Indiewire polls critics on the best 50 films so far this year

2013 is almost halfway over, though it's doubtful that half of the year's best films so far have released--they'll be coming along in the last three months of 2013. Still, in the name of a check-in, Indiewire polled movie critics about their favorite movies so far this year. The list allows some lesser-known films to shine--but it also lets some more questionable fare rise to the top. I've seen half of the films in the top ten, and a smattering from the rest of the pack. My top ten, however would be much different than IndieWire's aggregate.

In general, the Indiewire-selected critics are daring, opting for polarizing or mixed-review films. The exception is the number-one pick, Before Midnight, which boasts both a strong box-office and critical response that back up it overwhelming lead, with a score of 458 to second-place Upstream Color's 330. I couldn't get through the screener of Upstream Color, so I'm not among the film's supporters. Like the third-place pick, Spring Breakers, both films had very polarized reactions. The glacial pace of Leviathan, the number-seven pick, made me a bit lukewarm on the documentary. I don't think I've ever seen so many critics walk out on a screening, so its high placement surprises me. Further down in the top ten, The Place Beyond the Pines and Side Effects were both films I can get behind. Pines was ambitious but flawed, while Side Effects was the kind of tight genre thriller that should win over the Takens of the world.

Within the top ten, my two favorites are Frances Ha (#4) and Mud (#6), which both delivered beyond my expectations. But my other favorites of the year barely make rank. The Act of Killing (#35) still hasn't had its theatrical release, which means the jaw-dropping documentary may not have been seen by many critics yet. But The Bling Ring (#44) and Twenty Feet from Stardom (#45) also deserve higher placement, as does The East (#50).

Indiewire Top Ten:
1. Before Midnight
2. Upstream Color
3. Spring Breakers
4. Frances Ha
5. Stories We Tell
6. Mud
7. Leviathan
8. The Place Beyond the Pines
9. Side Effects
10. Like Someone In Love

DreamWorks Animation's 'The Croods' discovers fire at the box office

DreamWorks Animation's The Croods hit the sweet spot above $40 million, finishing the weekend with $44.7 million. It was enough to put Wall Street analysts in a good mood, even though a similar opening for How to Train Your Dragon in 2010 made them nervous and sent stock prices downward. I guess this time they have slightly better information about how strongly these animated films
perform after opening weekend. Audiences gave it an "A" rating, but only 38% viewed it in 3D, a relatively low share of the total.

Early 2013 has been filled with adult action films just like Olympus Has Fallen, minus the White House. Yet R-rated, adult male-skewing pictures have mainly fallen flat, leading some to belive there's a glut in product. However, the thriller's setting at the Presidential residence screamed for viewers to pay attention, and they did. Olympus debuted to $30.5 million, well above projections. Yes, 75% of viewers were over 25, but surprisingly Olympus also appealed to women, so the feature 
only skewed 53% male.

As predicted, Admission underwhelmed. Its debut of $6.4 million was even lower than projected. Director Paul Weitz seems to specialize in sweet comedies like About a Boy that end up not doing that strongly at the box office. Now, About a Boy's $8 million opening a decade ago probably looks quite nice. I thought Admission was quite charming, but
audiences didn't agree, giving it a "B-" score in exit polls.  The audience that turned out was discerning: 68% were women, and 47% were over 50. If some of them recommend the movie, though, it could have a pleasantly long run or find some redemption in the VOD/streaming markets. Despite the presence of two recognizable names, Tina Fey and Paul Rudd, the comedy only cost $13 million, so its smaller opening may still put the movie on the road to profitability.

Moving from specialty theatres and SXSW screenings to over 1,000 locations, Spring Breakers did just fine, earning $5.4 million and posting a per-screen average of $4,500 per screen, which was better than the two films that placed ahead of the fifth-place finisher. That's still quite a drop from last weekend's  $87,000 per-screen average. The campy look at spring break exploits may be destined for niche rather than mainstream success, but I think a week or two of more slowly declining returns will be needed to affirm that hunch.

On Thursday, G.I. Joe: Retaliation will launch an early attack on the box office. Then on Friday, Tyler Perry's latest, Temptation: Confessions of a Marriage Counselor, will go up against The Host, which is based on a novel by Twilight author Stephenie Meyer.

