Bad string of movies hurts Wall Street ratings of movie theatre chains

March needs a hit. Last year it was The Hunger Games, the year before was Rango, and the year before that was Alice in Wonderland. March hits are kind of like spring weather though--unpredictable. Last year the top three March releases earned $758 million. In 2011, though, the top three only added up to $285 million. 2010 was good year, with the top three totaling $618 million. So March is fickle, but so are Wall Street analysts. Analyst Eric Wold of B. Riley Caris recently downgraded the ratings of Carmike, AMC, and Cinemark from buy to neutral, sending their prices sliding downward.

Caris' main reason for the downgrade was the low opening of Jack the Giant Slayer, which should have been a bright spot in six weeks of disappointing box-office returns. He now predicts there will be a year-over-year decline of 15% in the first quarter, instead of 10%. This Friday's release Oz the Great and Powerful should do better than Jack, but it's unlikely it will approach the huge success of Alice in Wonderland.

The unfortunate thing is that the downgraded ratings have nothing to do with the theatres themselves. As many theatre owners have told me during interviews, it's all about the product. If there are good movies, people come. Theatres can dial up the experience with great service and presentation, but without great movies, people stay home.

Now for the good news. Wall Street analysts only care about the next quarter, not the long-term future of the business. This may be a bad March, but what about the summer and winter ahead? Or the amazing lineup of Oscar nominees a few weekends ago, most of which earned over $100 million at the box office? In the wake of so much change, whether it's day-and-date on-demand releases or digital projection, the exhibition industry has been holding strong, and a few bad movies aren't anything the industry hasn't seen before or won't see again.

'Jack the Giant Slayer' disappoints but still climbs to the top

This weekend was a disappointing one. Although Jack the Giant Slayer debuted at first place with $28 million, the special-effects heavy picture cost over $200 million, making it a costly flop for
Warner Bros. There's a chance the action-heavy fairytale adaptation will play better overseas, eventually bringing it to a break-even or profitable position, but at home, it's not good. The studio was aiming for a family-friendly tentpole that also plays well among general audiences, last perfected with Alice in Wonderland, but it didn't happen. That movie had the benefit of director Tim Burton and a better-known story. That may have made at least part of the difference between that fantasy's $116 million opening and this one's $28 million debut.

21 and Over opened to $9 million. Although the R-rated college comedy cribbed a lot of its feel from last year's Project X, it only opened to half as much. Project X was set in high school and used
the found footage style, while 21 and Over was shot classically and upped the age to college. Maybe those things made a difference, or maybe audiences are fatigued of the genre.

The Last Exorcism Part II also fell short. The horror sequel's $8 million opening wasn't even half of the original's $20 million start. Like 21 and Over, its similar predecessor used found footage, while the follow-up didn't. While it seems like the market for found footage films is near-saturated, maybe that's not actually the case.

Placing above 21 and Over and The Last Exorcism Part II was Identity Thief, which dipped just 30% to place second with $9.7 million. In a weak month, Identity Thief was the bright spot.

The weekend after the Oscars was good to the winners. Best Picture recipient Argo rose 20% to $2.2 million, even though it's available on DVD and on-demand. Silver Linings Playbook posted a 3% rise to $5.9 million. Life of Pi, which came away with more awards than many expected, went up 43% to $2.3 million, earning even more than Argo.

Fox Searchlight's Stoker had a strong debut in limited release, averaging $22,000 per screen in seven locations. It's the first prominent indie to release since early January.

This Friday, Oz the Great and Powerful will try its luck at replicating the Alice in Wonderland formula, and FilmDistrict will add the latest adult thriller to the market with Dead Man Down.

'Jack the Giant Slayer' sets its sights on the clouds

Depending on how Jack the Giant Slayer (3,525 theatres) opens today, the first of March, the box office may come in like a lion, and out like a lamb. Usually mid-March holds at least one blockbuster, like Alice in Wonderland--but it's also a prime place to put an extremely expensive flop and hope for the best (see: John Carter). Originally scheduled for release during the busy
summer season, Jack switched to March but didn't get a reprieve from a crowded slate: Another special-effects fantasy, Oz the Great and Powerful, will release next Friday. Forecasts predict that Jack will have a difficult time going above $30 million. "Kids won't be all that impressed by an adventure that recycles so much
material from other movies," FJI critic Daniel Eagan assesses, though "3D and some extended battle sequences" will at least give it mileage among some audiences.

Following in the storied path paved by American Pie and last year's Project X, 21 and Over (2,771 theatres) dangles a risque, R-rated comedy in front of young viewers. The writers of The Hangover, Jon Lucas and Scott
Moore, "who also wound up directing," THR's David Guzman says scathingly, apply the 'one crazy night' format to a guy's 21st birthday, to mostly "dull" results. Even with eager audiences in younger
demographics, the comedy will likely open in the teen millions.

Specialty-seeking audiences looking for a new carrot to nibble on can check out Stoker (7 theatres), which comes from Korean auteur Park Chan-wook making his first English-language feature. The "dreamy, claustrophobic thriller," as described by critic Maitland McDonagh, has a Southern gothic feel and includes a widow (Nicole Kidman), her remote daughter (Mia Wasikowska) and their just-a-touch creepy uncle (Matthew Goode).
Things do not end well. Chan-Wook's visual splendor is in full display, and although you may not like the movie, it's not a waste of time either.

With an oxymoron in the title, people are right to be a bit suspicious of The Last Exorcism Part II (2,700 theatres). The sequel to the hit found-footage film is "soporific," with not enough "genuinely creepy" moments to balance out the anticlimactic ones, according to THR's Frank Scheck. The horror follow-up should end up somewhere below 21 and Over.

Appearing out of nowhere yet releasing in over 2,000 theatres, Phantom is in the vein of Das Boot, The Hunt for Red October and K-19: The Widowmaker. Apparently, it might be better to catch one of those than to go out to the theatres for this. Phantom "harks back to a genre long gone and probably better
forgotten," remarks critic Shirley Sealy. Ed Harris and David Duchovony play Russians, without much in the way of an accent, which subtracted credibility from the enterprise.

On Monday, we'll see if Jack the Giant Slayer was able to defy expectations and eke
out an opening over $30 million, and if the other releases were able to
gain some traction in what looks like a much slower weekend than last
year.