Could Farsite Forecast be to the Oscars what FiveThirtyEight was to politics?

At the Golden Globes on Sunday, nearly every movie was a winner, throwing many predictions for the Oscars askew. This year is tough for prognosticators, but one group, FarsiteForecast.com, claims its statistical model has an edge in predicting who will win the Academy Awards. In the vein of FiveThirtyEight, the blog run by Nate Silver that has proven to incredibly accurate in its predictions about political elections, Farsite applies predective modeling, or data science, to the Oscar race.

While Lincoln has been picked by many bloggers as most likely to win Best Picture at the Oscars, for example, it didn't win either of the Golden Globes' top honors, which went to Argo and Les
Miserables. Shouldn't that great showing raise the odds that one of these films
will win? According to FarsiteForecast.com, which is using data science
to track the Oscar race, the answer is no. The site is currently giving Argo just a 2.3% change of winning and Les Miserables a 1.6% chance of winning. Farsite predicts the race is between Lincoln (38.4% chance of winning) and Silver Linings Playbook (30.8% chance of winning).Since 1989's Driving Miss Daisy, no movie has won the Oscar for Best Film without also being nominated for Best Director. Since neither Argo or Les Miserables received that nomination, the odds are against them.

Other areas where Farsite Forecast predicts a toss-up, I see a clear winner. For Best Actor, they're giving Bradley Cooper and Daniel Day-Lewis nearly equal odds of winning. Personally, I think Day-Lewis underwent a more impressive transformation, but I also think Oscar voters wil want to
reward a "serious" actor of his stature in a film that was most commended for its acting. Cooper is fresh off his roles in The Hangover series.

Cooper is fresh off
his roles in The Hangover series. In his most
critically-acclaimed role yet, could he be the latest Hollywood star to make the
often transition from action and comedy star to Oscar winner? Right now,
he's 7% less likely to win than Day-Lewis, and I think that gap will
widen.

 

When it comes to the Best Actress and Best Supporting Actress, Farsite Forecast has one race in a lock already. Anne Hathaway has an 84.4% chance of winning the Oscar. For Hathaway, it's time to start creating space on the mantle for her statuette. During the Globes, Jennifer Lawrence and Jessica Chastain both won Best Actress, in their respective comedy/drama categories. Lawrence has the edge in the Oscar race, with a 53.3% probability compared to Chastain's 34.6%.

Farsite Forecast's predictions currently match closely with bloggers' top contenders in each race. The model will continue to evolve as we get closer to the race and important guild awards are doled out. Will Farsite Forecast live up to the accuracy of similar models, like FiveThirtyEight's incredible track record at predicting political wins?

'Contraband' hijacks first place over MLK Day weekend

The long Martin Luther King, Jr. Day weekend was a boon to studios and exhibitors, with 2012 totals up an estimated 2-4% from last year. On Sunday, the Golden Globes provided publicity to awards darlings like The Iron Lady, The Artist, and The Descendents, all of which should see bumps next week as audiences put these films on their must-see lists.

Opening nearly as well as surprise hit Taken, Contraband earned $28.8 million over four days. The slightly male-skewing, older audience turned out for the remake of Icelandic hit Reykjavik-Rotterdam. The action pic drew praise in exit polls, with most rating the movie an A-.

In second place, the re-release of Beauty and the Beast in 3D conjured up $23.5 million in four days. The animated classic did especially well on the Monday school holiday, which was the second-highest grossing day of the weekend. Unsurprisingly, audiences rated the 1991 movie an A+.

In fourth place, Joyful Noise called out to females over 30. The Dolly Parton-Queen Latifah gospel dramedy earned a praiseful $13.7 million. That's better than the opening of Country Strong last year and on par with Queen Latifah's previous openings.

Word got out about The Devil Inside, and the horror stinker plummeted 76% over the three-day period. Since the movie cost less than $1 million, even this weekend's $9.1 million total is all gravy to the folks at Paramount.

Moving into 800 theatres, The Iron Lady skyrocketed 3,571% to $6.4 million. Meryl Streep's win for Best Actress at the Golden Globes should make this biopic rise even further next week.

