'The Croods' kicks off school holiday while 'Spring Breakers' expands for the college set

The first major animated film to open this year, The Croods (4,046 theatres), could easily exceed the mid-$40 million figure Fox is predicting for the DreamWorks Animation production. A debut weekend in that range would put it in line with the March opening of DreamWorks Animation's How to Train Your Dragon. At the time, that opening for Dragon was seen as low, but it ended up grossing five times its opening weekend, or $217 million. That's an excellent multiple. In comparison, DWA's Megamind opened $3 million higher than Dragon but had a cumulative total that was $75 million lower. The difference here is partly one of quality: Dragon had a 98% critics rating to Megamind's 73% approval on Rotten Tomatoes. The Croods is currently falling below both of those numbers: just 61% of critics have come out in favor of the film. One of those is FJI's Kevin Lally, who lauded the "dazzling 3D style" and "lively vocal performances" of the leads. The concept of a
prehistoric family battling to survive feels novel enough, which could give the animated feature a boost. That plus the pent-up demand for a quality animated feature (the ratings are still higher than those for Escape from Planet Earth) and the release timed to kids' spring break could spell great box-office returns.

With an early 2013 glut of R-rated content geared towards adult males, Olympus Has Fallen (3,098 theatres) may be the latest to fall flat. However, the scope and budget of this "Die Hard in the White House" feature at least feels larger than its comparable predecessors. But then you read the reviews. Our Daniel Eagan was unimpressed with the "generic thriller marred by poor special effects." It also earns its R rating with "grim, ugly" and graphic depictions of violence. Gerard Butler, who leads as a Secret Service agent, hasn't been much of a draw for audiences lately (see: Playing for Keeps) and a lackluster opening could only confirm that
his star status is in jeopardy. At least this time, he'll have the help of Morgan Freeman playing House Speaker and acting President.

Tina Fey plays an uptight admissions officer in Admission (2,160 theatres),
a "bracingly smart, affecting romp" that critic David Noh thought was
"one of the best comedies in a while." Paul Rudd plays the leader of an
alternative school who's gunning to get one of his students into
Princeton. Focus is smartly limiting the release, and fewer auditoriums
should lead to a greater concentration of laughter. Still, this one will
open low, to around $10 million, and then will rely on word-of-mouth to
turn it into a quiet, Pitch Perfect-like hit.

Spring Breakers wowed last weekend with a stunning per-screen average. It expands to 1,104 theatres today, and the big question is if its success in specialty theatres in New York and Los Angeles will translate to success across the nation. Because of doubts about the movie's viability, sub-$10 million estimates have been circulating, but I think it could potentially go much, much higher. People drawn in by director Harmony Korine's auteur status will be sitting next to people who are just looking for American Pie-style debauchery.

Opening in just 4 theatres, The Sapphires offers a "familiar but supremely well-told and produced tale" about four Aboriginal young women who entertain the troops during the Vietnam War, assesses critic Doris Toumarkine. The socially aware feature about a group's rise of success, which I gave a shout-out to earlier this week, is a ripe offering for specialty-seeking audiences.

On Monday, we'll see which films were in the winners in a weekend crowded with a number of attractive offerings.