'The Lucky One' and 'Think Like a Man' vie for date-night audiences

Best-selling author Nicholas Sparks has a solid track record at the movie box office, and it should remain unsullied by the release of The Lucky One (3,155 theatres). Starring Zac Efron as a former ex-soldier and the newbie Taylor Schiller as the object of his affection, the romance is "good-looking but hollow," according to our critic Daniel Eagan. The "smoothly entertaining but easily forgettable" love story sounds like just the kind of undemanding film suitable for a girls' night out or date night. The PG rating and presence of former tween star Efron should draw in younger audiences in particular. Experts predict an opening north of $20 million.

Although it's opening in only two-thirds of the locations of The Lucky One, Think Like a Man (2,015 theatres) could be the underdog that makes big. The "astute, contemporary romantic comedy," as described by THR's Michael Rechtshaffen, has been picking up steam. It may earn in the mid-twenty millions, surpassing the military romance many have seen as the front-runner. Based on Steve Harvey's book Act Like a Lady, Think Like a Man, the comedy follows in the footsteps of other advice books-turned-movies, like He's Just Not That Into You. With a primarily black cast, the comedy should do particularly well among the same demographic, which is known for turning out on opening weekend. That could bring the release to the top spot.

A couple of films this week are taking advantage of holidays, both official and unofficial. Chimpanzee (1,563 theatres) is a Disneynature release timed to Earth Day, which is this Sunday. The first of the four Earth Day films, 2009's Oceans, opened to $8 million and earned four times that in total. Last year's African Cats opened to just $6 million and finished with just double that figure. Apes are more personable and relatable than cats, so Chimpanzee could end up doing slightly better than last year's offering. The nature docs are designed to tell family stories that appeal to kids, so "anthropomorphism can get heavy-handed, [and] the family values of teamwork and loyalty sometimes overstated," according to critic Marsha McCreadie. Parents may prefer "Planet Earth," but their kids will probably adore the Disneynature version.

Today is also 4/20, the celebrated stoner holiday, so what better day to release Marley (45 theatres), a documentary about the famous reggae musician Bob Marley, who also liked to partake in Jamaica's intoxicating crop. McCreadie calls it a "benchmark" and "must-see," even though she also harbors some reservations, noting that at the end of the long movie, "you are in the paradoxical position of wanting less movie, more Marley." The Magnolia release will open day-and-date with Facebook, so the industry will be watching to see the impact that has on the doc's theatrical release.

 On Monday, we'll see if The Lucky One or Think Like a Man clinched the top spot, and if the topical Earth Day and 4/20 releases attracted their respective audiences.

Keanu Reeves’ digital-vs.-film doc is a Tribeca must-see

The 11th annual Tribeca Film Festival kicked off last night in Manhattan with the premiere of the Jason Segel-Emily Blunt comedy The Five-Year Engagement, and it will be closing with one of the summer’s most anticipated blockbusters, the Marvel Comics spectacle The Avengers. But in between, the festival gets down to more serious business, offering an eclectic showcase for independent features, foreign-language titles, and intriguing documentaries.

This year, under the guidance of a new programming team consisting of artistic director Frédéric Boyer (formerly of the Cannes Directors Fortnight), chief creative officer Geoff Gilmore and programming director Genna Terranova, the fest is screening a more selective 90 features, down from about 150 two years ago.

I’ve only seen a small sampling of Tribeca entries so far, but already I can recommend three outstanding documentaries. The Revisionaries is an intimate look at the effort by Texas social conservatives to include creationism in the state’s science textbooks, an initiative with nationwide implications because Texas is such a huge market for textbook publishers and one of the few where the state vets every purchase. A key figure in Scott Thurman’s documentary is Don McLeroy, a genial dentist who serves as chairman of the state board of education and sincerely believes that men and dinosaurs walked the Earth at the same time. After much wrangling over language, the creationists agree to a compromise that’s more of a win for their side. Then it’s on to the next battleground: Texas’ history textbooks. The eye-opening Revisionaries proves the culture wars are alive and thriving, and the classic play Inherit the Wind is as timely as ever.

While The Revisionaries may leave you outraged, Searching for Sugar Man will have you walking on air—and probably humming a few of its songs. Malik Bendjelloul’s documentary is the amazing story of Sixto Rodriguez, a Detroit folksinger who released two flop albums in 1970 and ’71, never to be heard from again. Except, that is, in South Africa where, decades before social media, his music became a word-of-mouth sensation among young white liberals and his popularity rivaled that of Elvis. The film is a mystery story, a history of South African protest, and a sobering look at the vagaries of success and failure in the recording business. The saga of Rodriguez, which promises to keep evolving with Sony Pictures Classics’ July release of the film and America’s discovery of his very special music, will surely be one of the most memorable delights of this year’s Tribeca Fest.

