'Zero Dark Thirty' could take down 'Gangster Squad'

Since its release three weeks ago, Zero Dark Thirty has earned $5.2 million selling out the small number of theatres showing the well-reviewed feature. This weekend, the CIA procedural thriller will explode into 2,937 theatres. The buzz for this picture could not be higher. It's been the subject of many think pieces on torture, and just last night a panel convened to talk about the movie
on the PBS News Hour--and all this before it has even played to a wide audience. Adult audiences already know this is a quality film and a must-see. Especially with boomers dominating the box office, this may be enough. But Zero Dark Thirty also has the potential to draw in patriotic and military audiences, as well as fans of action thrillers--even though suspense, not gunfights, predominate. Per-screen averages for ZDT started at $80,000, went to $60,000, and
then $40,000 per screen. That's a pretty admirable hold for a film that
released in just five theatres its first two weeks, then 60 locations
last week. If the per-screen average dropped by half, to $20,000 per screen, the
movie would end up with $58 million. No one expects that will happen, but given how strongly the movie is playing, predictions around the $25-30 million
range are more than doable.

Until recently, most expected Gangster Squad (3,103 theatres) would lead this weekend, and with an estimated debut north of $20 million, it still could. Where ZDT is subtle and nuanced,
Gangster Squad is broad and features the splatters of gunfire people may be expecting--and not get--from Zero Dark Thirty. The movie is a heightened, unrealistic look at Los Angeles in the late '40s, "based on a true story" in a very loose way. The kind of movie where every other line out of an actor's mouth is a zinger. That may turn some viewers (including myself) off, but others may like the mindless diverson, which is kind of like an exaggerated parody of L.A. Confidential, but played straight. The "campy sheen should broaden its appeal," predicts FJI critic Chris Barsanti. Director Ruben Fleischer "blasts through to the finish, trusting in
speed, a solid cast, and the smartly polished period design to make
all the implausibilities and plot loopholes whip past agreeably
enough."

Also in the mix this weekend is a comedy from the Wayans Brothers, A Haunted House (2,160
theatres).  The spoof of Paranormal Activity centers on a man who tries to exorcise a demon from his girlfriend. A $10-15 million weekend would be good news for this low-budget feature.

Quartet (2 theatres), "far more delicate than The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel," offers an "endearing treatise on aging and music," according to FJI's David Noh. If even a fraction of the Marigold Hotel audience shows up, this movie will likely be a success. Plus it stars Maggie Smith, of current "Downton Abbey" fame, playing "one of those
difficult, doughty, dragon-lady dowagers" that appears to be her new acting sweet spot.

On Monday, we'll see how Zero Dark Thirty performed when let out of the specialty cage and given a nationwide release, or if Gangster Squad proved more alluring than the hunt for Osama bin Laden.

 

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