'Identity Thief' may rise to the top as 'Snitch' and 'Dark Skies' provide weak competition

In the doldrums of late February, two new releases will hit theatres this weekend, Snitch and Dark Skies. But neither of those should go far over $10 million, making it likely a holdover like Identity Thief will return to the number one spot. This Sunday is the Oscars, so nominated films should also see a boost in ticket sales. Next week, the impact from the winners should be even higher.

Dwayne Johnson (The Rock) stars in Snitch (2,511 theatres) as a father who goes undercover to save his son from imprisonment. Critic Daniel Eagan describes the action film as unusually socially
conscious, "[dealing] honestly with issues like peer pressure, prison
rape, broken families, limited opportunities for ex-cons—to say
nothing of the alarming statistics several characters deliver about
mandatory sentencing." That focus on the "human cost" makes this less of the mindless entertainment that fans may expect, which could potentially hurt the action offering's ratings in exit polls and word-of-mouth.

The thriller Dark Skies (2,313 theatres) will round out the new offerings this weekend. Marketing has focused on the fact that this comes from the producers of Paranormal Activity and Insidious. The trickling of reviews that have come in so far indicate that this alien abduction story doesn't have a lot going for it, so it may open
to $10 million or so and then blow out quickly.

The Hispanic box office is much-coveted piece of the theatrical pie these days. Bless Me Ultima, an adaptation of a 1972 coming-of-age novel that has become a touchstone of Chicano literature, will have a small release in 263 theatres. That could be enough to bring the movie over $1 million if it targets theatres that usually do well with Hispanic-leaning fare.

The current top twenty includes seven of the nine Best Picture Oscar nominees: Silver Linings Playbook (5th), Zero Dark Thirty (10th), Life of Pi (12th), Argo (13th), Lincoln (15th), Django Unchained (16th), and Les Miserables (17th). These movies should continue to play strongly this week and for a month or so after the Oscars. This is one good year, where great movies are racking up great returns from the box office.

On Monday, we'll evaluate the box office and weigh in on the results of Sunday night's Oscars.

'The Avengers' aims for a record opening weekend

There's no question The Avengers (4,349 theatres) will do well this weekend. The super-superhero movie brings together the all-stars of comic books: Iron Man, Captain America, The Hulk, Black Widow, Thor, and Hawkeye. Most importantly, the tentpole has already earned $281 million overseas, where it released last week. The U.S. is no longer the first market when it comes to mega-budget movies, but stateside it hasn't done much to lessen the anticipation or make audiences feel cheated. In fact, the atmosphere online indicates people are more excited to see the Joss Whedon-directed film.

Critics are often tougher to satisfy than audiences, so FJI's Frank Lovece's proclamation that "The Avengers is everything you could want in a superhero movie" indicates the picture really delivers. He praises the "larger-than-life feats" that are "believably and meaningfully executed," as well as the emotional explorations, like "the loneliness of being different," that add depth to the story. Releasing in well-done 3D, along with IMAX, the action picture could earn at least $150 million this weekend.

The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel (27 theatres) has also released overseas already, where it has earned over $70 million. The British film centers on U.K. retirees who end up in not-quite- what-expected retirement lodgings in India. FJI critic Shirley Sealy praised the talented cast who give the film its "charm and considerable zest for life."

Also on the menu in selected theatres this week is First Position (5 theatres), a "truly exhilarating" documentary about a ballet competition for young dancers, according to Doris Toumarkine. Kate Hudson does her free-spirited leading lady bit in A Little Bit of Heaven (11 theatres), a "tone-deaf dramedy" about her character's search to find love after a grim cancer diagnosis, as described by THR's Frank Scheck. Finally, the exact opposite of a Catholic's vision of The Perfect Family (5 theatres) is on display in the Kathleen Turner starrer. The comedy features her character trying to win "Catholic Woman of the Year"  in spite of her lesbian daughter, philandering son, and alcoholic husband.

On Monday, we'll see if The Avengers breaks the opening weekend record of $169.2 million, set by Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part II.

'John Carter' faces uphill battle against 'The Lorax'

Disney may have a flop on its hands. John Carter (3,749 theatres, including 3D and IMAX screens), is a "big-budget adaptation [that] delivers epic scale and effects" but has some major flaws, according to FJI critic Daniel Eagan. "Too reminiscent of previous films to impress older viewers, and too lightweight to dazzle fantasy fans," the CG/live-action mix is on par to deliver $30 million this weekend, when $50 million would be more likely to help Disney recoup its reported $250 million budget. Many have faulted Disney's marketing campaign. One, the title originally was more revealing, John Carter of Mars, but was reportedly shortened after Mars Needs Moms bombed. I was confused by a giant billboard that only showed the CG alien. Was this a CG movie? The coolest part for me is that the movie centers on a Civil War soldier who's transported to Mars, yet I've seen no antiquated military garb or battles in the trailer. There's a strong possibility that The Lorax may beat John Carter this weekend. John Carter is exactly the kind of movie that does well overseas, but audiences at home may give this film a pass.

