'Monsters University' and 'World War Z' both score with audiences

One prediction held true this weekend. The total box office did top $200 million, but the distribution among the top three films was markedly different than many predictions. The troubled production World War Z was given a cautious weekend estimate of $40 million. Instead, the Brad Pitt-led zombie epic earned $66 million, the second-highest second-place opening ever. After shelving plans for a trilogy when the production ran into trouble, Paramount has already announced that it is working on the next chapter in the zombie epidemic story.

In first place, Monsters University continued Pixar's number-one opening record, debuting to $82 million. Audiences gave it an "A" rating, and it will likely play much stronger than last month's animated Epic. However, the silly sequel drew fewer non-family audiences than other Pixar movies: a little over a quarter of the audience didn't come as a family, compared to around a third for Brave. The movie will face tough competition in less than two weeks from Despicable Me 2, which has promised a larger dose of its adorable minions to viewers.

Man of Steel was crushed by the two new releases, particularly World War Z, which likely poached away some of its audience. The Superman relaunch dived 65% to $41 million. Still, that's not horrible for a movie that opened comfortably over $100 million, and holds the number-one spot (over WWZ) overseas.

In its second-week expansion, The Bling Ring narrowly missed placing in the top ten, cashing in with $2 million and an eleventh-place finish. Its $3,000 per-screen average was a grand off the average of fellow A24 release Spring Breakers, indicating that the movie will likely end up under that movie's $15 million cumulative to date, or that it's still in the process of building momentum. Much Ado About Nothing averaged $3,700 per screen for a total of $762,000. Its first major expansion, from 23 to 206 theatres, paid off, and the movie is outpacing other indies like The East, which earned half as much, $348,000, while playing in the same number of theatres.

This Friday will bring in two solid new releases. The action-packed White House Down will see the Presidential residence under siege, and Melissa McCarthy and Sandra Bullock will star in the buddy-cop comedy The Heat.

'Monsters University' could outscare 'World War Z'

In a weekend filled with strong films, where the total box office should exceed $200 million, at least one may end up being squeezed out. Many in the industry expect that film to be World War Z (3,607 theatres), an expensive tentpole that may have a hard time opening above $50 million. Originally aiming for a Christmas release, Paramount scrapped the third act and did extensive reshoots to salvage the Brad Pitt-led zombie feature. Our critic Chris Barsanti found the finished product to contain traces of these problems, calling the globe-spanning movie "ambitious but confused." I found the tale of a zombie epidemic to be overhauled to my satisfaction--extremely frightening but also the kind of movie that favors more strategic zombie-killing over video game-style wholesale slaughtering. Early word-of-mouth among viewers and critics (68% of Rotten Tomatoes critics dubbed WWZ "fresh"), along with strong overseas returns, should help World War Z have stamina long after opening weekend. This weekend it will have to swim against the current, going against the second weekend of Man of Steel, which could top $50 million.

The kids who originally saw Monsters Inc. twelve years ago are all grown up, and some of them may even be in college. So it makes some sense that the prequel to the movie, Monsters University (4,004 theatres), takes place in the halls of higher education. While Pixar movies often do well with all-ages audiences, including young adults, FJI critic Daniel Eagan predicts that "customers who
remember the studio's earlier efforts may be less impressed by a
movie so calculated and predictable." Signs of Pixar's top-dog rank are there, from a "consistently pleasant" feel to great animation, but the plot "plays out like a standard college
comedy, a cleaned-up Adam Sandler or Will Ferrell vehicle." Those looking for another Up or Wall-E may want to skip this one, but it should still open north of $70 million.

After a strong debut weekend, The Bling Ring will expand in to 650 theatres. A24, the distributor behind another bad-teen film, Spring Breakers, is deploying a similar expansion strategy: follow a strong opening weekend with an aggressive expansion. Bling Ring will follow in Spring Breakers' footsteps, but shave 350 theatres off its second-week expansion total to compensate for its lower opening weekend.  The two movies pair an auteur director (Harmony Korine, Sofia Coppola) with a subject filled with mass appeal--teens gone wild. In this case, the teens robbed the houses of celebrities in order to don their clothes, a true-life story that Coppola uses to offer slivers of commentary on youth culture and wealth.

On Monday, we'll see if World War Z was able to gain on Monsters University's perceived lead going into the weekend, and if Bling Ring will be able to replicate the second-week success of Spring Breakers.

Will 'Man of Steel' have a superhero debut over $100 million?

Warner Bros. has estimated that Man of Steel (4,207 theatres) will earn around $80 million this weekend, but that conservative figure could easily be exceeded to come in line with many forecasters' predictions of a $100 million opening. That would put the superhero movie well behind the $174 million opening of Iron Man 3, but slightly ahead of the $96 million earned by
Fast & Furious 6. The film itself is tracking 58% positive, consistent with the mixed appraisal by our critic Chris Barsanti, who applauds the performance of Henry Cavill as Superman but faults director Zack Snyder for "[burying] him inside a drearily violent, flashback-riddled story." In comparison, Iron Man 3 earned approvals from 78% of critics, and Fast & Furious 6 had a "fresh" rating from 71% of critics. However, those two movies are established franchises, while Man of Steel relaunches one--could curiosity boost opening weekend?

A comedy filled with stars playing versions of themselves, This Is The End (3,055 theatres) is a "masterful comedy filmmaking, all the more impressive for its
loose-limbed apparent casualness," our Frank Lovece notes approvingly. Seth Rogen, Jay Baruchel, and James Franco
star as versions of themselves who (humorously) struggle to survive an apocalypse. Rogen also co-directed and co-wrote the comedy with filmmaking partner Evan Goldberg. This Is The End opened to $7.8 million on Wednesday, and could end up in the mid-$30 million range by the weekend, which would put it in the same company as another well-regarded Rogen comedy, Pineapple Express. Good reviews for this feature will keep it running in coming weeks.