For this website’s readers who work in motion picture production and exhibition, an absolute Tribeca must-see is Side by Side, director Chris Kenneally and producer Keanu Reeves’ documentary on the monumental changes happening in the movie world because of digital technology. Reeves has conducted interviews with an impressive array of directors, cinematographers, editors, actors, lab specialists and executives, including Martin Scorsese, James Cameron, David Fincher, David Lynch, George Lucas, Steven Soderbergh, Danny Boyle, Andy and Lana Wachowski, Vittorio Storaro, Ellen Kuras and Vilmos Zsigmond.

Side by Side provides a great primer on how the technologies of film-based photography and digital capture differ, and how digital has impacted so many aspects of the moviemaking process, from production to post-production, editing, color correction, visual effects and presentation in cinemas. The artists run the gamut from true believers in digital like Fincher, Lucas and Soderbergh to film purists like Christopher Nolan and his DP Wally Pfister. Fincher is one of the most opinionated folks on screen, dismissing the “voodoo” of cinematographers who argue for the alchemy of film and lamenting “the betrayal of the dailies,” when it’s too late to rectify on-set mistakes. Pfister is just as militant for the other side, viewing the embrace of digital cinematography as trading “oil paints for crayons.”

John Malkovich praises the speed and flexibility of digital production: “As fast as you can get back to your position, you can go again.” But Fincher has a hilarious story about Robert Downey, Jr.’s anguish over the lengthy shooting sessions enabled by digital cameras during production of Zodiac; as a symbol of protest over filming scenes without a break, Downey left behind several mason jars of urine on the set.

Martin Scorsese seems torn. He’s excited by this “reinvention of a new medium,” but he’s also nostalgic for the days when editing pieces of celluloid literally left “blood in the film.” And shortly after James Cameron reminds us that not one foot of Avatar was shot in a real jungle, Scorsese wonders, “Is the younger generation going to believe anything is real?”

Digital is a big topic, and Side by Side also provides a brief history of how digital visual effects have evolved (with Cameron seemingly there every step of the way, from The Abyss to Avatar) and the incredible strides made by digital cameras from the days of the murky Dogme 95 films to a production like The Social Network.

Certainly, digital projection has improved the experience in cinemas, eliminating scratches, tears and jump-and-weave and providing a pristine image in the 20th week of a movie’s run. (Cameron recalls how prints of Titanic fell apart in projection booths because the movie had such a long run in cinemas.)

But not everything is rosy. What about archiving and preservation? One technician notes that, to date, there have been 80 different video formats—and most of them can’t be played on today’s equipment.

It’s not unusual for a movie to spark lively conversations, but with Side by Side (opening in cinemas in August), the post-screening debates will be all about the movies and where they’re headed.

2010 Best Director nominees--where are they now?

Usually, an Oscar nomination--and especially an Oscar win--launches the honorees into a career stratosphere. The actors are cast in the next big projects, and the directors can afford to be picky about their next films. Although I've seen most of the 2010 acting nominees in a couple of movies since, only one of the 2010 directing nominees has released a new film. However, most of them are working on new projects, and two of them have films coming out this year. Let's check in: Where are they now?

Kathryn Bigelow (winner, Best Directing Oscar for The Hurt Locker). Bigelow beat her ex, James Cameron, for the Oscar and became the first female to win the directing honor. The Academy just can't pass up on creating a good story, can it? Bigelow's actually the furthest along of the bunch. Her film, Zero Dark Thirty, has a release date, December 19, 2012, and a distributor, Columbia. The military actioner centers on the Navy SEALS who take down Osama Bin Laden.

James Cameron (nominee, Avatar). Cameron went deep-sea diving. He converted Titanic to 3D. However, what audiences want most--a sequel to Avatar--may not be coming anytime soon. He and producer Jon Landau also just pushed back the release date of Avatar 2 from December 2014 to sometime in the future after that. That means there will be at least a six-year lag between the first film and its sequel, a bummer for fans who want to explore more of Pandora. (Word is the second film will dive down to the planet's oceans).

Darren Aronofsky (nominee, Black Swan). Since the success of his dark ballerina thriller, Aronofsky has mulled over three different biopics. He's currently casting Noah, with Russell Crowe in the lead role, so it appears the Biblical epic will go first. He's also considered directing Get Happy, a Judy Garland biopic with Anne Hathaway attached to star. Now comes word that Paramount may acquire The General, an Unforgiven-style biopic of our nation's first president, George Washington. He's obviously trying to find the most perfect follow-up project, but I hope he gets moving. Whatever he does, it's guaranteed to be original.

