An Academy voter speaks about Shorts, Foreign Language Film, and the voting process. Says (s)he prefers 5 Best Picture nominees.

Awards season has finally come to its final stretch. Technically, Academy Awards campaigning has reached its final few hours since the voting officially closes today at 5pm PT before Sunday March 2^nd’s telecast. I know it’s one of those things people say every year, but this year really seems unique in terms of how close of a race we’ve been witnessing in the still open Best Picture category. Many pundits are predicting a split, picture going to 12 Years A Slave and director going to Alfonso Cuarón for Gravity.  

While many talk about either clear frontrunners (such as Cate Blanchett for Best Actress), or close races (such as Lupita Nyong’o or Jennifer Lawrence for Best Supporting Actress) in major categories, I have been wondering about the relatively “smaller” races, in Short Films and Foreign Language categories, mainly because of the voting changes that have taken effect in the last couple of years. This is the second year all AMPAS members are invited to vote on Best Documentary, Best Animated and Live Action Short categories (members started getting screeners for these last year and are no longer required to attend official screenings). And this is also the very first year all members are invited to vote on Foreign Language and Best Documentary Short categories. I wondered how Academy members react to these changes, and whether their voting has been impacted in a way that might change the results, favoring the more popular titles among a pool of nominees that members didn’t necessarily watch in their entirety on screeners. Then I thought, what better person is there to ask than a voting Academy member. I am grateful that someone agreed to talk to me not only about these questions, but also more about this year and voting in general.

I am of course going to keep their identity a secret. When Daily Beast did an interview with a voting member, he/she was named “Pat”. I’ll call my source “Sam”. Because, why not?

Thank you, Sam, for agreeing to talk to me. My first question is regarding the Shorts, and Foreign categories. Until recently, members who’d like to vote on these had to attend Academy-hosted screenings. Now every member gets screeners. How did this change your voting? Do you see the films, or vote based on popular word?

I know what they [AMPAS] were trying to do: making sure that those categories were a little less exclusive. The problem is that, you don’t really know when you get a screener if people are really going to watch it. Foreign films and docs are not easy to watch like the more commercial movies. You have to really pay attention. And I think it will definitely have an effect on the winners. It’s good in the sense that you get thousands of votes. But when you had to attend a screening, at least you knew that people saw the film in its entirety. I was talking to a voter about Foreign Film, who said (s)he put the Italian movie down eventhough (s)he didn't see it entirely. So you don’t really know who’s going to watch.

The ballot is still valid if you skip a category, right?

Yes. Do I find that people skip categories? I think some people do. And I think some people will vote if they haven’t seen all the films, based on what they read, who they know. Sometimes you ask, “Should I vote for something that’s politically correct or vote for something that I really like even if it may not be the best movie?” It’s really a tough call. That said, I think New York voters are really different than California voters.

The Great Beauty

How so?

I find that the people I’m talking to [in New York] liked a certain film in Foreign Language. They really REALLY like The Great Beauty. I was talking to somebody who does awards consulting based in LA and found that people out in California really seem to love The Hunt.

Wow.

And to me, there’s no comparison. The Hunt is a really good movie. But it’s not breaking new ground. I think Great Beauty is a fantastic movie. Brings back the way people first saw Fellini back in the 60s. The Great Beauty to me is another category by itself but a lot people didn’t really respond to it in California.

Have you seen the shorts? Are you voting?

I’ve seen them all. And I didn’t see them on screener. I went to the screening. 

I was slightly underwhelmed by the animated crop. But thought live action was really strong this year.

Oh I thought the animation was also very strong this year. The doc shorts were OK. The live action shorts were very good.

Just Before Losing Everything was great.

That was actually my favorite one. And some people I spoke to really like Helium. It was a nice movie, but it didn’t have the same effect on me as the French film (Just Before Losing Everything). It was a little too much. But I was surprised, talking to people in the theater. By the way, among the New York Academy members, there is a core group that actually goes to screenings. And you see each other twice a week and become friends. It’s actually amazing how so few people in the NY branch come to screenings. Although I would say with the shorts, there were 50 members in the screening room. Considering they all got their screeners and made it out to see it in bad weather, it is a very good number.

Just Before Losing Everything

Do you think Academy should go back to the requirement that you have to attend a screening?

I think if they’re going to give screeners out to members, it wouldn’t be such a bad idea to make you go to the official screening first and then send a screener to those people who have attended, so they can see it again if they choose to. But I don’t know if they’d ever do that. Once you cross that line, you can’t take it away.

It seems like there is a scandal every year that grows in size online. This year, the Woody Allen story resurfaced. People questioned Wolf of Wall Street’s ethics, Dallas Buyers Club’s accuracy... Do these “scandals” have an effect on the way you vote?

Personally, I don’t care. Look, if I don’t like someone, it doesn’t make a difference. If I really hate a person, but if he gives a really great performance, I am not going to not vote for him. It’s not what you’re voting for. For Roman Polanski’s The Pianist, people were saying, “You can’t vote for the movie by a child molester.” The word was out, the gloves came off and everybody got involved in it. I personally don’t care.

How do you feel about everyone voting for everything? I am mostly talking about the technical categories. Do you think everyone should instead vote on their own branch only (like nominations) and then Best Picture?

Not really. Well, the more you go to the movies and the more you vote, the more familiar you get with all the categories. And you watch movies more carefully. I am on the Academy screenings committee. And sometimes we select movies that can be really good in some of these technical categories. Like special effects, or production design.

So what you’re saying is that voters start to watch with different eyes.

Yeah. We sometimes talk about these. “Wasn’t that music horrible? It didn’t belong in the film” or “It wasn’t the music that was bad, it was just its place in the film.” SO we get into these discussions. I don’t know how many of the members read all the trades when they’re doing their awards editions, but I actually like reading below-the-line articles. I know enough people who are interested in all that. So when we have Q&As, we say, “Why do we always have the actor? We’ve seen him in a thousand talk shows. Can’t we get the costume designer, for instance?” But it’s very hard to get to those people. Because they are usually working on something else by that time.

I am starting to think this “anywhere’s between 5 to 10 best picture nominees” is proving to be a pointless exercise. This is the third year in a row that we end up with 9 nominees.

I didn’t vote for 9 (voted for 10). And I like the 5 still. I really do. I also think we should just pick ONE winner. I like the idea that, after the nominations come out, people just pick one movie as their favorite film. And that’s that.

So no preferential ranking.

