was astonished by how "little comprehension the perps show
that they've, like, violated the law. Lying seems second nature to
them, though it's unclear whether they know they're lying." This one is a recommendation for anyone who liked Queen of Versailles.


The third in an indie romantic trilogy, Before Midnight, will expand into 891 theatres. In three weekends, it's earned $1.5 million and stellar per-screen averages. Its strong performance in limited release plus the name recognition suggests this Sony Pictures Classics release could have the same good fortune as another one of their similarly titled releases, Midnight in Paris. The Woody Allen-directed light romance had a similar expansion pattern and ended up earning $56 million over several months. That movie earned $5.8 million when it expanded to 900 locations, so if Before Midnight hits that target, it should be in excellent shape.


On Monday, we'll see if Man of Steel hit Warner Bros.' opening estimates or those of outside prognosticators, if This Is The End earned the stoner comedy seal of approval from its fans, and if Before Midnight is on track to be a specialty hit on par with Midnight in Paris.


 


 



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