Jason Reitman (nominee, Up in the Air). Reitman is the only one of the group who has directed an original feature since his nomination. Young Adult, which came courtesy of screenwriter Diablo Cody and star Charlize Theron, was fantastic (in my opinion), but it did so-so both at the box office and at the awards circuit. I applaud Reitman for churning out projects while maintaining his sensibility--he tends to mix dark comedy with poignant moments, and I like films like that. He just cast his child lead for his next project, Labor Day. The adaptation of a novel by Joyce Maynard centers on a single mom (Kate Winslet) who gives a convict (Josh Brolin) a ride, leading to a relationship. It's filming this summer, and it will probably be out before Aronofsky's film.

Lee Daniels (nominee, Precious). Daniels' next film is The Paperboy, which IMDB lists as having a November 21, 2012, release date, but no major distributor. However, the thriller may show up at the Cannes Film Festival, and everyone will find out if it packs the wallop of Precious. The story centers on a newspaper reporter who goes to Florida to try to free an inmate on death row. Things start getting complicated when his younger brother, who is also working on the case, develops a relationship with a woman who has been corresponding with the inmate. He also has The Butler in the works, the story of a black White House butler who served eight U.S. presidents.

Each of these directors has likely had their pick of projects. Will they all deliver?

 

The Trayvon Martin case spurs related movie project

The investigation of the murder of Trayvon Martin may be in too early stages to be turned into a movie, but, sadly, there are plenty of other cases like his. The 2009 shooting of Oscar Grant by a police officer on the BART near San Francisco is yet another case like Trayvon's. In both instances,
people have argued that the shooters saw a young black male and pulled the trigger, without figuring out what was really going on.

The indie drama Fruitvale has lined up Octavia Spencer, fresh off her Oscar win, to play Grant's mother, and Michael B. Jordan (Chronicle, "Friday Night Lights") to star as Grant. The movie will follow Grant on the day of the shooting. Forest Whitaker is producing, and the newbie Ryan Coogler will earn his first feature writing and directing credit for the project.

The deal only just came together in the wake of the publicity of the Martin case, and filming will begin quickly--in just a couple of months. Certainly the press surrounding the other case must have helped the filmmakers pull the financing together and nab Spencer in the casting. This could be seen as a callous capitalization on current events, but in this case, I don't think so. Hollywood tends to shy away from the topic of race. When such issues are addressed, they're often criticized. Some of those criticisms--too soft, reductive, stereotypical-can be spot-on, but they can also have a silencing effect. No one wants to be accused of being called racist.

Fruitvale will have to succeed as a drama first, and a message film second, but the subject matter could illuminate much about race in America that is rarely shown on the silver screen.

 

'The Hunger Games' tops the box office for the fourth week in a row

The Hunger Games is the first movie to top the box office four weeks in a row since Avatar. Posting its strongest hold yet, the futuristic action movie dipped just 35% for a total of $21.5 million. The megahit has earned $337 million to date. That figure has already topped the lifetime domestic gross of 2010's Alice in Wonderland, another March release that showed the power of the pre-Spring Break box office placement.

Debuting in second place, The Three Stooges earned $17.1 million. Audiences under the 18 were the biggest fans of the trio's antics, giving the comedy an "A" CinemaScore. Despite a marketing campaign that urged women to send their men to see the movie, 42% of the audience was female, indicating that the marketing team may have missed the mark in viewing the humor as male-centric.

The Cabin in the Woods ended up on the high side of expectations with a $14.8 million finish. Even though the movie received a 92% approval rating on Rotten Tomatoes from critics, and an 81% positive rating from the site's viewers, it fell flat in exit polls, receiving just a "C" rating. Marketing that didn't clarify this was a "different" horror movie is taking the blame. Audiences expecting a normal scarefest apparently didn't like being thrown for a loop.

Titanic 3D sunk just 32% from last week for a total of $11.6 million. Abroad, it's doing even better, particularly in China. There, the film has earned an astonishing $58 million--a further sign that the nation is becoming one of the top foreign markets.

Audiences got straightforward action with Lockout, but there weren't many takers, and the Luc Besson-produced picture earned a middling $6.2 million in a ninth-place finish.

The documentary Bully averaged $3,380 per screen as it expanded into 158 theatres, for a total just over half a million dollars. That average is higher than many films in the top ten, making it a successful doc, but not a blockbuster--at least not yet.

The Raid: Redemption tried to parlay its rave reviews into a wider release. Although it earned $1 million, the action movie's per-screen average of $1,100 was extremely weak.