I would just say put your favorite movie down and that’s it. Make a decision without thinking “if I vote for this, more people will vote for that.” You just need to vote with your heart, on what works for you. And that’s basically what happens when I vote. I vote on a movie that I really really really like.

Passion comes before anything else.

Absolutely. I worked on Academy movies at studios. And when I got my ballot, sometimes I personally didn’t think [what I was working on] was the best movie. So I didn’t vote for it.

Her

What is the one upset you want to see on Oscar night?

Well, my favorite movie is Her. If that wins [Best Picture], it would make me so happy. But it doesn’t have a shot although I think it should win. Everybody I talk to is all over the map for this one. It could be 12 Years A Slave. It could be Gravity. It could be American Hustle. Although -- I don’t know about American Hustle.

Everybody is calling a split this year for Director/Picture.

Gravity is all about the direction. And I think Cuarón deserves it of all the directors. The movie is only a success because of him.

Only one more week to go.

I can’t wait for it to be over.

 I bet.

Black List reveals best of 2013's unproduced

Earlier today The Black List unveiled its top picks for the year’s best unproduced screenplays. Holland, Michigan by Andrew Sodroski earned the most number of votes out of a pack that includes such enticingly titled projects as Randle is Benign, The Shark Is Not Working, Time & Temperature, The Boy and His Tiger, and the we’re-pretty-sure-we-know-what-this-is-about (and-we’re-excited-for-it) A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood.

Since 2005 The Black List, founded by Franklin Leonard and Dino Sijamic, has compiled an annual roster of screenplays that is meant to represent the best of the industry’s exponential pile of unproduced works. The organization tends to be spot on. Of the past five Best Picture winners, three were made from Black-Listed scripts: Argo, Slumdog Millionaire, and The King’s Speech. Juno, The Social Network, The Descendants, and Django Unchained all won the Oscar for Best Screenplay, and were all once listed on The Black List.

The upcoming Fathers and Daughters, starring Russell Crowe, Amanda Seyfried and “Breaking Bad’s” Aaron Paul, was a Black List selection from 2012, as was the Hillary Clinton biopic, Rodham, currently in development at Lionsgate.

See if you can spot 2015’s Best Picture winner out of this year’s group of 72 (listed in no particular order) below:

MISSISSIPPI MUD by Elijah Bynum

PATIENT Z by Michael Le

MAKE A WISH by Zach Frankel

RANDLE IS BENIGN by Damien Ober

A MONSTER CALLS by Patrick Ness

QUEEN OF HEARTS by Stephanie Shannon

HOLLAND, MICHIGAN by Andrew Sodroski

HOT SUMMER NIGHTS by Elijah Bynum

DUDE by Oliva Milch

PAN by Jason Fuchs

SUPERBRAT by Eric Slovin & Leo Allen

SEED by Christina Hodson

CAKE by Patrick Tobin

DIABLO RUN by Shea Mirzai and Evan Mirzai

SEA OF TREES by Chris Sparling

FRISCO by Simon Stephenson

WHERE ANGELS DIE by Alexander Felix

SUGAR IN MY VEINS by Barbara Stepansky

SECTION 6 by Aaron Berg

LAST MINUTE MAIDS by Leo Nicholas

BROKEN COVE by Declan O'Dwyer

TIME & TEMPERATURE by Nick Santora

POX AMERICANA by Frank John Hughes

THE FIXER by Bill Kennedy

HALF HEARD IN STILLNESS by David Weil

THE LINE by Sang Kyu Kim

BEAST by Zach Dean

THE REMAINS by Meaghan Oppenheimer

TCHAIKOVSKY'S REQUIEM by Jonathan Stokes

AMERICAN SNIPER by Jason Dean Hall

THE POLITICIAN by Matthew Bass and Theodore Bressman

BEAUTY QUEEN by Annie Neal

REMINISCENCE by Lisa Joy Nolan

FREE BYRD by Jon Boyer

DIG by Adam Barker

MAN OF SORROW by Neville Kiser

THE GOLDEN RECORD by Aaron Kandell and Jordan Kandell

NICHOLAS by Leo Sardarian

FROM HERE TO ALBION by Rory Haines and Sohrab Noshirivani

1969: A SPACE ODYSSEY OR HOW KUBRICK LEARNED TO STOP WORRYING AND LAND ON THE MOON by Stephany Folsom

CLARITY by Ryan Belenzon and Jeffrey Gelber

ELSEWHERE by Mikki Daughtry and Tobias Iaconis

THE KILLING FLOOR by Bac Delorme and Stephen Clarke

REVELATION by Hernany Perla

THE CROWN by Max Hurwitz

THE CIVILIAN by Rachel Long & Brian Pittman

AUTOPSY OF JANE DOE by Richard Naing and Ian Goldberg

THE SHARK IS NOT WORKING by Richard Cordiner

THE INDEPENDENT by Evan Parter

FAULTS by Riley Stearns

THE SPECIAL PROGRAM by Debora Cahn

I'M PROUD OF YOU by Noah Harpster and Micah Fitzerman-Blue

SOVEREIGN by Geoff Tock and Greg Weidman

DOGFIGHT by Nicole Riegel

INK AND BONE by Zak Olkewicz

A BEAUTIFUL DAY IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD by Alexis C Jolly

GAY KID AND FAT CHICK by Bo Burnham

BURY THE LEAD by Justin Kremer

EXTINCTION by Spenser Cohen

SPOTLIGHT by Josh Singer and Tom McCarthy

THE MAYOR OF SHARK CITY by Nick Creature and Michael Sweeney

THE END OF THE TOUR by Donald Margulies

FULLY WRECKED by Jake Morse & Scott Wolman

PURE O by Kate Trefry

CAPSULE by Ian Shorr

SHOVEL BUDDIES by Jason Mark Hellerman

BURN SITE by Doug Simon

THE COMPANY MAN by Andrew Cypiot

SWEETHEART by Jack Stanley

INQUEST by Josh Simon

THE BOY AND HIS TIGER by Dan Dollar

LINE OF DUTY by Cory Miller

Pre-Toronto, hype builds for 'Gravity' and James Cameron gives his endorsement

For those that have been following the Venice and Telluride film festivals, there's one movie that keeps being talked about: Gravity. Our contributor Tomris Laffly named it in her festival top two. Now, leading up to its next appearance at the Toronto Film Festival, the buzz is approaching an onslaught. Variety just released an article going into deep detail about how writer/director Alfonso
Cuaron conquered the incredible technical challenges of making the film---so much so, the movie took 4 1/2 years to make, in part because of the technology needed to film realistic, weightless scenes in space, and needed to do so using his trademark long takes. I try not to get too excited about films that get this much early hype, but in this case, it's hard not to get worked up for this feature. Nearly everything Variety says sounds like Gravity is chock-full of Oscar nominations.

