So 3D films make lots of money...but will it last?

By Sarah Sluis

2010 is the year of the 3D deluge. Last year started out small, with an evenly-spaced array of movies like Coraline, Monsters vs. Aliens, and Up. Then there was Avatar, the movie that brought 3D to the masses. Those who hadn't viewed any of the 3D movies in niche genres like animation, horror, or concerts turned out for their first 3D experience en masse. ShoWest this year wasn't even about selling the idea of digital and 3D conversion to exhibitors. The consensus has already been reached, and now everyone's just trying to figure out how to switch over as fast as they can.

This weekend, up to four 3D movies will be in the top ten--and that's with a huge lack of 3D screens, which can't be installed fast enough to keep up with demand. But Clash of the Titans' entrance into the marketplace will be a dilution of the 3D experience that could threaten the model of 3D. Like Alice in Wonderland, another movie I was thoroughly disappointed in, Clash of the Titans went 3D in post-production, which gives the 3D a schlocky look without any of the artistry that comes from incorporating 3D sequences from the beginning. When you start devaluing the 3D experience, people won't be willing to pay for it. I don't mind paying a little extra for 3D, but if people start catching on to the fact that some movies are being released in 3D purely for the $3+ ticket price hike, there will be resistance. Already, I've heard many people in New York comment on the exorbitant prices to see movies in 3D IMAX, where tickets in Manhattan go for $19.50. Usually, complaints come in the form of "I could do X for that..." In New York, people can see live shows for less.

3D ticket prices are also going up. According to Variety, not only have exhibitors recently hiked 3D prices, they have done so unevenly, with AMC supposedly raising prices for Alice in Wonderland "just $3" compared to other 3D movies. I would support varied 3D pricing based on whether or not the movie is authored in 3D, but it's an unusual precedent to set. However, this may be just a limited test. Pricing was consistent across films when I checked AMC prices on Fandango: A non-3D movie like The Last Song went for $12.50, 3D screens showing How to Train Your Dragon and Alice in Wonderland were retailing for $17.50, and the "3D IMAX Experience" of How to Train Your Dragon went for $19.50.

The Wall Street Journal has also commented on the 3D craze, with one astute film historian, Peter Decherney, predicting that 3D films will decrease once film studios figure out how to monetize Internet revenue, just as 3D films in the 1950s disappeared once studios embraced television instead of viewing it as competition. That's the best historically-grounded argument I've heard about the future of 3D to date. While I think the 3D medium is sound and here to stay, it will only be produced as long as audiences are willing to pay for it--and I'm not willing to bet on the whims of American public just yet.

There's still over twenty 3D movies left in the 2010 slate, so there will be plenty of examples to see how 3D hashes out over the remainder of the year.

'How to Train Your Dragon' soars to the top of box office

By Sarah Sluis

How to Train Your Dragon easily landed in first place its opening weekend with a $43.3 million gross, two-and-a-half times the take of the first runner-up, Alice in Wonderland ($17.3 million). Despite strong reviews, the family-skewing animated movie earned far less than Alice's opening weekend. Like Alice, it should have strong grosses week-to-week, but will have to overcome one significant challenge. Clash of the Titans opens in 3D this Friday, taking away screens from Dragon. This could push the per-screen gross up higher, but it also means there will be fewer time slots and more crowding for Dragon.

Hot Tub Time Machine debuted third with $13.6 million. The retro-themed plot drew in males aged twenty-five and up, many of whom lived through the '80s and enjoyed the comedic rehash of the era. Though not a flop, the movie just barely edged out the second-week performance of The Bounty Hunter ($12.4 million), a romantic comedy with broader appeal.

Greenberg added 178 playdates to its run to end the weekend with $1.05 million, ending with a strong $5,000 per-theatre average. The steamy art film Chloe opened to $1 million, but its per-theatre average was a bit lower, $2,000 per screen. The Runaways hasn't been as catchy as Apparition may have hoped, dropping in its second week even as it added screens. The teen rock biopic made $445,000 and fell 44% from last week.

In just five locations, Disney documentary Waking Sleeping Beauty debuted to $33,000, with a respectable $6,600 per screen.