Golden Globes Best Drama winner The Descendants dipped 18% to earn another $2.5 million. The Hawaii-set tale has been shedding theatres over the past several weeks (from 878 to 660), perhaps part of a more long-range distribution plan? With its second win by George Clooney for Best Actor, this Alexander Payne-directed film seems like a prime target for further expansion.

The Artist, winner of Best Comedy on Sunday night, was directly behind The Descendants with a total of $1.4 million, a slight increase from last week. This silent, black-and-white tale has done surprisingly well given the hesitations most people usually have with watching movies in such an antiquated mode.

This Friday will be a busy one. Director Steven Soderbergh's action pic Haywire will debut, along with Red Tails, which chronicles the missions of black pilots during WWII.  Underworld Awakening, the fourth in the series, will also open. Finally, 9/11 drama Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close will go from six theatres to over 2,000.

'Footloose' outstepped by 'Real Steel'

By Sarah Sluis

Despite three new wide releases this weekend, last week's Real Steel narrowly won the first place spot by dipping just 40% to $16.3 million. While the robot-centered picture didn't overwhelm in its first outing, its second round has brought the expensive production to a more respectable $51 million cumulative total.

In second place, the reboot of Footloose debuted to $16.1 million. The inexpensive movie drew the greatest support from older females. 75% of all viewers were women, and 73% were over 18. The movie, which is set in a small town, drew the greatest support from Heartland locales, with Salt Lake City and Oklahoma City receiving the honors of being the dance film's top two markets. Former "Dancing with the Stars" regular Julianne Hough stars, so she undoubtedly helped the movie appeal to the show's older female viewers.

The sci-fi/horror remake The Thing underperformed, earning just $8.7 million. The movie joins other scary offerings that have failed to connect with viewers, including Apollo 18 and Dream House. Horror movies are supposed to be low-budget sure things, but the misfire of The Thing shows there are more factors at work. As Halloween approaches, it will be interesting to see if Paranormal Activity 3 helps reverse this trend.

The Big Year was a big bust. The salaries of Steve Martin, Jack Black, and Owen Wilson were probably barely covered by the comedy's paltry $3.3 million opening. I thought making fun of but also celebrating bird watching sounded like a hoot, but audiences didn't agree and critics warned that the feature was not particularly funny.

Director Pedro Almodvar is something of a brand name on the indie circuit, so it's no surprise his latest, The Skin I Live In, earned $38,500 per screen in six locations. The movie ran in the New York Film Festival, giving the Spanish-language genre hybrid additional advance publicity for city dwellers. Such a strong per-screen average sustained over six screens (as opposed to the two often reserved for opening weekend) bodes well for the unusual drama's future.

The generic cop vs. serial killer picture Texas Killing Fields had a rote performance at the box office, averaging $3,000 per screen at three locations. Take Shelter, one of my indie favorites this year, boosted its per-screen average by $500 from last week, even as it doubled the number of theatres in its release. In 24 locations, the drama had a mean of $5,300 per location.

This Friday, Paranormal Activity 3 starts the Halloween horror deluge, Johnny English Reborn offers up British spy humor, and the swashbuckling The Three Musketeers draws its sword.

'Cowboys & Aliens' earns narrow win over 'Smurfs'

By Sarah Sluis

Cowboys & Aliens was hailed by many critics as the rare sci-fi/western genre mash-up that worked. Audiences turned out, but the $36 million fell short of the $40+ million the studio had hoped for. On the bright side, over 63% of audiences were over 30, a demographic that often sees movies weeks after their release. The $160+ million film will have to hold well at the box office to recoup its blockbuster budget.

I put the live-action/CG hybrid The Smurfs in the same category as Alvin and the Chipmunks and Yogi Bear. Critics called the movies stupid and terrible, but parents shrugged their shoulders and indulged their children in the lowbrow fun. More audiences than predicted turned out to see the blue cartoon characters in their very own movie, giving The Smurfs an estimated $35.6 million opening weekend, just under Cowboys & Aliens. Other kid-friendly titles in the top ten fell heavily (50-70%) due to the animated competition. Even Harry Potter "7B," as it's nicknamed on movie marquees, barely leveled its fall, diving another 53% to $21.9 million.