On Sandra Bullock, who already looks like a Best Actress contender:

"Because it was laborious to get in and out of her rig, Bullock chose to
stay inside the light box alone for nine or 10 hours at a time,
communicating only through a headset. Though she calls those hours
isolating and silent, she adds, 'It also gave me the opportunity to dig
as deeply as I needed to for whatever was required, in privacy. … To me
it felt as though there was nothing but the thoughts in my head to give
me company.'"

On just one of the lighting challenges faced by Cuaron's cinematographer, Emmanuel Lubezki, a five-time Oscar nominee--I'm pretty sure that alone makes him a shoo-on for the statuette:

"Lubezki suggested folding an LED screen into a box, putting the actor
inside, and using the light from the screen to light the actor. That
way, instead of moving either Bullock or Clooney in the middle of static
lights, the projected image could move while they stayed still and
safe."

And there's the endorsement of the film (and by extension, writer/director Cuaron) by one of the most technically precise filmmakers out there, James Cameron:

“'What is interesting is the human dimension,' Cameron says. 'Alfonso and Sandra working together to create an absolutely seamless portrayal of a woman fighting for her life in zero gravity.'"

For those eager to get past the September slump and catch some Oscar-worthy films, they're in luck: Gravity will be one of the first awards frontrunners to release, coming out on October 4.

'Argo' triumphs again at 2013 Oscars

As soon as Argo won the Oscar for Film Editing, it seemed inevitable that the 1970s CIA thriller would also win Best Picture. Forget about the fact that Ben Affleck wasn't nominated for Best Director.  He had already won the DGA award that heralds a Best Picture award, and if there's any other Oscar night award that predicts Best Picture, it's the one for editing.

In a year with so many good films, it was nice to see that most of the nominees went home with Oscars. The biggest winner of the night was Life of Pi with four wins, but Argo and Les Miserables followed with three, and Lincoln and Django Unchained each grabbed two awards. Silver Linings
Playbook scored with one major award, Jennifer Lawrence for Best Actress. Zero Dark Thirty was the only real loser of the bunch, with just one (a tie, even!) for Sound Editing. That movie deserved more--it was better than The Hurt Locker, which scooped up six Oscars, compared to ZDT's solo win. But in such a strong field of players, the awards were divided evenly, instead of the "sweeps" by one film that have dominated the Oscars in recent years.

There were a few surprises in the wins. Although I loved Christoph Waltz's performance in Django Unchained, the role was quite similar to the one that previously won him an Oscar, in Inglourious Basterds. I also think that his role was central enough that it barely skated into the "supporting" category.

In the Animated Feature category, it was Disney Pixar vs. Disney, and a bit surprising that Pixar's Brave won over Wreck-It Ralph, which had been favored to win. This was a weak year for the animated category. In years past, the top two animated films were better than all the nominees this year.

Jennifer Lawrence and Jessica Chastain both won "Best Actress" awards at the Golden Globes, but only one could win at the Oscars. Although I favored Chastain, both for the quality of the role she played, and the fact that she has a bit of seniority over Lawrence, Lawrence could not have been a
more---well, not graceful, but grateful winner. Her speeches, both in front of the mike and backstage, felt so natural and effusive and funny that it was hard not to root for the star. In contrast, Anne Hathaway's "It came true" speech fell flat among many Twitter couch pundits. She was in the difficult position of being heavily favored for the win and her speech came off sounding rehearsed and fake--all the more inexcusable because she was accepting the award for Best Supporting Actress. I think her team was looking for an "Oscar moment" that just didn't quite register.

Argo was a strong, crowd-pleasing choice for Best Picture, but I wonder if some of the other eight nominees may age better than that film. Argo's victorious look at U.S. history was certainly more palatable than Zero Dark Thirty's version, but it has its own flaws. How Argo got away with its inaccuracies and dramatizations while ZDT was slammed for them remains a mystery. If anything, it shows that Argo benefited from historical distance while ZDT hurt from covering a topic that still pushes many political and moral buttons.

Now that the onslaught of awards season has come to a close, movie lovers will face the long drought before the next crop of awards contenders is ready. But in the meantime, there's plenty of spring and summer tentpoles (and some hopeful indies) that go very well with a side of popcorn.

'Identity Thief' may rise to the top as 'Snitch' and 'Dark Skies' provide weak competition

In the doldrums of late February, two new releases will hit theatres this weekend, Snitch and Dark Skies. But neither of those should go far over $10 million, making it likely a holdover like Identity Thief will return to the number one spot. This Sunday is the Oscars, so nominated films should also see a boost in ticket sales. Next week, the impact from the winners should be even higher.

Dwayne Johnson (The Rock) stars in Snitch (2,511 theatres) as a father who goes undercover to save his son from imprisonment. Critic Daniel Eagan describes the action film as unusually socially
conscious, "[dealing] honestly with issues like peer pressure, prison
rape, broken families, limited opportunities for ex-cons—to say
nothing of the alarming statistics several characters deliver about
mandatory sentencing." That focus on the "human cost" makes this less of the mindless entertainment that fans may expect, which could potentially hurt the action offering's ratings in exit polls and word-of-mouth.

The thriller Dark Skies (2,313 theatres) will round out the new offerings this weekend. Marketing has focused on the fact that this comes from the producers of Paranormal Activity and Insidious. The trickling of reviews that have come in so far indicate that this alien abduction story doesn't have a lot going for it, so it may open
to $10 million or so and then blow out quickly.

The Hispanic box office is much-coveted piece of the theatrical pie these days. Bless Me Ultima, an adaptation of a 1972 coming-of-age novel that has become a touchstone of Chicano literature, will have a small release in 263 theatres. That could be enough to bring the movie over $1 million if it targets theatres that usually do well with Hispanic-leaning fare.

The current top twenty includes seven of the nine Best Picture Oscar nominees: Silver Linings Playbook (5th), Zero Dark Thirty (10th), Life of Pi (12th), Argo (13th), Lincoln (15th), Django Unchained (16th), and Les Miserables (17th). These movies should continue to play strongly this week and for a month or so after the Oscars. This is one good year, where great movies are racking up great returns from the box office.

On Monday, we'll evaluate the box office and weigh in on the results of Sunday night's Oscars.

