Could Farsite Forecast be to the Oscars what FiveThirtyEight was to politics?

At the Golden Globes on Sunday, nearly every movie was a winner, throwing many predictions for the Oscars askew. This year is tough for prognosticators, but one group, FarsiteForecast.com, claims its statistical model has an edge in predicting who will win the Academy Awards. In the vein of FiveThirtyEight, the blog run by Nate Silver that has proven to incredibly accurate in its predictions about political elections, Farsite applies predective modeling, or data science, to the Oscar race.

While Lincoln has been picked by many bloggers as most likely to win Best Picture at the Oscars, for example, it didn't win either of the Golden Globes' top honors, which went to Argo and Les
Miserables. Shouldn't that great showing raise the odds that one of these films
will win? According to FarsiteForecast.com, which is using data science
to track the Oscar race, the answer is no. The site is currently giving Argo just a 2.3% change of winning and Les Miserables a 1.6% chance of winning. Farsite predicts the race is between Lincoln (38.4% chance of winning) and Silver Linings Playbook (30.8% chance of winning).Since 1989's Driving Miss Daisy, no movie has won the Oscar for Best Film without also being nominated for Best Director. Since neither Argo or Les Miserables received that nomination, the odds are against them.

Other areas where Farsite Forecast predicts a toss-up, I see a clear winner. For Best Actor, they're giving Bradley Cooper and Daniel Day-Lewis nearly equal odds of winning. Personally, I think Day-Lewis underwent a more impressive transformation, but I also think Oscar voters wil want to
reward a "serious" actor of his stature in a film that was most commended for its acting. Cooper is fresh off his roles in The Hangover series.

Cooper is fresh off
his roles in The Hangover series. In his most
critically-acclaimed role yet, could he be the latest Hollywood star to make the
often transition from action and comedy star to Oscar winner? Right now,
he's 7% less likely to win than Day-Lewis, and I think that gap will
widen.

 

When it comes to the Best Actress and Best Supporting Actress, Farsite Forecast has one race in a lock already. Anne Hathaway has an 84.4% chance of winning the Oscar. For Hathaway, it's time to start creating space on the mantle for her statuette. During the Globes, Jennifer Lawrence and Jessica Chastain both won Best Actress, in their respective comedy/drama categories. Lawrence has the edge in the Oscar race, with a 53.3% probability compared to Chastain's 34.6%.

Farsite Forecast's predictions currently match closely with bloggers' top contenders in each race. The model will continue to evolve as we get closer to the race and important guild awards are doled out. Will Farsite Forecast live up to the accuracy of similar models, like FiveThirtyEight's incredible track record at predicting political wins?