So 3D films make lots of money...but will it last?

By Sarah Sluis

2010 is the year of the 3D deluge. Last year started out small, with an evenly-spaced array of movies like Coraline, Monsters vs. Aliens, and Up. Then there was Avatar, the movie that brought 3D to the masses. Those who hadn't viewed any of the 3D movies in niche genres like animation, horror, or concerts turned out for their first 3D experience en masse. ShoWest this year wasn't even about selling the idea of digital and 3D conversion to exhibitors. The consensus has already been reached, and now everyone's just trying to figure out how to switch over as fast as they can.

This weekend, up to four 3D movies will be in the top ten--and that's with a huge lack of 3D screens, which can't be installed fast enough to keep up with demand. But Clash of the Titans' entrance into the marketplace will be a dilution of the 3D experience that could threaten the model of 3D. Like Alice in Wonderland, another movie I was thoroughly disappointed in, Clash of the Titans went 3D in post-production, which gives the 3D a schlocky look without any of the artistry that comes from incorporating 3D sequences from the beginning. When you start devaluing the 3D experience, people won't be willing to pay for it. I don't mind paying a little extra for 3D, but if people start catching on to the fact that some movies are being released in 3D purely for the $3+ ticket price hike, there will be resistance. Already, I've heard many people in New York comment on the exorbitant prices to see movies in 3D IMAX, where tickets in Manhattan go for $19.50. Usually, complaints come in the form of "I could do X for that..." In New York, people can see live shows for less.

3D ticket prices are also going up. According to Variety, not only have exhibitors recently hiked 3D prices, they have done so unevenly, with AMC supposedly raising prices for Alice in Wonderland "just $3" compared to other 3D movies. I would support varied 3D pricing based on whether or not the movie is authored in 3D, but it's an unusual precedent to set. However, this may be just a limited test. Pricing was consistent across films when I checked AMC prices on Fandango: A non-3D movie like The Last Song went for $12.50, 3D screens showing How to Train Your Dragon and Alice in Wonderland were retailing for $17.50, and the "3D IMAX Experience" of How to Train Your Dragon went for $19.50.

The Wall Street Journal has also commented on the 3D craze, with one astute film historian, Peter Decherney, predicting that 3D films will decrease once film studios figure out how to monetize Internet revenue, just as 3D films in the 1950s disappeared once studios embraced television instead of viewing it as competition. That's the best historically-grounded argument I've heard about the future of 3D to date. While I think the 3D medium is sound and here to stay, it will only be produced as long as audiences are willing to pay for it--and I'm not willing to bet on the whims of American public just yet.

There's still over twenty 3D movies left in the 2010 slate, so there will be plenty of examples to see how 3D hashes out over the remainder of the year.