Another Academy Awards predictor joins the fray, 'Social Oscars'

The second site to try to "Nate Silver"
the Oscars is Social
Oscars. Back in mid-January, Screener reported on Farsite Forecast, which doles out each
nominee's percentage chance at winning the Oscars. Social Oscars, which social
media monitoring company Brandwatch created, takes a different route. The
company's interactive infographic compares which movies the critics think will
win to the ones that the public thinks will win. Surprisingly, the critics and
public are pretty much in agreement for most of the categories. There's rarely
more than a couple percentage points in

differences between the two, which may
not be even statistically significant since they don't mention the sample size.
However, some of their findings do back up the anecdotal feelings about races
in various categories.

In the Best Picture race, for example, more
critics (12%) are excited about Zero Dark Thirty than members of the
public (7%). Life of Pi's sentimentality played better with the public
(12%) than critics (9%). Argo has recently become the frontrunner for
Best Picture, unseating the early momentum of Zero Dark Thirty and the
solid, blue-chip choice of Steven Spielberg's Lincoln. If Argo
wins, the Social Oscars will have correctly picked the winner, since 23% of the
public and 19% of critics have voted this as their favorite.

The Social Oscars is a fun tool, but it overlooks
one big fact. Who wins the Oscars usually has only a loose correlation with the
popular and critical choices. For every winner like The King's Speech,
which was the 2010 victor and supported by both critics and audiences,
there's a movie that critics were rooting for but the public did not see in
theatres in big numbers (that describes 2011 winner The Artist or 2009
winner The Hurt Locker), or a popular favorite that's just good enough
or has some kind of special hook that convinces the Academy that it deserves
recognition (Gladiator, Titanic, Forrest Gump). The Oscars can
sometimes be an exercise in game theory (see 2001 Best Picture winner A
Beautiful Mind for a brush-up on that). Many critics distinguish between
the movies they like best and the movie that they think they will win,
sometimes developing subcategories like a movie they campaign for and want to
win, even while acknowledging another movie probably has a better shot. A
regular Joe may count nominee Django Unchained as the most enjoyable
picture of the year but feel that Argo is the better choice for a Best
Picture winner. The Social Oscars' infographic is an interesting tool to gauge
the relative popularity of the Best Picture choices, for example, but critical
and popular reaction are just one piece of the pie when it comes to the Oscars.

Jessica Chastain's 'Mama' and 'Zero Dark Thirty' could go 1-2 this weekend

Jessica Chastain just won a Golden Globe for Best Actress in a Drama. Now she has a standard horror genre picture coming out this weekend, though it does come courtesy of executive producer Guillermo del Toro. Still, it's unlikely that she'll be "Norbit-ed." The term refers to how Eddie Murphy, nominated for Best Supporting Actor for Dreamgirls in 2006, may have had his changes torpedoed by his starring role in the lowbrow comedy. With a 63% positive rating on Rotten
Tomatoes (compared to Norbit's 7% positive rating), it's unlikely Mama (2,647 theatres) will be an embarrassment. The PG-13 rated picture is a "throwback and a modest delight
for people who like a good scare but prefer not to be terrorized or
grossed out," observes THR's critic Todd McCarthy. "Bloodthirsty female teens" will be a prime audience for the movie, which centers on Chastain and two young girls she takes in after a traumatic experience. An opening in the high teens would put the picture ahead of Zero Dark Thirty (also starring Chastain), though they should be neck and neck. If Zero Dark Thirty loses a third of its audience, which would be a particularly good hold, it will end up around $16 million, which should be enough for second place, if not first.

Last Stand and Broken City will both compete for adult male audiences this weekend. They're
expected to do fairly similar business, with each one ending up in the low teen millions. The Last Stand (2,913 theatres) is Arnold Schwarzenegger's first leading-man role since he underwent the transition from movie star to politician, becoming a two-term governor of California. However, the action hero had much-touted cameos in the Expendables movies that many already considered his "return." Wittily self-referential, the film
particularly sends up Schwarzenegger’s age," reports FJI critic Marsha McCreadie, noting a scene where he has to don glasses to get a look at a bullet wound. The answer to the "implied question behind the film: Can
Schwarzenegger still deliver?" is yes.

A corrupt mayor (Russell Crowe) hires a P.I. (Mark Wahlberg) to find out if his wife (Catherine Zeta-Jones) is being unfaithful in Broken City (2,620 theatres). Of course, that initial hint of betrayal spirals into something much bigger in this "noir-ish" look
at New York City. The "broad, splashy pieces of easily digestible
narrative, visual and character components...provides
an easy ride into a cheesy, lazily imagined New York political
scandal," offers critic Doris Toumarkine. That might be enough to get adult males into seats this weekend, at least the ones who prefer to see power wielded cerebrally, not physically.

After spending three weeks playing in around 750 theatres, Silver Linings Playbook will open wide, into, 2,523 locations. The romantic comedy has earned $43 million to date. This weekend should add at least another $10 million to the total. All four lead actors (Bradley Cooper, Jennifer Lawrence, Robert De Niro, Jacki Weaver) received Oscar nominations for their performances. With a cipher of a title and a premise that's hard to reduce to a one-line plot description, this movie has sought to gain viewers primarily through word-of-mouth, which is why it has rolled out so slowly.

On Monday, we'll see which Jessica Chastain film led the box office and how many Academy Award nominees kept their spot in the top ten.

 

 

NYFCC gives 'Zero Dark Thirty' its top honors

The New York Film Critics Circle gave three cheers for Zero Dark Thirty, awarding the film a trio of honors: Best Feature, Best Director, and Best Cinematography. Director Kathryn Bigelow's follow-up to her Oscar winner The Hurt Locker is even better than that movie, in my opinion. Zero Dark Thirty is broader in scope and more harrowing. Plus, it centers on the (successful!) hunt for Osama Bin Laden. The movie was already in pre-production when Bin Laden was killed, forcing writer Mark Boal to rewrite the script last-minute. I think the fact that the movie was originally
concieved as a story of failure makes the resulting film less hagiographic. It's just the straightforward tale of a CIA agent (Jessica Chastain) with a hunch that wherever Bin Laden's trusted courier is, Bin Laden must be there too.

This isn't the first time Bigelow has been honored by the New York Film Critics Circle. They previously gave her the Best Director honor for The Hurt Locker back in 2009. That movie, about bomb defusers in Iraq, also won Best Picture. Could this mean that Zero Dark Thirty could take top prize come Oscar time?