If you're interested in time travel, check out A Thousand Words (1,890 theatres). The Eddie Murphy movie has been shelved for the past four years. Murphy plays a man who finds out he only has a thousand words left to speak. High concept, and most likely low on anything else. This would-be family comedy should earn somewhere slightly north of $5 million.

Indie darling Elizabeth Olsen stars in Silent House (2,124 theatres), a haunted house movie with the "gimmick" of being filmed in one continuous take. Our critic Maitland McDonagh panned the "derivative thriller." In particular, the "big twist" will be evident to horror fans "long before it arrives."

Friends with Kids (374 theatres) is rather "studied and forced" compared to Bridesmaids. The two comedies share a number of cast numbers, but unfortunately the "funny lines" are accompanied by an "awful lot of unoriginal, would-be side-splitters," according to critic David Noh. Many are expecting the comedy, which centers on two friends who decide to raise a child together, to be popular among the date-night crowd.

Salmon Fishing in the Yemen (18 theatres) starts out as an "appealing" romantic comedy before changing "midstream."  According to critic Kevin Lally, it's a "promising replica of the golden era of screen comedy that becomes mired in increasingly unwelcome narrative muck," a real "missed opportunity." Still, CBS Films hopes positive word-of-mouth will give momentum to their planned platform release.

Anyone who identifies as a "foodie" should check out Jiro Dreams of Sushi. The documentary about a famous Japanese sushi chef is the "Planet Earth" of sushi, and it will also make you feel more thoughtful about what you consume, though the chef's philosophy far predates the local, slow-food movement.

On Monday, we'll see if John Carter will be sunk by its high budget or if overseas returns keep it afloat.

'Puss in Boots' prepares to conquer box office

By Sarah Sluis

Paramount pushed the release of Puss in Boots (3,952 theatres) forward one week, making the CG-animated feature the first so-called "holiday" movie poised to take advantage of mounting ticket sales around Thanksgiving. Though the Shrek spin-off may post lower returns opening weekend because many kids will be celebrating Halloween in advance of the Monday holiday, prognosticators believe the movie should earn $35-39 million, with a decent chance of topping $40 million. 72% of the screens will be in 3D, apparently with good reason. In Todd McCarthy's THR review, he "enthusiastically recommended" a 3D viewing, noting that "the filmmakers have diligently applied themselves to conceiving the shots...[to] make use of 3D as a constructive tool and not just a gimmick."

Coming off its $54 million opening last week, Paranormal Activity 3 should continue to hold strong and grab the number two spot, especially as people celebrate the spooky holiday with a spine-tingling thrill ride.

The sci-fi actioner In Time (3,122 theatres) is tracking to open slightly above $10 million. Only 35% of Rotten Tomatoes critics gave positive ratings, but they may hold less sway among the under 25s who are showing the most interest in seeing the movie, which stars Justin Timberlake and Amanda Seyfried as people living in a world where no one ages after they turn twenty-five, allowing those with money to live forever.

Fans of Hunter S. Thompson, especially college students, should turn out in force for The Rum Diary (2,272 theatres), which stars Johnny Depp. The rollicking drama, which was delayed for some time, should earn slightly over or under the $10 million mark. David Noh praised the "glamour, wit and surprising adventure," which the movie "delivers in spades."

The Shakespeare action-drama Anonymous was supposed to open wide, but Sony made an unusual last-minute decision to cut back the release to just 265 theatres. THR's Kirk Honeycutt liked the movie, but his summary is enough the count me out. "The film grabs at historical facts, mangles them into a plot worthy of a John le Carr spy novel and takes the viewer on a breathtaking ride through ye olde London," he says of the "rousing" period drama.

Sundance pickup Like Crazy will open in four theatres. The jump cut-laden romance exudes realism and also unfolds unpredictably. Felicity Jones and Anton Yelchin star in the indie, which may be worth seeing in a theatre. The crowd I saw the romance with had audible reactions to scenes, which always makes the moviegoing experience more enjoyable.

Janie Jones will open in New York and Seattle. The Tribeca Film Festival selection centers on a rock star and his teen daughter (Abigail Breslin) by a groupie. When the mother drops out of the picture, father and daughter bond.

On Monday we'll see if pre-Halloween festivities brought down the opening weekend of Puss in Boots or boosted the performance of Paranormal Activity 3.

'Rise of the Planet of the Apes' heads off against 'The Change-Up'

By Sarah Sluis

Rise of the Planet of the Apes (3,648 theatres) bills itself as an origin tale. The "primate revolution" alluded to in the 1968 film gets the full treatment here. Unfortunately, the unraveling of this mystery is a hollow experience, says our critic. "Whereas the first films...[held] a mirror up to human society's failings like slavery, war-mongering and intolerance, this one reflects nothing but a failure of the imagination," Chris Barsanti concludes, calling it a "by-the-numbers prequel" with James Franco's performance limited to a furrowing of the brow and occasional confused looks. Older males are showing the most interest in the film, which should earn in the $20 millions. You can count me out. I don't want to ruin the feeling of the 1968 original's spectacular ending, one of the best, most satisfying conclusions of all time.

