Could 'The Help' be this summer's second female-driven hit?

By Sarah Sluis

This summer began with an R-rated un-rom com, Bridesmaids, which opened softly but has since earned over six times its opening weekend. The highly anticipated adaptation of the novel The Help releases today, which I predict will soon have membership to the $100 million club. According to a Variety article published today, the studio held over 300 advance screenings of the movie that targeted black and faith-based audiences, as well as some library crowds. I took a look at some of The Help's comparable films to try to figure out the movie's prospects, which are currently looking quite bright.

Eat Pray Love (2010)
Opening weekend: $23 million. Domestic Total: $80 million.
Unlike The Help, Eat Pray Love was hampered by poor reviews. Just 46% of audiences liked the movie, according to Rotten Tomatoes, compared to 89% of audiences who have previewed The Help. Like The Help, Eat Pray Love was based on a bestseller popular in book clubs, but interest stopped at older white women. Many people dismissed the movie as covering "white girl problems," and the midlife crisis impetus for the woman's journeys alienated younger viewers. Prediction: The Help will blow this release out of the water.

Julie & Julia (2009)
Opening weekend: $20 million. Domestic Total: $94 million.
Another movie based on a popular book, Julie & Julia had much better reviews. It opened lower than Eat Pray Love, but audiences kept coming, giving the movie a higher finish. The casting of Meryl Streep, who was nominated for an Oscar, was also a boon. Prediction: The Help will do at least as well, in part because it also appeals to faith-based and black audiences.

Bridesmaids (2011)
Opening weekend: $26 million. Domestic Total (so far): $166 million.
Plenty of people who loved reading The Help would not be caught dead watching this R-rated comedy. However, it's worth noting that even with a lot of marketing and media exposure, this comedy only opened to $26 million. If The Help opens low, its performance the second and third weeks will spell whether the drama is a success or not. Prediction: Tough competition, but I think The Help has a chance of matching Bridesmaids.

The Blind Side (2009)
Opening weekend: $34 million Domestic Total: $255 million.
Comparison between The Blind Side and The Help may be the most valuable. They both share similar plotlines, about white people helping black people. Faith-based audiences responded particularly well to the Sandra Bullock drama, which is a bit more Christian than The Help, in my opinion. However, I don't know how popular The Blind Side was with black audiences. A movie like The Help will have much more resonance with black audiences than Blind Side, whose black character was mostly mute and unexplored as a person. In contrast, Viola Davis and Octavia Spencer have been giving tons of interviews and many people will come to the movie to see them. The sports theme of The Blind Side was an automatic draw for male audiences, who may be less enthusiastic about The Help. Prediction: Unless The Help ends up in the Best Picture category like The Blind Side, I think The Help will come in underThe Blind Side's total.

A final thought. If Disney/DreamWorks has been successful in marketing The Help to black audiences, the movie's opening weekend could be much bigger than most female-driven adaptations of "book club" novels. Tyler Perry's Madea movies routinely earn half their total haul the first weekend, when middle-aged black women turn out in force to see these movies.

First-day estimates of The Help should post tomorrow. Currently, 31% of advance ticket sales on Fandango are for the movie.

'Edge of Darkness' challenges 'Avatar'

By Sarah Sluis

This week's new releases have set up shop in diagonal demographic quadrants: older men (Edge of Darkness) and younger women (When in Rome). Edge of Darkness has the best chance of unseating Avatar, which is still bringing in its millions at an impressive clip. A 20% drop for Avatar will still put the movie at $28 million for the weekend. Unless Edge of Darkness can divert a significant portion of the audience, Avatar will remain on top, though it's likely that Darkness will win Friday before dropping through the rest of the weekend, just like The Book of Eli two weeks ago.

A "well-made genre-blender by professionals who know how to coax tears, deliver thrills," according to our critic Rex Roberts, Edge of Darkness (3,066 theatres) offers a familiar filmgoing experience that will appeal to Mel Gibson fans in particular. The theme of a kidnapped daughter worked particularly well with Liam Neeson's Taken, which released exactly a year ago. Will Darkness be able to beat Taken's $24 million opening weekend?