This Friday, 3D Clash of the Titans will open alongside Tyler Perry's Why Did I Get Married Too? Disney's The Last Song will jump the gun with a debut this Wednesday, certain to draw in hordes of Miley Cyrus fans.

'Alice' reigns for a third week with 'Wimpy Kid' not far behind

By Sarah Sluis

Alice in Wonderland enjoyed a third week at #1, with another $34.5 million and a sub-50% drop. Next week the Tim Burton fantasy will lose 3D screens and viewers to DreamWorks Animation's How to Train Your Dragon, but its $265 million cumulative domestic gross (to date) puts it in good shape as it finishes out its run.

Diary of a Wimpy Kid was the surprise #2, earning $21.6 million to edge out The Bounty Hunter. Making good on the adage that girls are willing to see movies with boy stars (the reverse is not held to be true), the movie drew 50% males and 50% females despite its all-boy cast. Strong advance tickets sales from its fan base made for a solid weekend as a whole, with the movie playing consistently Friday through Sunday. I wouldn't be surprised to see a sequel to this movie if the stars' puberty doesn't get in the way.

The Bounty Hunter debuted in third place with $21 million. Jennifer Aniston and Gerard Butler were able to wield their star power to their advantage despite critical cries that they were phoning it in. The movie earned just a 9% rating on Rotten Tomatoes, bad even for a movie from the romantic comedy genre. I guess the addition of the "thriller/action" element helped plunge this movie even farther down in critical reception. I have stronger hopes for Aniston's next romantic comedy project, The Switch (previously titled The Baster), which will release this August.

Universal's Repo Men failed to meet even the studio's modest expectations, tallying a meager $6.1 million. The sci-fi clunker had little to enchant audiences. And with the health care reform bill passing Sunday night, the idea of a futuristic corporation repossessing replacement organs is a fear far from most Americans' minds.

The Runaways opened to $803,000 in limited release, for a per-theatre average of $3,200. The opening is on the low side for a movie with a planned expansion, so this rock biopic will need to find a way to gain speed, not lose it, as it moves into wide release. If the per-theatre average goes down, as it is apt to do in subsequent weeks, this movie will not be in good shape.

Greenberg kept its distribution to three theatres for a high per-theatre average of $40,000. The neurotic dramedy from director Noah Baumbach will also expand this Friday, and its strong debut should carry it into a profitable second week.

This Friday, How to Train Your Dragon will swoop into theatres alongside '80s retro-comedy Hot Tub Time Machine.

Audiences don looking-glasses for 'Alice'

By Sarah Sluis

Alice in Wonderland continued its boffo box office with another first-place finish. The 3D fantasy dropped less than 50% to bring in $62 million. Despite more middling reviews, this 3D blockbuster is way ahead of last year's failed Big March Film, Watchmen. Alice has already done twice the business of that movie's cumulative gross, making the March slot a more profitable time for exhibitors. This week's top ten movies grossed over 50% more than their counterparts in 2009. Tickets from more expensive 3D and IMAX venues added to the bump. IMAX screens for Alice in Wonderland, for example, accounted for 2% of the screens but 13% of profit.

Green Zone debuted in second place with $14.5 million. The open was far less profitable than the last Matt Damon-Paul Greengrass effort, The Bourne Ultimatum, and offered yet another example of Iraq War-related movies doing poorly at the box office. With over $100 million in production costs, this movie definitely won't break even in theatres.

Under-the-radar comedy She's Out of My League opened to $9.6 million, slightly above expectations. By comparison, Fox Searchlight's Our Family Wedding debuted with $7.6 million.

The tale of a Hispanic woman marrying a black man, to predictable and

comedic family strife, drew mainly Hispanic and black audiences.

Though the comedy earned less than its competitor, Wedding boasted a higher per-screen average ($4,700 vs. $3,200 for League)

thanks to its smaller, more targeted release.

Despite the presence of Twilight star Robert Pattinson, Remember Me opened at an unimpressive $8.3 million. Women comprised about 80% of the audience, but apparently a Twilight star alone does not a blockbuster make. I'll be watching to see if The Runaways, starring Twilighter Kristen Stewart and Dakota Fanning, draws more eyes.