I still haven't seen another frontrunner, Les Miserables, but Zero Dark Thirty certainly has what it takes to win the Oscars. Gravitas tends to triumph when it comes to the staid Oscar stauettes, so that would raise the movie above another one set in the Middle East, Argo, which was more comic. However, Bigelow won just a few years ago, and under circumstances that can't be repeated. She was the first female recipient for Best Director, and the movie won Best Picture over the behemoth Avatar (which was directed by her ex, an intriguing piece of Hollywood history). However, Tom Hooper, who directed Les Miserables, won Best Director and Best Feature even more recently, for 2010's The King's Speech. There are so many potential stories of success, and deciding factors, like audience response, still in play. How will Zero Dark Thirty do at the box office, for example? Will the procedural story of a female CIA agent catch on with audiences who may have been expecting a male hero? For the moment, I'm with the NYFCC, and my money's on Bigelow.

Nominations for Independent Spirit Awards heat up award season

Now that the Gotham Awards have come and gone, it's time to look at the Independent Spirit Award nominations, which were announced yesterday. Of course, what's great about the Spirit Awards is that they tend to reward movies that won't have a big play in the Oscar race. However, many of the nominees for the Spirit Awards have also been angling for statuettes at the Oscars.

Of the five nominees for Best Feature, both Moonrise Kingdom and Silver Linings Playbook received four other nominations for five in total, making them the most-nominated features. When it comes to the Oscars, Silver Linings Playbook is a shoo-in for the Best Picture category, while Moonrise is an outlier. Beasts of the Southern Wild grabbed four nominations, as did Keep the Lights On. However, at least according to the odds posted by GoldDerby, Beasts has a better chance for receiving the coveted Best Picture nomination come Oscar time. Rounding out the group is Bernie, which received only one other nomination, for the performance of Jack Black.

Safety Not Guaranteed, an indie comedy that parlayed word-of-mouth into a $4 million theatrical box office, received two nominations, for Best First Screenplay and Best First Feature. Whether they win or not, it seems like the screenwriters already have launched their career. Today, Variety reported that the movie's director/producer Colin Trevorrow and writer/producer Derek Connolly have been hired to write Disney's remake of the sci-fi picture Flight of the Navigator. Trevorrow may also direct. They also sold yet another project to Disney that Trevorrow is attached to direct, but it sounds like Flight of the Navigator will be up to bat first.

So while the Spirit nominations reinforce the Oscar prospects for Silver Linings Playbook, Moonrise Kingdom, and Beasts of the Southern Wild, their biggest impact may be to recognize the work of independent filmmakers and give others the exposure they need to start plying their craft at major studios.

Telluride Film Festival brings early reviews of 'Argo,' 'Hyde Park on Hudson'

Known as the festival for film lovers, the small Telluride Film
Festival, which took place over Labor Day weekend, included screenings
of Argo and Hyde Park of Hudson, two high-profile movies set to release later this year. Hyde Park is clearly Oscar bait, while Argo has been flying under the radar. Expectations appear to have helped Argo (they were low to begin with) and hurt Hyde Park on Hudson. Here are some of the critical responses coming out of the festival.

Argo: On its way up. Sure, Ben Affleck won a screenwriting Oscar for Good Will Hunting, but he's done mostly mainstream commercial work as an
actor since then. But he also won
praise as a director with 2010's The Town and has an acting role in
Terrence Malick's To the Wonder. His
third directing effort, Argo,
a fact-based thriller about the Iran hostage crisis, should do well at
the box office when it opens wide on October 12. However, it's now also
being talked about as a serious Oscar contender.  A surprise pick at
Telluride, Anne Thompson of Indiewire declares that "multiple Oscar nominations are in order as this movie surges to the top of the current Oscar contenders list." THR lauds the "crackerjack political thriller," and praises the "confidence and finesse" of Affleck's directing.

Holding position: Hyde Park on Hudson. A personal story of a historical figure, FDR, Hyde Park on Hudson appears to be taking a note from The King's Speech,
2010's success story. However, early notices indicate it doesn't rise
to
the heights of the Oscar winner. Jeff Wells of Hollywood Elsewhere
was rather dismissive of the "well-finessed historical parlor piece." Eric Kohn of Indiewire manages expectations,
deciding that the historical pic has "enough momentum to keep its lead
actors (including Laura Linney as the president's temporary love
interest) in the awards race." From a commerical perspective, THR pegs it
as a "refined treat that nonetheless will appeal to a wide audience." 
Maybe the Focus release, which opens on December 7, will be more like The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel, a box-office hit that will likely be recognized at the Oscars, but not overwhelmingly. Surely Hyde Park on Hudson
will gather more nominations than that movie, but the FDR-centered love
story may be too reminiscent of its more successful predecessor, The King's Speech, to come close to the 2010 film's success.

 

 

 

 

'Act of Valor' shines during Academy Awards weekend

As expected, The Artist landed the Best Picture Oscar this Sunday at the Academy Awards. The silent era-set tale has earned $31.8 million to date. In comparison, the middling war-action picture Act of Valor attracted more moviegoers than expected and earned $24.7 million, an amount it took The Artist three months to reach. Act of Valor's primarily male audience gave the war flick its version of a statuette--an "A" exit rating.

The disparity between art films beloved by critics and the Academy and commercial films is once again in full relief. In 2009 and 2010, the first years allowing ten Best Picture nominees (since 1943), half the movies had earned $100 million--and still others were close to that figure. This year, only The Help has topped $100 million, with $169 million in total. The next runner-up is War Horse, with a mere $79 million.

Of course, there's still time for some movies to make more money. The Artist will expand into 2,000 theatres this weekend. Still, expectations should be modest. Last year, The King's Speech had the most momentum after its nomination. It earned only 15% of its total after it actually won. Part of the reason the Academy expanded the number of Best Picture nominees was to include a mix of art films and those that performed well at the box office. It was hoped that very little and very big films might be included more frequently. This past year had no Inception, no Avatar, no The Blind Side. Without a blockbuster or crossover success in the running, the awards don't have as much appeal to general audiences. No wonder I heard many people--casual and more serious moviegoers--complain about the irrelevance of this year's Oscars. Although the ceremony included many people from more recognizable movies--like the cast of Bridesmaids, who presented awards--the awards themselves honored movies many people didn't and/or won't see. It's too bad there wasn't a well-regarded action picture in the running. True to the Academy's safe choices, an edgy movie like Drive can only get into the contest with a roundabout nomination, like its nod in Sound Editing.