This Friday, the soldier-civilian romance The Lucky One will attempt to woo Zac Efron fans, Disney celebrates Earth Day with Chimpanzee, and Think Like a Man will mix romance with comedy.

'Three Stooges' and 'Cabin in the Woods' will try to top 'Hunger Games'

By releasing in relatively quiet March, which usually has room for one big blockbuster, The Hunger Games has been able to plow over the competition and keep the number one spot for three weeks in a row. Now the futuristic kids-fighting-to-the-death picture has a chance at winning for the fourth week in a row--as long as it isn't topped by The Three Stooges. The Hunger Games is on track to earn around $18 million, which is just above the estimates for the two wide releases this weekend.

Larry, Curly, and Moe bring their classic shtick to the modern age in The Three Stooges (3,477 theatres). It's hard to top the original, iconic comedic trio, and critic Maitland McDonagh feels the gags "come off as awkward imitations rather than organic reinterpretations." The Farrelly Brothers, who directed, clearly adore the comedians (Have you noticed that Jim Carrey sports Moe's haircut in the directors' hit Dumb and Dumber?) but this is a "misbegotten attempt to revive the anarchic slapstick antics of the trio," McDonagh declares. Still, if any film will beat Hunger Games, it's The Three Stooges.

The Cabin in the Woods (2,811 theatres) is one of the rare films that was shelved for three years and is actually really good, not really bad. Horror films rarely collect raves from critics, but this Joss Whedon-produced picture is currently tracking 92% positive on Rotten Tomatoes. However, genre-bending films like Kick-Ass have a record of delighting fanboys while alienating the masses. Some predict the horror flick will top out at $8-9 million, while other prognosticators think it will earn twice as much. A "wider audience deserves to find The Cabin in the Woods," McDonagh declares. But will they come?

A "so-so action outing from the Luc Besson factory," Lockout (2,308 theatres) "will have trouble attracting anyone besides die-hard action fans," according to critic Daniel Eagan. That may explain why the movie's weekend estimate is hovering somewhere around $7 million. Although it melds together a couple of cool concepts--A prison in space! A kidnapped President's daughter!--"concept tops execution."

The Weinstein Co. finally capitulated and made a few edits to their documentary Bully, though they buried that information deep into their press release. The PG-13-rated film will expand to 55 locations this week. If this documentary can pick up on even a fraction of the publicity devoted to the topic, it will do quite well. Much-lauded Indonesian action flick The Raid: Redemption continues its expansion, moving into over 650 theatres.

On Monday we'll return to see if comedy, horror, or The Hunger Games ruled over the box office.

 

Bob Marley doc 'Marley' will release day-and-date on Facebook

Don't expect a film from a major studio to release day-and-date theatrically and on-demand anytime soon. The theatrical window has strong forces protecting it, and too many people are worried that change will drive people away from theatres forever. However, small distributors, who often screen their films in independent theatres, have been pursuing day-and-date VOD releases for a few years now. IFC, particularly, has aggressively pursued the on-demand strategy. Considering the distributor also owns theatres, it can't be all bad for the exhibition side of its business.

So it makes sense that the Magnolia release Marley, a documentary about the reggae musician  Bob Marley, will be the first to be available for day-and-date rental on Facebook. Posters of the famous reggae musician are standard-issue in college dorms, and Facebook has a hold on the youth audience. College students are also less likely to have televisions, and be more open to streaming the film on their computer. Additionally, I bet there a few people who'd like to watch the documentary at home while imbibing in the substance for which the musician is famous--and brag about it on Facebook later. The Facebook rentals will be $6.99, compared to about $12 each for a movie ticket. For those that want to watch the movie on their television, on-demand will be an option too.

Ironically, even though such simultaneous releases shatter the theatrical window, they also profit from it. People won't pay $6.99 to rent a movie once it's on DVD, but they will pay that much to see a movie that's "only in theatres." Couldn't this system just fall apart if too many movies become available concurrently with their release? Simultaneous release can and will be destructive to the traditional theatrical model. Theatres provide something tangible--a big screen, comfy seats, a communal experience--in addition to the intangible. By seeing a movie "first," you get to be the one to talk about it to your friends first, and you won't be left out of the conversation. You also don't have to delay gratification--you can enjoy a "must-see" film right away. On-demand releases charge more because of the intangibles, not the tangibles. You can even add another intangible, "convenience," to the list as well, since parents of young children or people who live far away from movie theatres would get more value out of the experience. Simultaneous releases will only get more popular and continue to evolve. Will they be symbiotic with the theatrical model, or will they devour it?