'The Croods' kicks off school holiday while 'Spring Breakers' expands for the college set

The first major animated film to open this year, The Croods (4,046 theatres), could easily exceed the mid-$40 million figure Fox is predicting for the DreamWorks Animation production. A debut weekend in that range would put it in line with the March opening of DreamWorks Animation's How to Train Your Dragon. At the time, that opening for Dragon was seen as low, but it ended up grossing five times its opening weekend, or $217 million. That's an excellent multiple. In comparison, DWA's Megamind opened $3 million higher than Dragon but had a cumulative total that was $75 million lower. The difference here is partly one of quality: Dragon had a 98% critics rating to Megamind's 73% approval on Rotten Tomatoes. The Croods is currently falling below both of those numbers: just 61% of critics have come out in favor of the film. One of those is FJI's Kevin Lally, who lauded the "dazzling 3D style" and "lively vocal performances" of the leads. The concept of a
prehistoric family battling to survive feels novel enough, which could give the animated feature a boost. That plus the pent-up demand for a quality animated feature (the ratings are still higher than those for Escape from Planet Earth) and the release timed to kids' spring break could spell great box-office returns.

With an early 2013 glut of R-rated content geared towards adult males, Olympus Has Fallen (3,098 theatres) may be the latest to fall flat. However, the scope and budget of this "Die Hard in the White House" feature at least feels larger than its comparable predecessors. But then you read the reviews. Our Daniel Eagan was unimpressed with the "generic thriller marred by poor special effects." It also earns its R rating with "grim, ugly" and graphic depictions of violence. Gerard Butler, who leads as a Secret Service agent, hasn't been much of a draw for audiences lately (see: Playing for Keeps) and a lackluster opening could only confirm that
his star status is in jeopardy. At least this time, he'll have the help of Morgan Freeman playing House Speaker and acting President.

Tina Fey plays an uptight admissions officer in Admission (2,160 theatres),
a "bracingly smart, affecting romp" that critic David Noh thought was
"one of the best comedies in a while." Paul Rudd plays the leader of an
alternative school who's gunning to get one of his students into
Princeton. Focus is smartly limiting the release, and fewer auditoriums
should lead to a greater concentration of laughter. Still, this one will
open low, to around $10 million, and then will rely on word-of-mouth to
turn it into a quiet, Pitch Perfect-like hit.

Spring Breakers wowed last weekend with a stunning per-screen average. It expands to 1,104 theatres today, and the big question is if its success in specialty theatres in New York and Los Angeles will translate to success across the nation. Because of doubts about the movie's viability, sub-$10 million estimates have been circulating, but I think it could potentially go much, much higher. People drawn in by director Harmony Korine's auteur status will be sitting next to people who are just looking for American Pie-style debauchery.

Opening in just 4 theatres, The Sapphires offers a "familiar but supremely well-told and produced tale" about four Aboriginal young women who entertain the troops during the Vietnam War, assesses critic Doris Toumarkine. The socially aware feature about a group's rise of success, which I gave a shout-out to earlier this week, is a ripe offering for specialty-seeking audiences.

On Monday, we'll see which films were in the winners in a weekend crowded with a number of attractive offerings.

 

'Burt Wonderstone' goes up against second week of 'Oz'

One thing's certain this weekend: Oz the Great and Powerful will place first for the second week in a row. The special effects fantasy should drop a bit less than 50% and earn in the mid-$40 millions. While it's not quite as strong as Disney's 2010 fantasy Alice in Wonderland, the studio did a pretty good job of replicating that successful formula.

Steve Carell and Jim Carrey play rival magicians in The Incredible Burt Wonderstone (3,160 theatres). The last time the comedy duo starred together, Carell was the up-and-comer and Carrey was the big draw. Now, Carell's the big comedy star and Carrey's the one playing second fiddle. The "consistently entertaining diversion" benefits from "a gifted cast that puts a fresh spin on even the most
tried-and-true crowd-pleaser plot developments,"declares FJI critic Michael Sauter. The comedy should approach $20 million. Maybe the success of Identity Thief has put audiences in a good mood and brightened the market for comedies.

Halle Berry plays a 911 operator who gets a call from a girl (Abigail Breslin) who has been kidnapped and confined to a car trunk in The Call (2,507 theatres). Although the thriller is "sometimes straightforward and familiar," notes critic Doris Toumarkine, " it
effectively
revs up audiences and gets them cheering for the good
guys." It's possible the thriller will play like the female version of Taken, and resonate with older female moviegoers.

Reactions to Spring Breakers (3 theatres) have been extreme. Some are focusing on its provenance, from auteur Harmony Korine, but FJI critic David Noh sees the bikini-filled picture as just a "commercial wannabe that still suffers from art-house pretensions." He found the "wild and wooly update of Where
the Boys Are" to be "scarily, snarkily
representative of a generation," which made  him "want to weep for the future." New York's David Edelstein mused that it might be "among the perviest movies ever made — although by spelling out
why, I fear I’ll only make some people want to see it more." Not many raunchy R-rated teen movies elicit such detailed takedowns, so it's fair to say this one is (probably purposely) aggressively offensive.

On Monday, we'll see if The Incredible Burt Wonderstone provided a light comedic counterpoint to the March behemoth Oz the Great and Powerful, and if Spring Breakers proved that sex sells.