The intergenerational romantic comedy Crazy, Stupid, Love landed in fifth place with $19.3 million. The variety of ages paid off: 71% of audiences were over the age of 25, which also bodes well for coming weeks. The opening is below Carell's summer pic from last year, Dinner for Schmucks, but far ahead of this summer's flop Larry Crowne, which also targeted an older audience.

This week was a busy one for specialty releases. Actor/writer/director Miranda July's The Future, which premiered on just one screen, had the highest screen average, $28,000. Sony Pictures Classics' crime drama The Guard followed, with a $20,000 average on four screens. A couple of big studios went with smaller releases for their films, and succeeded in drawing audiences. Lionsgate's Scarface-styled treatment of Uday Hussein, The Devil's Double, did admirably, using five screens to accumulate a $19,000 per-screen average. Screen Gems' Attack the Block, a would-be cult horror comedy, averaged $16,000 on eight screens. The two latter ones should expand in coming weeks and will be films to watch.

This Friday, the R-rated Freaky Friday-style comedy The Change-Up will release, along with Rise of the Planet of the Apes.

'Rango' lassoes a first-place finish

By Sarah Sluis

This weekend's big winner was Rango, which finished the weekend with $38 million, nearly twice the gross of the competition. Attendance was actually higher than last year's How to Train Your Dragon, which earned $43.7 million thanks to 3D surcharges. For an animated movie, a surprising amount of the audience was above 25: 54%, which is more than one would expect for a film that has the greatest appeal among kids.

In second place, The Adjustment Bureau garnered $20.9 million, carried along by reviews that praised the movie as an adult action-romance that didn't go for the lowest common denominator. It paid off: 73% of the audience was aged 30 or above. Those kinds of numbers spell another payoff for Bureau--a long shelf life, typical for movies skewing older.

The teen fantasy-romance Beastly had a respectable debut, finishing third with $10.1 million. Star power may have had something to do with it. The movie was delayed a year, and just so happened to release just weeks after star Alex Pettyfer made his action-hero debut in I Am Number Four. Enough time for him to get a small following among the teen beat? I think so.

The same cannot be said for Take Me Home Tonight, which wrapped production way, way, back in 2007. Though critic Ethan Alter concluded "there's no glaring reason why [the movie] was benched for so long," in terms of quality, the marketing team may have run into trouble finding a way to generate excitement about this 80s throwback comedy. The comedy finished in a sober eleventh place with $3.5 million. All the Aqua Net in the world couldn't give this movie a lift.

After its Best Picture win and major-category sweep at the Oscars, The King's Speech actually dipped a bit, 11%, to $6.5 million. However, Monday through Thursday the movie overperformed compared to the week before, so perhaps audiences were out catching newer adult fare, like The Adjustment Bureau, instead. The historical drama stands at $123 million, and weeks more of 10% drops could bring it closer to the $150 million mark. The only Oscar nominee/winner to improve from last week was Inside Job, the recipient of the Best Documentary Oscar. The indictment of the financial industry went up 94% to $65,200, adding to its theatrical total of $4.1 million.

In its fourth week, Cedar Rapids added 99 theatres for a total of 235, adding another $815,000 to its $3 million plus total. Happythankyoumoreplease premiered slightly soft, with a per-screen average a light but respectable $15,000.

This Friday, Rango will face competition from the animated Mars Needs Moms. Likewise, Beastly will have to contend with another teen-oriented fantasy romance, Red Riding Hood. Finally, Battle: Los Angeles will offer up some fresh sci-fi action.

'Just Go With It' and 'Justin Bieber' finish neck-and-neck

By Sarah Sluis

After weeks of the top movies hitting the teen millions, three wide releases opened at $25 million or higher.

