Latest 'Jackass' looks to unseat 'Gravity'

Jackass spinoff Bad Grandpa may finally have the popular heft to unseat Gravity this weekend, bringing the latter’s nearly month-long reign over the box office to a worthy end. It’s been quite a run for Alfonso Cuaron and co.: Gravity has earned $177 million domestically and close to $300 million worldwide. Business this weekend is expected to remain steady, if no longer stellar. Pundits predict a haul in the mid $20 million range, which would amount to a 25% downturn in sales.

Bad Grandpa, on the other hand, is reportedly on track to double its production value. The Borat-style comedy, in which Johnny Knoxville plays the titular geriatric pervert on an eventful roadtrip with his chip-off-the-ole’-block troublemaker grandson, was produced for approximately $15 million. Odds are the Jackass faithful will help carry the film to a $30 million opening weekend. As respectable a figure as that may sound, however, it nonetheless pales in comparison with the franchise’s last debut. Jackass: 3D , released in 2010, was buoyed by expensive 3D sales to earn a whopping $50 million its first weekend out of the gate (or should we say pen?).

Ridley Scott/Cormac McCarthy collaboration The Counselor, also bowing tonight, certainly has a fancier pedigree to its name, but the critical drubbing it’s received will most likely undercut its ability to perform, and certainly compete with wide-appeal Grandpa. Our Rex Roberts didn’t completely pan the film that attracted the likes of megawatt stars Brad Pitt, Michael Fassbender, Javier Bardem, Penelope Cruz, and Cameron Diaz, but neither did he place himself in the minority of lauders. “The Counselor isn’t a bad movie,” he wrote, “just a bombastic one.” Audiences aren’t expected to bang down the doors in their haste to view this exhibition of hubris (on multiple levels). Fox believes the movie will earn between $8 and $10 million.

On the other end of the critical spectrum, French film and Cannes Palme d’Or winner Blue Is the Warmest Color may reap the benefits of universal praise and a healthy dose of salacious controversy. Not only does the three-hour drama about a young woman and her intense relationship with a female artist carry with it an NC-17 rating, but the film’s two leading ladies and their director have been engaged in a very public media battle over who was or was not exploited during the movie’s graphic lesbian sex scenes. The most recent installment of the he-said she-said argument/publicity gambit took the form of an open letter by director Abdellatif Kechiche, in which he charged actress Lea Seydoux with making “opportunistic calculations.” It all seems a bit juvenile for such high-brow fare, but let’s see if the nonsense helps move tickets. Blue Is the Warmest Color opens in just four theaters tonight.

12 Years A Slave expands considerably this weekend, playing in 123 theaters. After it over-performed at 19 locations last weekend the historical drama is expected to only gain momentum. Its recent Gotham Award nominations probably won’t hurt its earning potential, either.

High hopes for 'Carrie' still fall short of 'Gravity'

For the third week in a row, we feel compelled to frame our box-office speculations using the rhetoric of comparison. How will this weekend’s movies fare… in relation to Gravity? Does Carrie have what it takes to topple the thriller from its tall, tall pedestal? Or will Captain Phillips prove its real-life tenacity and inch ahead into the No. 1 slot? Perhaps Escape Plan will find unexpected power in the pull of nostalgia, and ride dark-horse success past Alfonso Cuaron’s 3D stunner? Will audiences line up for yet another man-against-the-odds survival tale, and help Robert Redford’s All is Lost reign supreme?

Can anyone out-gross Gravity?

Unlikely.

Pundits have predicted a $30 million haul for director Cuaron’s box-office king. As of Wednesday, the film had earned $204 million internationally. Some are speculating Gravity will hit the $300 million mark by weekend’s end.

Though backed by a strong marketing campaign (including this hilarious video), Carrie has received a chilly critical reception. The horror remake and Steven King adaptation is currently tracking 47% rotten on Rotten Tomatoes.  Opinions on the movie’s likely success – or failure – are mixed: Some see the film earning a figure that falls somewhere in the mid-teens, others the low 20s, and a few optimists (they just want to see the Gravity tyrant tumble!) are predicting Carrie could pull in as much as $30 million.

In its second weekend out of the gate, Captain Phillips will most likely land somewhere in the high teens, suffering from a less-than-catastrophic drop of just 25% (Gravity dipped 23% its sophomore weekend). Tom Hanks’ enjoyable tale of human fortitude had, as of October 16, earned $34 million.

Robert Redford is looking to give Hanks a run for his considerable money with his own Oscar-bait vehicle, All is Lost, opening tonight. While the suspense feature isn’t expected to match Phillips’ gross, Redford’s turn as a lone yachter lost at sea has fellow Best Actor nominee scrawled all over it. 

Speaking of leading men with more than their fair share of talent, Benedict Cumberbatch may be one of the industry’s hottest up-and-coming stars to land increasingly serious, high-brow roles, but his The Fifth Estate is unlikely to add to his caché. A biopic/thriller about Julian Assange and his WikiLeaks, Estate has been called (by our critic, Daniel Eagan) “trumped-up Hollywood hokum.” Audiences are expected to react accordingly – by staying away.  Most likely, The Fifth Estate will clock in around $5 come Monday morning.

Opening in limited release to much buzz among specialty circles/Fassbender cults, 12 Years A Slave (also co-starring Cumberbatch) is expected to do great art-house business: around $30,000 per location. Nineteen theaters will play the slavery feature, which, though difficult to watch, is reportedly yet another artistic achievement for director Steve McQueen, whose slim albeit impressive oeuvre includes Hunger and Shame.


Is there a graceful way to transition from the realities of our brutal national history to… Stallone? Nonetheless, the Rocky writer and sexagenarian action star also has a new film opening this weekend, co-starring fellow golden oldie, Arnold Schwarzenegger, in which the two plot their escape from a maximum-security prison. To small surprise, Eagan called Escape Plan “a guilty pleasure,” or rather, “the movie equivalent of junk food.” Odds are, Plan will pull in around $10 million.

In sum: It’s still very much Gravity’s game.