I'm pretty sure the pitch for The Change-Up (2,913 theatres) went something like this: Let's do Freaky Friday, but R-rated! With guys! Ryan Reynolds and Jason Bateman play two guys, one a single player, the other married with kids, who switch bodies. Critic Marsha McCreadie rejoiced in the "somewhat sadistic fun [watching] guys obsessing over stuff that used to worry cinematic women," like "parenting, how to treat women, handle sex, fulfill career commitments and keep it all in balance." The Change-Up may not be too original, but there are "amusing bits" amidst the "gross-out humor."

Starring Rachel Weisz as a "a working-class Nebraska cop turned U.N. law-enforcement monitor in Bosnia," The Whistleblower "eschews light escapist touches to deliver a hard-hitting message of man's inhumanity writ large." That inhumanity involves Weisz's character's discovery of sex slave trafficking, with young women tricked into thinking they will find work in such innocent occupations as waitressing.

Magic Trip (4 theatres), from prolific documentarian Alex Gibney (who co-directed with Alison Ellwood), covers Ken Kesey's famous 1964 road trip on a bus loaded with LSD and the very first hippies. The footage, culled from their amateur efforts, didn't have sync sound and "shots are blurry, shaky, often poorly exposed, and almost never long enough to understand what is going on." That didn't stop critic Daniel Eagan from declaring that "Kesey may have had some wrong-headed notions, but in Magic Trip at least he comes off as a true adventurer with noble goals."

On Monday, we'll see if The Change-Up continues the trend of overperforming R-rated comedies, and if Rise of the Planet of the Apes attracted a $20+ million opening.

'Gran Torino,' revving up, but 'Day the Earth Stood Still' should conquer box office

By Sarah Sluis

Alien-takeover remake The Day the Earth Stood Still will invade the box office this weekend, playing on 3,560 screens and ensuring at least some people will opt to enter one of those hourly multiplex showings.  Keanu Reeves does his blank-faced best as Klaatu.  Like The Matrix, the movie appears to be heavy with religious symbolism, with Reeves once again playing a Christ figure who raises people from the dead and walks on water.  The 1951 version used the national fear over the atom bomb to great effect; the remake replaces bombs with our environmental problems, but falls short, leading our Daniel Eagan to conclude that director Scott Derrickson "didn't find a way to make The Day the Earth Stood
Still
meaningful for a modern-day audience."  If you've worn out your copies of those alien disaster movies of the past twelve years--Independence Day, The Day After Tomorrow, or The War of the Worlds--you'll probably get more of the same-old here.

Gran Torino releases today in 6 theatres, joining The Reader, which opened Wednesday on 8 screens.  The movie has garnered some positive reviews, with critics assenting that it's a good Eastwood film-- our Rex Roberts notes the director has "the singular ability to turn bombast into poignancy."  But, like Changeling, the film is certainly not Clint's best work.  Eastwood plays a racist holdout in an ethnically diverse neighborhood, who befriends a young Hmong neighbor after the boy is bullied into playing out Grand Auto Theft with Eastwood's prized car.  Taking a note from those teen actresses that parlay their popularity into recording deals, Eastwood sings a song over the credits.  Of course, given that it's Clint, there's considerably more dignity involved.

The Debra Messing/John LeGuizamo-starrer Nothing Like The Holidays will open on 1,671 screens.  A serviceable, "clich-ridden story," its execution and attention to detail redeem the home-for-the-holidays plot.  Our David Noh praised the script for details like Messing's "desperate assimilating attempts to speak Spanish with a torturously 'correct' accent."  Much of Beverly Hills Chihuahua's heat came from Hispanic viewers, but whether Overture Films will be able to successfully mobilize this demographic for the movie will have to wait until Monday.

Animated fairy tale Delgo (2,160 screens), a multi-millionaire's pet project, opens today, and I sincerely hope audiences avoid this debacle.  Didn't someone tell the millionaire that your anthromorphized
characters are supposed to look cute?   Featuring the ugliest dinosaur-esque creatures, rendered in "videogame-quality CGI," according to Frank Lovece, the film seems terribly wishy-washy, ending with a climax that "flogs the verity of compassion, touting it as a good and important thing...and then shows how you're an idiot for being compassionate."  The film's ten-year gestation film is also apparent through its casting choices.  Erstwhile teen stars Freddie Prinze, Jr. and Jennifer Love Hewitt no longer have the same draw they did back in 1997's I Know What You Did Last Summer, and the memorable actress Anne Bancroft passed away before the film's completion.  I wouldn't even pick up the film in a $4.99 DVD bargain bin, because then I would have to look at those awful dinosaur things.