On the heels of its Best Picture win at the Oscars, The Hurt Locker earned $828,000 in 349 theatres. Combined with last week's $439,000 gross, the movie has racked up over $1 million from its re-release, even though the DVD is already in stores. Overall, the Oscars didn't give much of a bump to winners' grosses, with many films showing substantial drops from the previous week (The Blind Side was an exception.) The Oscars were scheduled later this year to avoid conflicting with the Olympics, so most of these movies' wins will spike DVD rather than ticket sales.

This Friday, adult comedy The Bounty Hunter, a comedy for the elementary set, Diary of a Wimpy Kid, and sci-fi action movie Repo Men will compete for audiences and try to unseat Alice from the top spot.

'Alice in Wonderland' on track for a fantastic opening weekend

By Sarah Sluis

Alice in Wonderland opens this weekend in an astounding 3,728 theatres, 2,063 of which will be in 3D, along with 180 IMAX theatres. The movie is expected to earn in the $70 million range for its opening weekend, on par with the first weekend of Avatar. Sadly, though, the 3D doesn't even come close to Avatar's. Instead of being shot with 3D cameras, the 3D was added in post-production, a difference noticeable to my eyes. Take the foliage in both of the movies: in Avatar, it's enchanting, but in Alice, it often seemed muddled, distracting, or even eye-straining to watch. Critical response has been mixed, with a current 54% on Rotten Tomatoes. FJI critic Ethan Alter found that director Tim Burton fell short. "When he's at the top of his game, Burton is able to marry his surrealistic visual sensibility with a plot powered by a strong emotional through-line," but the "potent storyline" of a "young woman who finds the courage to defy convention and follow her dreams...gets lost amidst all the banal wonders of his Wonderland." Despite these flaws, the movie will be seen by millions of people, and its $250 million price tag will be offset by that strength of Disney's, merchandising.

Yet another R-rated movie, Brooklyn's Finest (1,936 theatres), will round out the weekend's box office. From director Antoine Fuqua (Training Day), the cop movie suffers from an "overwhelming sense of dj vu," according to critic Daniel Eagan. While populated by talented actors, including Ethan Hawke, Don Cheadle, Wesley Snipes and Ellen Barkin, their stories are timeworn, with "equally threadbare plots that leave no clich unplumbed, no coincidence ignored, no cheap irony neglected."

While Avatar was in fourth place last weekend, it will take a hit as Alice replaces Avatar on IMAX and many 3D screens. Second-weeker Cop Out will have to battle serious-minded police movie Brooklyn's Finest, and Percy Jackson & The Olympians: The Lightning Thief will take a hit as family-friendly Alice comes into view. Oscar fever will help shore up specialty fare such as A Prophet, The Last Station, Crazy Heart, The Blind Side, and a half-dozen others. When the Oscar ceremony begins at 8pm EST on Sunday, I'll be in one place: parked in front of my television and hoping for a few surprises.

Release windows down the rabbit hole for 'Alice in Wonderland'

By Sarah Sluis

Alice in Wonderland already had a bit of drama since it will replace Avatar on IMAX and many 3D screens when it opens March 5, despite the fact that Avatar is still bringing in lots of money. Now, Disney has announced that they want the movie to run in theatres for 13 weeks instead of the standard 16 weeks, so the movie can in turn come out on DVD, Blu-ray, and VOD that much faster. They'll have to compensate exhibitors to sweeten the deal, perhaps by changing the revenue split, but Disney was already able to work this out in the U.K., where the World Cup in June makes those last weeks less valuable anyway.

Disney head Bob Iger had already mentioned that the company plans on changing release windows to maximize profits, but this will be the first major play to change the release pattern of a major film. As a family movie, Alice in Wonderland is still in the position to sell a lot of DVDs in a market that has been softening. With a shorter time period between theatrical release and rental/purchase, marketing for the latter can be scaled back since awareness will still be high. However, it's worth noting that rental services like Netflix and Blockbuster Online allow you to add films to your queue that are still out in theatres. Even if you've forgotten about a movie, it's still in your queue and ready to watch once it comes out. Services like this, while not yet in wide use, could dramatically alter the theatre-to-rental landscape in the future.