Just Go with It finished just ahead of Justin Bieber: Never Say Never, earning $30.5 million to the tweenybopper's $29.5 million. The Adam Sandler-Jennifer Aniston romantic comedy benefited from strong performance throughout the weekend, while Bieber's picture drew its biggest audience on Friday. Though he failed to win any Grammys last night, Bieber is still hot and his 3D concert film finished just under Miley Cyrus', and significantly higher than the Jonas Brothers' 2009 movie.

Gnomeo and Juliet boasted a surprisingly high finish in an animated-starved market, accruing $25.5 million. Though it was a "minor" animated film (to use Box Office Mojo's term) with little branding or expectations behind it, it also is distributed by Touchstone, a Walt Disney label. And no one has more experience marketing animated movies than Disney. In comparison, the darker 3D animated film Coraline previously held the record for a February-launched animated film, earning $16 million its opening weekend in 2009.

The Eagle had the most disappointing launch, ending up with $8.5 million. The audience skewed slightly older and attracted slightly more members under 35. Director Kevin MacDonald's (better-rated) 2006 film The Last King of Scotland still holds a spot in Netflix's Top 100 even though it earned just $17 million at the box office, so perhaps The Eagle can recoup some of its losses on DVD?

Opening in 15 theatres, Cedar Rapids was able to average $20,000 per screen, an impressive number that should bode well for future expansion. The mostly upbeat reviews (84% on Rotten Tomatoes) should turn into positive word-of-mouth that will propel this movie in coming weeks.

In the top ten, The King's Speech continued its run of minimal drops, dipping just 4% from last week for a total of $7.4 million. With a cumulative total of $93 million, it will be a week or two at most before it crosses the $100 million mark. I've seen this movie recommended heavily on Facebook in recent weeks as it's expanded into wide release, and yesterday it received an unintentionally amusing endorsement from "60 Minutes" Luddite Andy Rooney himself, who actually met King George. (I wonder what Andy Rooney would think of The Social Network...)

This Friday will also be a busy one. The sci-fi action movie I Am Number Four will open against the amnesia thriller Unknown and fat suit/cross-dressing comedy sequel Big Mommas: Like Father, Like Son.

'The Last Exorcism' claims first place, with 'Takers' not far behind

By Sarah Sluis

The belief that horror movies open big was proved yet again this weekend, with The Last Exorcism grabbing the top spot with $21.3 million. The audience was primarily female and over half Latino, which according to Box Office Mojo is the big market for these kinds of supernatural horror movies.

Takers had to settle for second by a margin of just $300,000, finishing at an estimated $21 million even. The contest is close enough that when the actual numbers come in, the first place winner could be reversed. Though the heist movie features virtually an all-male cast, the gender of

audiences was split almost 50/50. The hunk appeal of the stars may have made this an equal draw for both males and females, with a stylish presentation to boot.

The re-release of Avatar was expected to gross in the high single digit millions, but fell short of that, finishing with $4 million in twelfth place. However, since the movie is already out on home video, many die-hard fans probably already saw the film recently, and the idea of seeing an extra 8 1/2 minutes of footage maybe just wasn't that enticing. The re-release gave 20th Century Fox bragging rights, however: It pushed the movie over the $750 million mark domestically.

Elsewhere in the top ten, Twilight spoof Vampires Suck fell 56% to $5.3 million. The horror movie Piranha 3D plummeted 57% to $4.3 million, a fate that The Last Exorcism will probably endure next week. Lottery Ticket, also in its second week, fell from fourth right out of the top ten to eleventh with $4 million.

Titles with more staying power included Inception and The Other Guys, each of which dipped in the 35% range. Male-driven action movie The Expendables had a strong showing in its third weekend, dipping 44%. Eat Pray Love leveled its fall slightly, dropping 42% this week compared to 47% last week. Its reported budget was $60 million, and the film has now grossed just as much.

This Friday, George Clooney stars as an aging spy in The American, while Grindhouse-inspired Machete takes on the un-American illegal immigration policies through the guise of an exploitation movie. A bicoastal romance between Drew Barrymore and Justin Long, Going the Distance, rounds out the bunch.