The real-life story about a group of teens who robbed celebrities for their designer bags and heels gets the Sofia Coppola treatment in The Bling Ring (5 theatres). Sure, the multiple robberies carried out by the clan are "repetitive," as explained by our critic David Noh, but I also found them
to be hypnotic. Once caught, the well-clad teens describe their foibles as "learning experiences," one reason Noh was astonished by how "little comprehension the perps show
that they've, like, violated the law. Lying seems second nature to
them, though it's unclear whether they know they're lying." This one is a recommendation for anyone who liked Queen of Versailles.

The third in an indie romantic trilogy, Before Midnight, will expand into 891 theatres. In three weekends, it's earned $1.5 million and stellar per-screen averages. Its strong performance in limited release plus the name recognition suggests this Sony Pictures Classics release could have the same good fortune as another one of their similarly titled releases, Midnight in Paris. The Woody Allen-directed light romance had a similar expansion pattern and ended up earning $56 million over several months. That movie earned $5.8 million when it expanded to 900 locations, so if Before Midnight hits that target, it should be in excellent shape.

On Monday, we'll see if Man of Steel hit Warner Bros.' opening estimates or those of outside prognosticators, if This Is The End earned the stoner comedy seal of approval from its fans, and if Before Midnight is on track to be a specialty hit on par with Midnight in Paris.

 

 

Cannes reception bodes well for June release 'Bling Ring'

The Cannes crowd reportedly gave a chilly reception to The Great Gatsby, but early reviews for Sofia Coppola's The Bling Ring have been more positive. It's worth noting that these reactions come from the very same crowd that booed her 2004 effort, Marie Antoinette. The A24 Films release comes out in the U.S. on June 14, and I think it could do big business, drawing in young crowds who think they're getting another Mean Girls along with cinephiles interested in Coppola's latest.

Variety and THR came in with opposite reactions, though both had positive things to say. THR called the work "beautifully shot but light on social commentary," while Variety opined that "when future generations want to understand how we lived at the dawn of the plugged-in, privacy-free, Paris Hilton-ized 21st century, there will likely be few films more instructive than The Bling Ring." THR appears to be in the minority with this view, but it's interesting that one critic argues there is no larger statement, while the other thinks the work is emblematic of a generation.

Coppola based her screenplay on an article in Vanity Fair about the real-life Bling Ring, a group of kids who decided to rob celebrities of their clothes and Birkin bags. They hit Paris Hilton, Lindsay Lohan, Orlando Bloom, and Megan Fox before they were finally caught on surveillance cameras and stood trial. Emma Watson leads a cast of unknowns who play the rest of the five-fingered discount crew, and Leslie Mann plays the goofy, hippie mom who homeschools Watson and her best friend and adopted sister (Taissa Farmiga, who is the younger sister, by 21 years, of actress Vera Farmiga). Coppola has always been fascinated by celebrity, but she usually focuses on the ennui of the already famous. This time, she focuses on the wannabes. Growing up just outside the world of the rich and famous, they have a sense of entitlement about their actions. Coppola wisely doesn't mock them within the film, leading to a "intriguingly intuitive and atmospheric movie," according to the Guardian.

A24 is the same distributor that released Spring Breakers, and their trio of releases so far have focused on youth, transgression, and celebrity, to varying degrees. In an roundup, The New York Times' A.O. Scott grouped together Spring Breakers, The Great Gatsby, and The Bling Ring, calling them "fables of acquisition" that speak to the current articulation of the American Dream. If Bling Ring indeed hits a cultural sweet spot, it's possible the movie could catch on beyond the "target hipster demo" predicted by Variety.

Emma Watson and Sofia Coppola team up for 'The Bling Ring'

Every once in a while you hear of a project pairing that makes perfect sense. That's how I feel about Sofia Coppola directing The Bling Ring. The movie will be based on the true story of a few status-conscious L.A. teenagers who stole clothes, jewelry, cash, and drugs from celebrities such as Paris Hilton and Lindsay Lohan. They broke in, raided their closets, and then wore the stolen loot out to the clubs frequented by the same celebrities.

The teens were profiled in a memorable 2010 Vanity Fair article. While they came from backgrounds characterized by strife, they were also the product of fairly well-off families, many of whom had jobs in the movie industry. Adding another dimension to the whole tale, two of the teens were going to potentially be celebrities themselves. They were being followed for a reality show called "Pretty Wild." That got complicated once its stars were arrested. Lifetime got to the project first, though I imagine the TV movie will not bear more than a passing resemblance to Coppola's project.

Coppola's known for her moody, character-driven pieces. I loved her most recent work, Somewhere, which centered on a bored and depressed celebrity living at the Chateau Marmont reconnecting with his daughter. I think The Bling Ring will be a good chance for her to combine her knack for ennui with an actual plot. Coppola knocks tone out of the park, but she rarely tries to combine that with actual action and thrills.  She's said she wants to use the case to "reveal a sobering view of our modern culture" and comment on the celebrity machine. Who better to do that than Coppola?

She's already cast Harry Potter's Emma Watson in one of the lead roles. In the real-life case, there were a few major players and more on the sidelines, so I imagine the number of leads could depend on what works for the adaptation. Looking up to celebrities is nothing new, but the extremes these kids went to in order to feel like they were as cool as celebrities is extreme. At the same time, tabloids like TMZ have further removed the wall between the star and the audience. These paparazzi are like private detectives, following the stars' every move. Perhaps it's only a natural extension of this invasion of privacy that drove the teens to break into their houses and steal everything they thought would make them like the pretty faces they saw in the magazines. Given Coppola's already insidery view on celebrity, she'll be able to make this tale both real and precisely critical.