'The Lucky One' and 'Think Like a Man' vie for date-night audiences

Best-selling author Nicholas Sparks has a solid track record at the movie box office, and it should remain unsullied by the release of The Lucky One (3,155 theatres). Starring Zac Efron as a former ex-soldier and the newbie Taylor Schiller as the object of his affection, the romance is "good-looking but hollow," according to our critic Daniel Eagan. The "smoothly entertaining but easily forgettable" love story sounds like just the kind of undemanding film suitable for a girls' night out or date night. The PG rating and presence of former tween star Efron should draw in younger audiences in particular. Experts predict an opening north of $20 million.

Although it's opening in only two-thirds of the locations of The Lucky One, Think Like a Man (2,015 theatres) could be the underdog that makes big. The "astute, contemporary romantic comedy," as described by THR's Michael Rechtshaffen, has been picking up steam. It may earn in the mid-twenty millions, surpassing the military romance many have seen as the front-runner. Based on Steve Harvey's book Act Like a Lady, Think Like a Man, the comedy follows in the footsteps of other advice books-turned-movies, like He's Just Not That Into You. With a primarily black cast, the comedy should do particularly well among the same demographic, which is known for turning out on opening weekend. That could bring the release to the top spot.

A couple of films this week are taking advantage of holidays, both official and unofficial. Chimpanzee (1,563 theatres) is a Disneynature release timed to Earth Day, which is this Sunday. The first of the four Earth Day films, 2009's Oceans, opened to $8 million and earned four times that in total. Last year's African Cats opened to just $6 million and finished with just double that figure. Apes are more personable and relatable than cats, so Chimpanzee could end up doing slightly better than last year's offering. The nature docs are designed to tell family stories that appeal to kids, so "anthropomorphism can get heavy-handed, [and] the family values of teamwork and loyalty sometimes overstated," according to critic Marsha McCreadie. Parents may prefer "Planet Earth," but their kids will probably adore the Disneynature version.

Today is also 4/20, the celebrated stoner holiday, so what better day to release Marley (45 theatres), a documentary about the famous reggae musician Bob Marley, who also liked to partake in Jamaica's intoxicating crop. McCreadie calls it a "benchmark" and "must-see," even though she also harbors some reservations, noting that at the end of the long movie, "you are in the paradoxical position of wanting less movie, more Marley." The Magnolia release will open day-and-date with Facebook, so the industry will be watching to see the impact that has on the doc's theatrical release.

 On Monday, we'll see if The Lucky One or Think Like a Man clinched the top spot, and if the topical Earth Day and 4/20 releases attracted their respective audiences.

Bob Marley doc 'Marley' will release day-and-date on Facebook

Don't expect a film from a major studio to release day-and-date theatrically and on-demand anytime soon. The theatrical window has strong forces protecting it, and too many people are worried that change will drive people away from theatres forever. However, small distributors, who often screen their films in independent theatres, have been pursuing day-and-date VOD releases for a few years now. IFC, particularly, has aggressively pursued the on-demand strategy. Considering the distributor also owns theatres, it can't be all bad for the exhibition side of its business.

So it makes sense that the Magnolia release Marley, a documentary about the reggae musician  Bob Marley, will be the first to be available for day-and-date rental on Facebook. Posters of the famous reggae musician are standard-issue in college dorms, and Facebook has a hold on the youth audience. College students are also less likely to have televisions, and be more open to streaming the film on their computer. Additionally, I bet there a few people who'd like to watch the documentary at home while imbibing in the substance for which the musician is famous--and brag about it on Facebook later. The Facebook rentals will be $6.99, compared to about $12 each for a movie ticket. For those that want to watch the movie on their television, on-demand will be an option too.

Ironically, even though such simultaneous releases shatter the theatrical window, they also profit from it. People won't pay $6.99 to rent a movie once it's on DVD, but they will pay that much to see a movie that's "only in theatres." Couldn't this system just fall apart if too many movies become available concurrently with their release? Simultaneous release can and will be destructive to the traditional theatrical model. Theatres provide something tangible--a big screen, comfy seats, a communal experience--in addition to the intangible. By seeing a movie "first," you get to be the one to talk about it to your friends first, and you won't be left out of the conversation. You also don't have to delay gratification--you can enjoy a "must-see" film right away. On-demand releases charge more because of the intangibles, not the tangibles. You can even add another intangible, "convenience," to the list as well, since parents of young children or people who live far away from movie theatres would get more value out of the experience. Simultaneous releases will only get more popular and continue to evolve. Will they be symbiotic with the theatrical model, or will they devour it?