The Oscars are on Sunday. After months of lead-up awards ceremonies and over two months after the end of 2011, the Academy will finally crown its winners. Here's what you need to know in order to make your Oscar predictions and slip in a knowing comment or two.
If The Artist doesn't win Best Picture, it will be a huge upset.
Silent, black & white The Artist has wooed nearly everyone who's been convinced to see it. Critics have embraced the movie, and it has already won several major awards, including Best Picture at the Golden Globes and BAFTA. It also won Best Director for Michel Hazanavicius at the Directors Guild of America awards, a category that strongly correlates with Oscar wins. Besides Best Picture, The Artist could also pull out a win for Best Director (and by extension, Best Editing, which often goes along with Best Director). If it wins those categories, which occur earlier in the ceremony, a Best Picture win is a lock. My dark horse pick is The Descendants, which won Best Drama at the Globes.
Streep will get a "career" Oscar
Giving Meryl Streep an Oscar is a bit of a sentimental pick that rewards her for all her previous work rather than her current film. The first four times she was nominated at the Oscars, she won twice (for Kramer vs. Kramer and Sophie's Choice). Since then, she's been nominated another thirteen times without winning once. Streep may have embodied Margaret Thatcher in The Iron Lady, but the movie itself was so-so. This time, that shouldn't stop her from winning an Oscar.
Best Actor is a toss-up
Jean Dujardin is an unknown in the United States but he performed in the most lauded movie of the year. George Clooney did what he does best under the estimable direction of Alexander Payne in The Descendants. Both won in their respective comedy/drama categories for the Globes. Will star power win, or will Dujardin's silent acting in the most-lauded movie of the year win out? This category is one of the closest.
Most likely to make a teary speech: Octavia Spencer
When Spencer won for her performance in The Help in the Golden Globes, her speech was the best of the night. If she wins Best Supporting Actress on Sunday, I'm sure she'll bring the house down. She's one of the few people who has only just tasted fame and will be in awe and oh-so grateful for the honor. I'll have my fingers crossed for her.
Could Woody Allen show up?
When Allen won Best Screenplay for Midnight in Paris at the Golden Globes, he didn't show. He's only attended the Oscars once, when he pleaded for producers to continue shooting movies in NYC after 9/11. It's unlikely he'll don a tux and put in an appearance, but if he does it'll be legendary. Seeing how the presenters handle his absence will also be an evaluation of their gracefulness. In the Adapted Screenplay category, I'm picking The Descendants.
Make sure you set your DVRs for the ceremony this Sunday. In case you need to print out an Oscar ballot, check out this pdf.
And to hear a podcast about the Academy Awards featuring FJI contributor Jon Frosch, click here.
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