For the third week in a row, we feel compelled to frame our box-office speculations using the rhetoric of comparison. How will this weekend’s movies fare… in relation to Gravity? Does Carrie have what it takes to topple the thriller from its tall, tall pedestal? Or will Captain Phillips prove its real-life tenacity and inch ahead into the No. 1 slot? Perhaps Escape Plan will find unexpected power in the pull of nostalgia, and ride dark-horse success past Alfonso Cuaron’s 3D stunner? Will audiences line up for yet another man-against-the-odds survival tale, and help Robert Redford’s All is Lost reign supreme?
Can anyone out-gross Gravity?
Unlikely.
Pundits have predicted a $30 million haul for director Cuaron’s box-office king. As of Wednesday, the film had earned $204 million internationally. Some are speculating Gravity will hit the $300 million mark by weekend’s end.
Though backed by a strong marketing campaign (including this hilarious video), Carrie has received a chilly critical reception. The horror remake and Steven King adaptation is currently tracking 47% rotten on Rotten Tomatoes. Opinions on the movie’s likely success – or failure – are mixed: Some see the film earning a figure that falls somewhere in the mid-teens, others the low 20s, and a few optimists (they just want to see the Gravity tyrant tumble!) are predicting Carrie could pull in as much as $30 million.
In its second weekend out of the gate, Captain Phillips will most likely land somewhere in the high teens, suffering from a less-than-catastrophic drop of just 25% (Gravity dipped 23% its sophomore weekend). Tom Hanks’ enjoyable tale of human fortitude had, as of October 16, earned $34 million.
Robert Redford is looking to give Hanks a run for his considerable money with his own Oscar-bait vehicle, All is Lost, opening tonight. While the suspense feature isn’t expected to match Phillips’ gross, Redford’s turn as a lone yachter lost at sea has fellow Best Actor nominee scrawled all over it.
Speaking of leading men with more than their fair share of talent, Benedict Cumberbatch may be one of the industry’s hottest up-and-coming stars to land increasingly serious, high-brow roles, but his The Fifth Estate is unlikely to add to his caché. A biopic/thriller about Julian Assange and his WikiLeaks, Estate has been called (by our critic, Daniel Eagan) “trumped-up Hollywood hokum.” Audiences are expected to react accordingly – by staying away. Most likely, The Fifth Estate will clock in around $5 come Monday morning.
Opening in limited release to much buzz among specialty circles/Fassbender cults, 12 Years A Slave (also co-starring Cumberbatch) is expected to do great art-house business: around $30,000 per location. Nineteen theaters will play the slavery feature, which, though difficult to watch, is reportedly yet another artistic achievement for director Steve McQueen, whose slim albeit impressive oeuvre includes Hunger and Shame.
Is there a graceful way to transition from the realities of our brutal national history to… Stallone? Nonetheless, the Rocky writer and sexagenarian action star also has a new film opening this weekend, co-starring fellow golden oldie, Arnold Schwarzenegger, in which the two plot their escape from a maximum-security prison. To small surprise, Eagan called Escape Plan “a guilty pleasure,” or rather, “the movie equivalent of junk food.” Odds are, Plan will pull in around $10 million.
In sum: It’s still very much Gravity’s game.
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