Regardless of which sequel proves victorious this weekend, Sex Tape will likely earn less than both. The comedy from Bad Teacher director Jake Kasdan and starring Teacher’s Cameron Diaz and Jason Segel has received terrible reviews, currently stalling at 16 percent rotten on Rotten Tomatoes. Still, the combined star wattage of Diaz and Segel should be enough to lure a sizable audience. Pundits are predicting an opening weekend gross somewhere between Diaz’s The Other Woman, which bowed to $24.8 million, and Bad Teacher, which opened to $31.6 million.
Planes: Fire and Rescue should land in fourth place, taking advantage of the dearth of family movies to roughly match the debut of its predecessor, Planes, and gross around $20 million.
The specialty box office welcomes newcomers Persecuted and Wish I Was Here this weekend, both of which are looking to tap existing fan bases. In the case of Persecuted, those fans would be Christians, the faith-based set that has made successes of recent films God’s Not Dead and Heaven Is for Real. Screening in 736 theatres, Persecuted could well open around $2 million.
The fate of Wish I Was Here, the second movie from Zach Braff after 2004’s cult favorite Garden State, is a little more uncertain. Fans of State will likely comprise the majority of Here’s audience, although the movie’s poor reviews may keep some otherwise eager viewers away. In all likelihood the movie will ride the goodwill of Garden State to a strong opening weekend, but expect a steady if not steep dip from there on out.