Romantic comedy When in Rome (2,456) falls on the low end of the struggling genre. It will probably appeal most those teenage girls who haven't fully grasped the genre's conventions yet. In my review, I noted that its brisk pace keeps the audience from dwelling on the movie's considerable faults, "[whisking] us through the conventions of romantic comedies so quickly there's barely time to groan." The movie will probably open in the single digits or low teens and drop quickly out of the top ten (e.g. Leap Year).

On the specialty front, Saint John of Las Vegas will release in one theatre as part of a new strategy by distributor IndieVest. Wealthy people invest in the film with the side benefit of parties and Hollywood glamour. The movie raised over $10 million, more than it needed, so at least the investors will get some of their money back, given its 5% Rotten Tomatoes rating. That seems to nix its chance at being a cult favorite.

On Monday we'll see if Edge of Darkness was able to pull a coup on reigning champion Avatar, and if When in Rome and Saint John of Las Vegas were able to draw in audiences for their opening wekened.

Adult family dramas take center stage with 'Brothers,' 'Everybody's Fine'

By Sarah Sluis

Despite all the new offerings this weekend, New Moon and The Blind Side are expected to hold the top spots. But that doesn't mean the rest of the films won't fight for their spots as we head into the competitive holiday season.

Brothers (2,088 theatres), a love triangle with a wartime focus, is poised to capture a younger version of The Blind Side's audience. It's showing strong interest among young females under 25 that idolize stars Natalie Portman, Jake Gyllenhaal and Tobey Maguire. The war angle may help draw in their male companions, just as The Blind Side shared its tale of compassion with a male-friendly sports angle.

Everybody's Fine (2,133 theatres) is a quiet film that needs to make some noise. However, with its distributor, Miramax, crumbling back into Disney, and a Robert DeNiro considerably calmer than his gruff Meet the Parents persona, this movie is Most Likely to Get Lost in a Crowd. Still, this movie presents its offerings quite well, despite being "dramatically a bit thin," according to Executive Editor Kevin Lally.

Up in the Air won Best Picture from the National Board of Review yesterday, an auspicious way to start its run in ten theatres. George Clooney plays a jet-setting corporate downsizer (he fires other people's employees for a living) but somehow director Jason Reitman manages to make this plotline fit into our current recession economy. Not since Jerry Maguire waved to his ex while on a moving walkway has the mix of blas glamour and isolation in airport travel been captured so well.

Rounding out the week's releases are the standard action and horror offerings. Armored (1,915 theatres) is about the ultimate inside job: the drivers of armored trucks helping themselves to the stacks of money in cargo. Transylmania (1,005 theatres) is a horror spoof that should appeal to a younger crowd. Unlike the more gruesome Hostel, this movie is about a group of students spending a semester abroad who discover their university is infested with vampires.

On Monday, we'll check back to see if Up in the Air's box office is as winning as its Best Picture award, if Everybody's Fine was able to raise itself above a whisper, and if Brothers can stand up to The Blind Side.

Tis the (early) season for 'A Christmas Carol'

By Sarah Sluis

Despite opening nearly two months before the holiday, A Christmas Carol will roll out in 3,683 theatres, including 2,050 3D screens, 141 of which are IMAX. The movie is expected to earn in the $25-$35 million range. As the holiday season approaches, it should pick up even more business, though it will lose 3D screens once Avatar releases on December 18th. Our critic and executive editor Kevin Lally called the movie "Dickens for the ADD

generation," noting "[director Robert] Zemeckis' penchant

for rollercoaster-like 3D action" seems tailored for a "videogame-nurtured audience." To each generation, their own. (I count myself among the Mickey's Christmas Carol generation)

Two horror-thriller-sci-fi movies will battle at the box office this weekend: The Box (2,635 theatres) and The Fourth Kind (2,529 theatres). Neither has accumulated much acclaim. In an effort to punch up The Box, which was originally a short story about a simple choice ("If you open this box, you will receive $1 million and someone will die"), director Richard Kelly created a convoluted plot that "winds its way through suspense, psychological thriller, science fiction, conspiracy theory and horror genres with an overlay of Christian religious motifs and a dab of existentialism." Wow. The Fourth Kind follows Paranormal Activity by purporting to show real events--case studies of people who were abducted by aliens. The trailer is pretty frightening, but critic Michael Rechtshaffen found "the gimmick proves more distracting than disturbing."