A few good films in 2009

By Sarah Sluis
Perhaps it's the part of me that grew up in a world where "participant" ribbons were a standard consolation prize, but I wanted my top ten of 2009 to include some movies that won't be seeing much play at the Oscars or in other top tens, but are good films in their own right. In particular, I wanted to reward fine genre works, whether it was an arthouse take on a police procedural (Bad Lieutenant: Port of Call New Orleans) or that rarest of the rare, a comedy that makes me laugh out loud (almost all of those made the list).

The Hangover: This is not an Oscar comedy. It's not dark and ironic, the protagonists are young, it made lots of money, and it's definitely, definitely not "quiet" or "black." The raunchy comedy earns my top honors because instead of that cringe-worthy tactic of having its characters get into deeper and deeper trouble for laughs (a no-no for sensitive souls like myself), it created humor from having its characters try to pick up all the pieces. Miraculously, it managed to find new ways to shock audiences, and it had the best missing big cat since Bringing Up Baby.

Avatar: James Cameron's work feels like the sci-fi epics I loved

growing up: movies like Jurassic Park and Independence Day that broke

new technological ground and backed it up with a winning story (though

I'm not sure how well Independence Day holds up today). Cameron is a

master at his craft, and no adult will look at 3D the same way. Bonus

points for its environmental bent.

I Love You, Man: Another innovative comedy that turned romantic comedy conventions on their head and used the "falling in love" montage for the film's bromance. Its Rotten Tomato rating (in the eighties) is higher than most "awards" films, but it's received little end-of-the-year love. Having suffered through many terrible romantic comedies this year, it was a pleasure to watch something that was actually laugh-out-loud funny, and a welcome addition to the Judd Apatow-style comedy-bromance genre.

(500) Days of Summer: My indulgent, hipster choice. Young love has never been so ebullient than in this film that mixed up its chronology to make its kiss 'n break-up story novel. Its fantastic musical sequence (staged by director Marc Webb, a veteran of music videos) was proof that good things can come from music video-influenced films. It also violated the most important romcom trope: getting together at the end.

Thirst: Stylistically rigorous, this vampire tale is far, far from New Moon. Its scenes of sex and violence will have you wriggling in your seat in discomfort, but director Chan-wook Park (Oldboy) is truly a master at his craft, taking Asian horror to an artistic high, with a bit of a moralistic bent.

Up: Best thing about Up, #1: It makes you cry. Instead of adding double entendres for adult laughs, Pixar used the wide age range of its audience to make older viewers cry. The little kids next to me didn't get it, but I was wiping away tears underneath my 3D glasses. Best thing about Up, #2? It makes you laugh. The talking dogs were my most memorable chuckle of the year.

Bad Lieutenant: Port of Call New Orleans: I thought I was so sick of police procedurals, but Nicolas Cage brings the genre back with the baddest, most insane performance of the year. The seediness of New Orleans post-Hurricane Katrina is made absurd by director Werner Herzog's inclusion of iguana point-of-view shots and the depictions of off-the-cuff abuse of power and drugs. A strange, strange movie, in all the right ways.

Precious: Based on the Novel �Push' by Sapphire: A tearjerker with equal parts horror and heart. Precious' world is so foreign to most of us, but director Lee Daniels makes it even more of a nightmare with his use of dream sequences and subjective point-of-view. Mo'Nique put in a jaw-dropping performance, and her final monologue is a gutsy move made by Daniels that raises more questions than it answers.

Up in the Air: Yes, this is one that's on a lot of top ten lists, and its tone of comedy mixed with anomie comes straight from the Academy playbook. But it's good. My favorite sequence was when George Clooney, Vera Farmiga and Anna Kendrick form their unlikely trio, learning from each other and crashing a party.

Food, Inc.: A well-researched complement to Super Size Me and Fast Food Nation, this documentary covered the food industry from moo to mouth and back again. I spouted "Did you know�?" to friends and families for weeks based on what I learned about the food industry. It's already out on DVD, calling out to me for a second viewing.

