'Conjuring' will levitate over 'Turbo,' 'R.I.P.D.,' 'RED 2'

In this busy weekend, four new releases will attempt to woo audiences. Turbo (3,806 theatres) jump-started the weekend by opening on Wednesday, earning $5.5 million. That's just an okay debut for the animated feature, which should earn another $25 million or so in the Friday to Sunday period. The "broad, cheerful cartoon" about a snail that wants nothing more than to be fast
"is more affable
than ambitious, which might make it less-than-essential viewing for
families suffering animation fatigue," predicts our critic Daniel Eagan. Despicable Me 2 and Monsters University have more marketing muscle and buzz behind them, and their Rotten Tomatoes averages are both over 10% higher than Turbo's current 66% Fresh rating. With its mid-July release, Turbo may be overshadowed by these early, strong animated offerings. Plus, Planes will offer even more competition in coming weeks in a very crowded summer for family films.

Sometimes, it's the low-budget movies that earn the most at the box office. That's likely to be the case with The Conjuring (2,903 theatres), which has TV ads that make the release look truly frightening. Supernatural horror movies have been doing particularly well at the box office, and this haunted house movie has yet another thing going for it: verisimilitude. Ads have shown interviews with adults who are supposedly speaking out about their experience for the first time in 30 years, and that original documentary spin will give it that extra boost that helped out Paranormal Activity and, of course, the original is-this-real horror film, The Blair Witch Project. This project, which likely cost just $15 million, should open at least twice at high.

On the other end of the spectrum, R.I.P.D. (2,852 theatres) may have cost upwards of $130 million, but it's been plagued by negative buzz, and its opening may be its grave: under $10 million. Eagan says the story of undead cops protecting the world from evil spirits isn't an "epic disaster," but that doesn't mean it's good either: it "strains to
duplicate the flair and chemistry that flowed so effortlessly from
the MIB franchise."

The cheerfully fun gang of aging spies is back in RED 2 (3,016 theatres). "With this sequel, more-is-more works—every over-the-top moment of
it," says our critic Michael Sauter. The original opened to $20 million, and the sequel should debut at least as high, and have strong subsequent weekends as the grey-topped crowd likely to turn out for this action feature doesn't rush to theatres opening weekend.

Besides four wide releases, there are two notable specialty features. Kristen Wiig stars in Girl Most Likely (353 theatres), but this comedy "shoulda been way funnier, given the talent involved," according to our critic David Noh. The feature will likely go as far as Wiig's name will take it. Ryan Gosling reteams with his Drive director Nicolas Winding Refn for Only God Forgives, but don't expect this movie to be an arthouse favorite. It has great music and visuals, but Gosling acts flatly, and there's no narrative to speak of. This indie drama will draw some interest and also fade out quickly.

On Monday, we'll chart the winners and losers in this busy, mid-summer weekend.