Perhaps due in part to the lower-profile Oscar ceremony, box office as a whole was up from last year. After Act of Valor, Tyler Perry's Good Deeds suffered from the absence of Madea and brought in just $16 million. Down in eighth and ninth place, Wanderlust and Gone did even worse. The Paul Rudd/Jennifer Aniston comedy tallied up just $6.6 million, despite a 60% approval rating on Rotten Tomatoes. It may fall under the "rent it" category for many viewers.  Gone likewise didn't connect with audiences, which gave it just a C+ in exit polls. The Amanda Seyfried kidnapping thriller finished with just $5 million.

A number of Oscar nominees posted gains this weekend. Best Foreign Language Film winner A Separation went up 36% to earn $423,000. Foreign Language nominee In Darkness received a 10% boost, grossing $91,000. Bullhead, which was nominated in the same category, posted a 28% gain for a total of $41,000. My Week with Marilyn expanded slightly and posted a 58% gain to $313,000. The Artist, which earned five wins, went up 23% to $3 million.

This Friday, Oscar winner The Artist will go big in an attempt to capitalize on its win. It will be joined by Dr. Seuss adaptation The Lorax and the one-crazy-party teen comedy Project X.

Oscar talking points: What you need to know about all the big categories

The Oscars are on Sunday. After months of lead-up awards ceremonies and over two months after the end of 2011, the Academy will finally crown its winners. Here's what you need to know in order to make your Oscar predictions and slip in a knowing comment or two.

If The Artist doesn't win Best Picture, it will be a huge upset.
Silent, black & white The Artist has wooed nearly everyone who's been convinced to see it. Critics have embraced the movie, and it has already won several major awards, including Best Picture at the Golden Globes and BAFTA. It also won Best Director for Michel Hazanavicius at the Directors Guild of America awards, a category that strongly correlates with Oscar wins. Besides Best Picture, The Artist could also pull out a win for Best Director (and by extension, Best Editing, which often goes along with Best Director). If it wins those categories, which occur earlier in the ceremony, a Best Picture win is a lock. My dark horse pick is The Descendants, which won Best Drama at the Globes.

Streep will get a "career" Oscar
Giving Meryl Streep an Oscar is a bit of a sentimental pick that rewards her for all her previous work rather than her current film. The first four times she was nominated at the Oscars, she won twice (for Kramer vs. Kramer and Sophie's Choice). Since then, she's been nominated another thirteen times without winning once. Streep may have embodied Margaret Thatcher in The Iron Lady, but the movie itself was so-so. This time, that shouldn't stop her from winning an Oscar.

Best Actor is a toss-up
Jean Dujardin is an unknown in the United States but he performed in the most lauded movie of the year. George Clooney did what he does best under the estimable direction of Alexander Payne in The Descendants. Both won in their respective comedy/drama categories for the Globes. Will star power win, or will Dujardin's silent acting in the most-lauded movie of the year win out? This category is one of the closest.

Most likely to make a teary speech: Octavia Spencer
When Spencer won for her performance in The Help in the Golden Globes, her speech was the best of the night. If she wins Best Supporting Actress on Sunday, I'm sure she'll bring the house down. She's one of the few people who has only just tasted fame and will be in awe and oh-so grateful for the honor. I'll have my fingers crossed for her.

Could Woody Allen show up?
When Allen won Best Screenplay for Midnight in Paris at the Golden Globes, he didn't show. He's only attended the Oscars once, when he pleaded for producers to continue shooting movies in NYC after 9/11. It's unlikely he'll don a tux and put in an appearance, but if he does it'll be legendary. Seeing how the presenters handle his absence will also be an evaluation of their gracefulness. In the Adapted Screenplay category, I'm picking The Descendants.

Make sure you set your DVRs for the ceremony this Sunday. In case you need to print out an Oscar ballot, check out this pdf.

And to hear a podcast about the Academy Awards featuring FJI contributor Jon Frosch, click here.

Rooney Mara cast in Steven Soderbergh's 'Side Effects'

Didn't director Steven Soderbergh say he was retiring? In March he announced he was done with it all, but then in September he backtracked and said something about a sabbatical. I'm not exactly sure when that would take place. Soderbergh's one of the most prolific directors in Hollywood. Contagion came out in September, and Haywire in January--both to critical success. He has yet another film completed, Magic Mike, and now he's cast Rooney Mara in his next project, Side Effects.

Mara will play the wife of a man who is about to be released from prison. She's taking large amounts of depression and anxiety pills to cope with her feelings surrounding his release. There's also going to be a bit of a love triangle between Mara's character, her husband, and her doctor. Mara actually replaces Blake Lively, who IMDB suggests was a second choice to begin with. I'm curious how this role will tweak Mara's star image. After playing a regular college girl in The Social Network, Mara's looks went to extremes for her role as the Swedish punk hacker in The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo. The look has been maintained for her publicity tours. She's currently on the cover of Vanity Fair's Young Hollywood with a vampy look--a severe bob, dark lipstick, and piercing expression. I'm not sure what look she'll go for with Side Effects, but it probably will be more natural. That's a good thing. I won't miss seeing her without those weird blunt-cut, jet-black bangs.

Channing Tatum, Jude Law, and Catherine Zeta-Jones round out the cast. That means that Tatum must be the prisoner, and Law the doctor. I really can't imagine it any other way. Soderbergh's frequent collaborator, Scott Z. Burns, wrote the screenplay and will produce. Knowing Soderbergh's lightning-fast schedule, the drama will shoot this year and release the next. Maybe all that talk of retiring fired Soderbergh up, because after the uneven The Informant! he's had a couple of winners, Contagion and Haywire, at least in my book.

As for Mara, IMDB's currently ranking her #1 on its StarMeter. She's just been nominated for an Oscar for Best Actress. She may be one of my favorite up-and-comers. Her lead in Side Effeccts will certainly be the first of many roles she'll be cast in as she cashes in on her success.

What will it mean to have between 5-10 Best Picture Oscar nominees?

By Sarah Sluis

Just two years ago, the Academy mixed it up by announcing that it will expand the number of Best Pictures nominees from five to ten. Now it's modifying its decision, allowing for at least five but no more than ten nominees. In order to receive a nomination, the movie must be the first pick of at least 5% of Academy voters. This will change the Oscar game, primarily for the good.