The Men Who Stare at Goats (2,443 theatres) is a light war romp about a reporter who discovers the U.S. Government sponsored a unit to try to investigate the use of psychic powers for combat. Unfortunately, the movie includes one scene where a soldier is given LSD and starts firing shots into a crowded military courtyard, only to put the gun in his mouth to kill himself. Because of yesterday's military shooting, audiences may not be able to flip back to comedy so soon after seeing such an eerily similar event. However, the older-skewing satire is expected to play well for several weeks in an open field for comedies, so this should not be the death knell for the movie, especially given George Clooney's spot-on performance.

Budding awards favorite, Precious: Based on the Novel 'Push' by Sapphire, is opening in 18 theatres. While most specialty films will open in a mix of multiplexes and arthouses, Precious is debuting in multiplexes and theatres in primarily African- American neighborhoods. In New York, it's playing in Harlem. In Los Angeles, it's playing in Crenshaw. The movie has already drawn a wave of controversy, with many critical of reviews and cries of racism being thrown around. Not only is the movie powerful and violent, but it opens up a dialogue about race that incites incredible emotion. With its disenfranchised child in the lead and the resulting social critique (including that of exploitation), this movie is the Slumdog Millionaire of '09. Just don't presume it ends up with Precious winning a million dollars.

Audiences return for second helpings of 'Meatballs'

By Sarah Sluis

With only a small decrease in demand, Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs came in at #1 for the second week in a row. It dropped just 18.8%, an unheard-of amount, to bring in another $24.6 million. Because it's the only family film in the marketplace right now, and comes with the added boost of 3D

and IMAX locations, this movie's release benefited from a perfectly clear forecast.

Bruce Willis futuristic film Surrogates opened at #2 with $15 million in ticket sales. It's half the amount of last year's fantasy-action movie Eagle Eye, which opened on the same weekend last year. Given Surrogates' $80 million budget, this opening is a disappointment.

Scrubbed for tweens, Fame brought in $10 million and the second-runner-up spot. The double digit opening is about half the movie's production costs, which should satisfy MGM's expectations.

Sci-fi/horror movie Pandorum, "endlessly derivative of films such as Alien, Event Horizon, Pitch Black and countless others," opened at $4.4 million. Apparently, space mutants don't sell themselves the way they used to.

Among the rest of the returning films, The Informant! fared best, dropping a light 33% to bring in $6.9 million. Strong second-week returns were expected given the film's older audience.

On the specialty circuit, Coco Before Chanel and Capitalism: A Love Story both made big waves at the box office.

Coco Before Chanel, which stars charming Audrey Tautou, has already earned $24.8 million at the foreign box office, and brought in $35,400 at each of its five locations, a per-location average that speaks well to the film's future.

Michael Moore's Capitalim: A Love Story brought in $60,000 per location at each of its four locations,

giving it the highest per-screen average of the year--though it appears it was running on more than one screen at those theatres, at least in New York City. While the opening seems stellar, it's difficult to compare the debut to other Michael Moore films, all of which had different specialty-to-wide release patterns: Fahrenheit 9/11 opened wide on a Friday after a two-location debut on Wednesday. Though its per-screen averages were lower, Capitalism could still fall short of Fahrenheit's $119 million total gross. Moore's more recent film, Sicko, opened on one screen on a Friday its first weekend, giving it a $68,000 per-screen average by limiting supply--showing how easily per-screen averages can be deceiving.

Along with Capitalism: A Love Story, Ricky Gervais/Jennifer Garner comedy Invention of Lying will open wide this Friday, keeping company with teen roller derby movie Whip It!, and a double feature re-release of Toy Story and Toy Story 2 in 3D.

'The Final Destination' wins another week

By Sarah Sluis

Labor Day weekend proved to be another quiet one at the American box office, as kids headed back to school and lucky people motored out for one last weekend getaway. Since no studio wanted to release a winner on this dead weekend, the number one and two films were holdovers from last week. The grosses from 3D venues pushed The Final Destination to the top with $12.3 million from Friday to Sunday, despite a new offering for males, Gamer. The Gerard Butler sci-fi action movie opened at number four, with a $9.1 million weekend gross.