Besides changing the release window, Alice in Wonderland has quietly become one of the most expensive movies to be made. Box Office Spy estimates production costs exceeded $230 million. While that seems like quite a sum, director Tim Burton has a strong track record. 2005's Charlie and the Chocolate Factory, which he directed (and which also starred Johnny Depp) earned $474 million at the worldwide box office (with a reported production budget of $130 million). Alice in Wonderland is an even better-known story. And because Disney made a G-rated version in the '50s, the new Alice in Wonderland seems even more family-friendly than it probably is, knowing Tim Burton. In fact, the new version, which was just rated, received a PG for "fantasy action/violence involving scary images and situations, and

for a smoking caterpillar" (emphasis mine).

Already holding the honor for the most memorable Super Bowl movie ad, according to a poll by MovieTickets.com, Alice in Wonderland is on the fast track to being a moneymaker with what appears to be a carefully calculated eye to release window and budgeting.

Kids rule at the major studios

By Sarah Sluis

Alice in Wonderland adds Anne Hathaway
Anne Hathaway has played a princess before, but for her next project she's graduated to queen, signing
on to play the White Queen in Tim Burton's adaptation of Alice in Wonderland.  Johnny Depp and Helena Bonham Carter, two of his recurring casting choices, are already in place as the Mad Hatter and the Red Queen, respectively.  Eighteen-year-old Mia Wasikowska, who has a role in this winter's Defiance, will play the part of Alice--no doubt her girlish look combined with her over-eighteen status informed the decision, since she won't be restricted by the laws limiting the hours of child actors.  Using a combination of live action and performance capture, Burton's film will likely work off the dark but family-friendly style of his film Charlie and the Chocolate Factory, but I am curious about how Burton will integrate the performance capture.  Will he use it for animal characters like the Cheshire Cat, or will the film have a Roger Rabbit look?

Tom Thumb film in works
Continuing in the vein of children's folk stories, Warner Brothers plans to adapt Tom Thumb, and has attached Enchanted and Tarzan director Kevin Lima to the project.  Under development through the Red Wagon label, the producers hope to spin the story by focusing on the beginnings of Tom Thumb.  They're enlisting Robert Rodat to write the screenplay.  While best known for his screenplay Saving Private Ryan and war follow-up The Patriot, he got his start writing family pictures Fly Away Home and Tall Tale, and will serve as a good choice if the producers want to emphasize the battles and adventures of the thimble-sized hero.  The producers are also undecided about representation of the little man, with live action and CGI both being thrown around as options.

Studios' production slate rich in kid and teen pictures
While Tom Thumb is still in the development phase, Alice in Wonderland will join other a large number of projects going into production now that some of the uncertainty surrounding the renewal of the SAG contracts has blown over.  Variety compiled a list of over forty projects going into production.  A substantial amount target child and teen audiences:

• Ramona, the classic children's book by Beverly Cleary



• Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows



• Percy Jackson and the Lightning Thief, a Harry Potter knockoff based on a book series about a boy who realizes he is the descendant of a Greek god (directed by Harry Potter alum Chris Columbus)



• Tooth Fairy, which looks to be an Elf-like comedic riff on the coins-for-teeth fairy (if you replace Will Ferrell with stone-faced Dwayne "The Rock" Johnson)



• Diary of a Wimpy Kid, an adaptation of a series of cartoon books



• Mars Needs Moms, another illustrated storybook adaptation



• Scott Pilgrim vs. The World, a live action adaptation of the anime-styled comic book



• Footloose remake, starring Zac Efron and sure to draw in tweens and teens



• Fame remake, another song-and-dance high school film

One trend in this slate of films is the popularity of graphic or comic novels as a literary source.  With adaptations of action and superhero comics doing so well in the box office, there has been an increased demand to develop books that mine the comic book format, using panels or incorporating illustrations and letters into their stories.  Spielberg, for example, is directing animated Tin Tin, based on the French comic.  The richness and depth of plot in these stories, however, can be as much help as hindrance, as writers must sift through and delete material over the course of the adaptation.  Of all these projects, however, I am most enthusiastic about Burton's Alice in Wonderland, which will be much more about the actors' interpretations of the characters rather than the plot of the original (and rarely read by children anymore) Alice Adventure's in Wonderland.