1. Everyone at the table deserves a seat at the table. Looking back at the nominees for 2009 and 2010, I was pleased with the films that were nominated. Sure, there were some that weren't normally Oscar material--like District 9, teeny-tiny Winter's Bone, and 127 Hours, but for the most part that helped punch things up. Under the new rules, we'll know that any film that's nominated got at least 5% of the vote. There won't be speculation that a movie like 127 Hours, The Blind Side or even Up made it just because they needed ten nominees. I hope this means some of the smaller indies that received nominations, like A Serious Man, Winter's Bone, and The Kids Are All Right, won't entirely disappear from the running.

2. Recognizing there can be more than five good films a year. Everyone in Hollywood wants another 1939, widely considered one of the strongest movie years on record. In that year, for example, I've seen six of the ten Best Pictures nominees, compared to a couple in the years directly before and after. But even in a year of several future classics, at least a few of the films didn't endure. According to the Academy's releases, there would have been anywhere from five to nine nominees in the years 2001-2008.

3. Getting rid of "snubbed" lists. One of the recurring Oscar-time features is the list of films, actors, and actresses that turned in classic performances that went unrecognized by the Academy. This can be a little embarrassing for the organization, especially when it exposes their biases (or "preferences," if you're feeling nice) for certain types of films. Of course, this doesn't guarantee that these types of films still won't be excluded from the running.

If they are, it will be even worse, since that means less than 5% of Academy members thought highly of the film. Some of the Academy's famous snubs include a number of Alfred Hitchcock films, including Vertigo, Psycho, and North by Northwest. Films that would become calling cards for directors, like Stanley Kubrick's 2001: A Space Odyssey, Billy Wilder's Some Like it Hot, Steven Spielberg's Close Encounters of the Third Kind, and Terrence Malick's Days of Heaven, were all excluded from the Best Picture race. The greatest musical of all time, Singin' in the Rain, also didn't make the cut.

I'm impressed that the Academy has changed the rules for such a significant part of their awards. To do it two times in just three years is even more eyebrow-raising. The Academy was willing to admit that the ten-nominee system wasn't working out according to their expectations. We may be far from Oscar season, but the most exciting part of this year's Oscars may be January 24th, when we find out which films, and how many, were nominated after the Academy's tweaking.

'Warrior's Way,' 'Black Swan' open in field of strong returnees

By Sarah Sluis

During the week after Thanksgiving, the box office usually takes a dip. This week sees just one new wide release and a tempting heap of leftovers.

The kung-fu western Warrior's Way (1,622 theatres) has all the makings of a flop: a $42 million production budget against a projected $5 million gross, and no advance reviews--a bad sign. The film centers on an Asian warrior who uproots himself and moves to the American badlands. The Korean star Jang Dong Dun toplines alongside Kate Bosworth and Geoffrey Rush, but this East-West hybrid shows little sign of catching on.

The returning films Tangled and Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part I shouldgrab the two top spots for a second week. Harry Potter has been slightly ahead of Tangled during this week's box office race, but Tangled's family-friendly appeal may put it in first place, especially since many Potter fans insisted on seeing the film opening weekend.

Director Darren Aronofsky's follow-up to The Wrestler, Black Swan (18 theatres), features Natalie Portman as a dancer undergoing a similar brutalization of the body as she's pushed to her psychological limit during a production of Swan Lake. Critic David Noh called the drama "more horror than ballet film." For a self-proclaimed lover of dance films, the "cheap" choreography and star Natalie Portman's hard-to-watch transformation results in "an over-the-top mess whose mounting absurdity and violence become a thorough audience punishment." This very brutalization has Oscar prognosticators betting that Portman will receive a nomination for the tough role.

The much-delayed I Love You, Phillip Morris (6 theatres) finally opens in theatres. Jim Carrey stars as a gay con man in love, "his bravest performance yet," according to Noh. All Good Things (2 theatres) based on the true story of a real estate tycoon who probably murdered his wife, stars Ryan Gosling and Kirsten Dunst and received critic Doris Toumarkine's approval: she called it a "terrific fact-based drama." Rounding out the bunch of specialty releases, the period drama Night Catches Us (4 theatres) stars Anthony Mackie as a former Black Panther suspected of talking to the cops. When he returns to Philadelphia, he sparks a romance with an old friend (Kerry Washington).

On Monday, we'll circle back to see if audiences found room for more films in the post-Thanksgiving pile of leftovers and tantalizing new indies.

'Winter's Bone' leads Gotham Independent Nominations

By Sarah Sluis

The Gotham Independent Film Awards released their nominations, and with three nods, Winter's Bone leads the pack. The film now occupies the place in the awards arena that The Hurt Locker held last year Of course, that's no guarantee that the movie will end up gleanding the most awards, as The Hurt Locker did, but it has well-positioned Winter's Bone for the awards season.

While the Gotham Independent Awards stays close to its mission and really does reward movies with small budgets and under-the-radar followings, its picks occasionally appear in that holy grail of awards ceremonies, the Oscars (besides The Hurt Locker, Capote and Sideways have ended up with Oscar nods for Best Picture).

Winter's Bone has the best chance of securing the following Academy Award nominations: Best Actress for newcomer Jennifer Lawrence (though she doesn't have nearly the amount of momentum as last year's ingnue nominee, Carey Mulligan), and Best Film. With ten nominees for the top film, the drama has a definite chance of squeezing in.

Then there's the subject matter. Winter's Bone is the anti-Blind Side. It's a "flyover state" movie without the sentimentality. Its depressing realism makes the based-on-a-true-story The Blind Side seem like a fairy tale. Jennifer Lawrence plays a young woman whose father has skipped bail after putting the family house on the line as collateral. She journeys through a meth-riddled criminal world in a quest to find her father and save her home in the Ozarks. This is the kind of movie that can make L.A. and New York-based Oscar voters feel like they "know" or "get" the in-between states. In the name of cross-geographical understanding, who wouldn't want to vote for this film?

I'm putting Winter's Bone back in my list of contenders. So far, many of the awards-seeking movies have failed to top Winter's Bone, and I'm rooting for this quiet underdog. Here's hoping Roadside Attractions can mount a campaign for it.

2010 Oscars favor 'The Hurt Locker' over 'Avatar'

By Sarah Sluis

This weekend was a crazy one for Hollywood, both at the box office and at the Oscars. On Sunday's Oscar ceremony, The Hurt Locker won Best Picture over Avatar, its only real competition. And Alice in Wonderland kicked off the weekend by bulldozing over Avatar's opening three-day gross, earning $116.3 million, a whopping 50% more than Avatar's first-weekend $77 million. Thanks to these two events, Hollywood's prominent, front-running 3D sci-fi spectacle got knocked down back to Earth--a little bit.