Why stop at top ten when there are a few films that deserve honorable mentions, but didn't make it into my rather loose list. An Education: The debut of Carey Mulligan with a fantastic performance from Rosamund Pike. Pike's glamorous and perfectly assembled look made her as attractive to adult-pining Mulligan as Peter Sarsgaard. The Cove: Environmental activism meets Ocean's 11, so controversial it had a hard time playing in Japan. And they're feeding dolphins to your children! The Young Victoria: a decidedly unstuffy costume drama and romance that should make Emily Blunt a star.

Film Journal's Top Ten Films of 2008

By Sarah Sluis

2008 has come to a close, prompting critics to sort and rank the films they've seen over the year, both as a form of mental cleansing during those slow news days post-New Year's, as well as in preparation for awards season. The Village Voice offered its annual survey of dozens of reviewers, and NY Mag took it upon themselves to poll critics on their ten worst films. Stop Smiling, a Chicago-based arts and culture magazine, also posted a list of their favorite films. Now it's our turn.

Our Executive Editor, Kevin Lally, shared his list of top ten films of 2008 in January's magazine, so I've re-posted them online, along with (often prescient) excerpts from our critics' original review:

Wall-E: "a tale that's equally satisfying as science fiction, cautionary satire, gentle love story and purely visual comedy," "its first half hour of beeps and blips "[evoking] classic silent comedy, setting up innumerable clever sight gags and achieving surprising expressiveness within the physical limitations of their adorable mechanical lead." - Kevin Lally

The Class: "a work of jaw-dropping intelligence, humanity and the most subtle cinematic bravura." - David Noh (who also stated it was "probably the year's best film")

Slumdog Millionaire:"a bracingly energetic and original story of struggle,

survival, upward mobility and romantic yearning that should be [and turned out to be] a

major art-house crossover hit." - Kevin Lally

Man on Wire: "a stunning adventure and a study in the ultra-weird, as embodied by the driven hero" - Doris Toumarkine

4 Months, 3 Weeks and 2 Days: "a ragtag tour de force, a low-budget, high-drama independent marvel that reinvigorates cinma-vrit." - Rex Roberts

The Edge of Heaven: "takes several German and Turkish families and turns their stories into a mesmerizing philosophical meditation on cultural displacement, how history repeats itself, and the ways in which parents want the best for their children." - Lewis Beale

My Winnipeg: "Maddin delivers another unique, phantasmagorical, handcrafted spectacle that again confirms his place as one of independent film's wittiest, wildest and most singular talents." - Kevin Lally

Frost/Nixon: "one of the most breathtaking bits of acting you are likely to see this year" - Daniel Eagan

Be Kind Rewind: an"unusual, heartfelt valentine to community and creativity, a true movie for the YouTube era" - Kevin Lally

The Visitor: stars Richard Jenkins as a "depressed hero,...hardly the most upbeat of traveling companions. The bumpy road means that this cinematic trip may not generate the kind of word of mouth a film like this needs." (redeemed by its inclusion on this, and other,Top Ten lists) - Doris Toumarkine

The list includes three well-represented Golden Globes nominees (Frost/Nixon, Slumdog Millionaire, Wall-E), as well as probable nominee Man on Wire (the Globes no longer award documentaries). Be Kind Rewind hasn't been showing up on many lists, but the "Sweded" films were some of the most enjoyable comedic send-ups this year. Director Guy Maddin (My Winnipeg) remains a critical/cult favorite, not a crossover one. The Visitor has landed a spot on many Oscar projection lists, but 4 Months, 3 Weeks and 2 Days and The Edge of Heaven were voted out of the foreign-language bracket last year. The Class, France's Oscar submission, will likely receive an Oscar nod.

Risky Business blogger Steven Zeitchik commented yesterday on the need for a critic to balance mainstream/niche films on their Top Ten list in order to maintain street cred (my words, not his). "Too many blockbusters," he said, "make you look preening." If that's the case, let's notice the film appearing in many Top Tens that's left off this list--a little Batman movie, anyone?