With no appealing new films at the box office, the second spot went to Inglorious Basterds, now in its third week. The Quentin Tarantino-directed movie added 193 locations and another $11.6 million to its gross, which should cross the $100 million mark next week.

All About Steve, the Sandra Bullock movie that received a unilateral pan, still drummed up $11.2 million in business. Those that saw the film, which I confirmed through a Twitter check, had nothing to say to their friends except "Don't see this!"

Lower down on the list, Extract grabbed the number nine spot with $4.3 million. Better than Idiocracy, and worse than Office Space, the comedy will probably make a bigger impact on DVD than in theatres, where people are more forgiving of a middling quality.

With few new offerings, the rest of the top ten held on to their audiences. District 9 crossed the $100 million mark and brought in $7.1 million. Julie & Julia, which didn't open strong, has turned into a long-tail success story. This week it dropped a slight 24%, the smallest drop in the top ten. If movies drop 50% each week, they will do 85% of their business in the first three weeks, which is considered the industry standard. Going below that number usually indicates a quality film and positive word-of-mouth: The Hangover, for example, only did 55% of its business in the first three weeks. Julie & Julia will likely approach (but not meet) that number. The first three weeks now count for only 73% of the movie's total five-week gross, a number that can only go down, since there are several weeks left in the film's run. With so much attention given to first week grosses, it's worth remembering that movies that appeal to certain demographics, such as older or female audiences, can only be judged a few weeks into their run. (500) Days of Summer, for example, has been hanging out just below the top ten for most of the summer, where it's earned $28.4 million to date.

This Wednesday, dark animated film 9 will open. On Friday, it will be joined by Tyler Perry's I Can Do Bad All By Myself, along with sexy-horror flick Sorority Row and Antarctica-set chiller Whiteout.

'Taken' scores on Super Bowl weekend box office

By Sarah Sluis

As I mentioned on Friday, studios have avoided releasing male-oriented films on Super Bowl Weekend,

wary of the inevitable spike downward on Sunday, when people everywhere huddle around the television to eat guacamole and chicken wings, and/or watch the game. Fox chanced that kidnapping thriller Taken would be able to grab enough viewers Friday and Saturday to make up for a precipitous drop on Sunday. They were right. Taken dropped 69% on Sunday, but still managed to make $24.6 million and finish the weekend at number one.

To put the numbers in perspective, most films drop 25-40% on Sunday (a number in the mid-30's is about average). What Fox must have noticed, though, is that even non-male oriented titles drop on Super Bowl Sunday. New in Town, for example, a female-skewing romantic comedy, dropped 61% on Sunday--only eight percent less than Taken. Clearly, the Super Bowl is not the provenance of males alone, but inspires households to watch together, male and female alike.

Paul Blart: Mall Cop, like Taken, exceeded the studio's box office expectations. The surprise success continued to rally above-average audiences. The film came in at number two again, earning $14 million. Its three-week total of $83 million assures that it will cross the $100 million mark in a few more weeks.

Horror flick The Uninvited debuted at number three to $10.5 million, exceeding the results of fellow wide release opener New in Town, a romantic comedy that posed a challenge to marketers over at Lionsgate, and received a mention in a recent New Yorker article on film marketing. Making a slim $6.7 million, it apparently came in according to the studio's (low) expectations.

Oscar shut-out Gran Torino has received a different kind of award: box-office success. The film has already passed the $100 million mark, and pulled in another $8.6 million this week. Eastwood was honored with the Irving G. Thalberg award fourteen years ago--and, like many of those honored, has continued an outpouring of solid, high-quality work.

Slumdog Millionaire, still buzzing twelve weeks after it opened, expanded its release yet again, earning $7.6 million and bringing its cumulative to $67.2 million. Director Danny Boyle won the DGA award this weekend. The award almost always results in a win for Best Director at the Oscars, so Slumdog, while garnering far fewer nominations than Ben Button, has a stronger chance of winning its categories.

Next week brings deliciously creepy stop-motion Coraline, romcom He's Just Not That Into You, Pink Panther 2, and Push. Summit's Push stars Dakota Fanning, meaning the young actress, who also voices the titular role in Coraline, will have two films debut the same week.

Full studio estimates here.