The Academy Awards themselves came and went without any major surprises. Most of the whispered favorites in the blogosphere ended up going on to win the awards. With my ear firmly placed to the ground, this blogger was able to correctly pick all the acting categories, director, and picture, along with other talked-about categories like Original Score and Adapted Screenplay. Sure, it required a bit of luck, but also that oft-repeated phrase that "Hollywood likes a good story." That's part of the reason Kathryn Bigelow ("The first woman!!!") won Best Director. To make the award mean more, it seems right to follow it up with Best Picture, no? James Cameron already had his go at being "King of the World," and the Academy wanted to give someone else a turn.

That mood was extended to three of the four acting categories. Christoph Waltz, the winner of Best Supporting Actor, seemed to be the only person whose win was a story of performance alone. Mo'Nique also turned in a great performance, but her victory also seemed to be about coming into the Hollywood family, learning a bit about how the game works while at the same time refusing to play it, since she came under a lot of criticism early in awards season for skipping ceremonies and supposedly requesting appearance fees. In her speech, she opened by saying "First of all I would like to thank the Academy, for showing that it can be about the performance, and not the politics." Okay, but isn't an explicitly "unpolitical" choice making its own kind of anti-statement? Now I'm just running my head round in circles...

Sandra Bullock and Jeff Bridges both won versions of the "It's their time" informal lifetime achievement award--but that didn't mean everyone didn't feel all warm and fuzzy to see these stars finally recognized. Following Mo'Nique, Bullock went right out and acknowledged the motives behind her own win, starting with "Did I really earn this or did I just wear y'all down?" Since Bullock is primarily a comedic actress, and will be unlikely to receive such an opportunity again, it was nice to see this talented performer win for a body of work that includes goofy, non-Oscar films like Miss Congeniality. Bridges, who won on his fifth nomination, was also a pleasure to see on the podium. He called his profession "groovy" (Is he actually like his Big Lebowski character The Dude?) and thanked his wife profusely. Shockingly, by Hollywood standards, they have been married over thirty years. She looked, horror of horrors, like a fifty-year-old woman, and seeing how Bridges has remained true to his roots and first love made me appreciate the actor even more.

To cap off the ceremony, The Hurt Locker won Best Director (which James Cameron claimed not to want) and Best Picture (which James Cameron wanted). I can't wrap my head around how little money The Hurt Locker has made. How can a war movie, an action movie, about bomb diffusers make less in total ($14.7 million) than one Saturday night of Avatar's run? I hope this movie is making a killing in the DVD market, and earned a pretty penny for television rights, but its theatrical release was a disappointment. What's weirder, the movie was a really slow burn. Last year it received just two acting nominations at the Independent Spirit Awards, and won zero. However, given the movie's June release (a rarity for Oscar nominees, let alone winners), maybe a low box office was the price they had to pay for the visibility of being the only awards-worthy movie released that month. As the lowest-grossing movie (pretty much ever) to win the Best Picture Oscar, this movie was propelled by critical word-of-mouth and industry viewings. Now it's a matter of having the rest of the U.S. catch up. Its re-release into theatres this weekend earned it about $400k, and I sincerely hope moviegoers will purchase at least another million bucks in tickets next weekend.

Predicting the Oscars: Bigelow vs. Cameron

By Sarah Sluis

Right now, the race for the Best Director at the Oscars (this Sunday!) has narrowed down to two front runners: James Cameron and Kathryn Bigelow. Formerly husband and wife, a relationship they refuse to turn into any kind of rivalry, the duo have both won their fair share of awards leading up to the event. Bigelow won the Directors Guild Award (the first woman to do so), an award that has correctly predicted the Oscar win all but six times since 1948. Cameron won the high-profile Golden Globe award for Best Director, but that has correlated only 60% of the time with the Oscar win. Based on that information alone, anyone but Bigelow winning will be an upset.

Even Cameron seems to want Bigelow to win--as long as Avatar gets Best Picture. On both "60 Minutes" (clipped here) and "Charlie Rose" (clipped here), Cameron has rooted for Bigelow in the hopes that the grand prize of Best Picture will go to Avatar and not The Hurt Locker. It's kind of a weird strategy, making him seem magnanimous while at the same time publicly giving up a less valuable award as a way to gun for the big one. While I loved Avatar, I think this commentator gets something right: the story is not original at all. It's well done, but not original. When your movie draws comparisons to Fern Gully: The Last Rainforest, and not just old legends like Pocahontas, that shows that you didn't transcend the age-old story but merely offered another iteration of it. Every movie has a flaw, and this is Avatar's biggest one.

Awards time also leads to lots of potential "firsts." Bigelow would be the first female director to win. Cameron would be the first person to win for back-to-back directing projects. Lee Daniels would be the first black person to win the Best Director award. However, his lack of other prominent "Best Director" awards puts him out of the running. So when it comes to Oscar pool time, here's my recommendation: pick Bigelow for Best Director, and Cameron if you want to go for the dark horse.

'Dear John,' 'From Paris with Love' provide alternatives to the Super Bowl

By Sarah Sluis

Take out your seven-layer dip, it's Super Bowl weekend, when people forgo popcorn for hot wings around a 60-inch screen. On Sunday, movie ticket sales drop precipitously as TV ratings go sky-high. Replicating a formula from last year, studios are releasing both a female-oriented romance expected to play through the weekend, as well as an action movie to catch males Friday and Saturday before most settle in for the big game.

Dear John (2,969 theatres) "falls in the upper middle range" of Nicolas Sparks adaptations, according to New York Times critic A.O. Scott. Amanda Seyfried plays a goody-two-shoes who falls for a rough solider (Channing Tatum). They correspond for his year-long deployment, but then 9/11 happens, he re-enlists, and the romance suffers. Slate critic Dana Stevens, who wrote her review in the form of a Dear John letter, voices one of Seyfried's Little Ms. Perfect dilemnas: "Would I be able to organize enough fundraisers to keep him alive and one day realize my dream of opening a horseback-riding camp for autistic children?" With a built-in fan base of Nicolas Sparks readers, Dear John should make a sizeable sum at the box office this weekend.

From Paris with Love (2,722 theatres) releases exactly a year after director Pierre Morel's smash hit Taken. Though the movie tries to replicate the successful elements of the first movie, it doesn't quite work, according to FJI critic Daniel Eagan. Using that familiar veteran/rookie pair-up (played by John Travolta and Jonathan Rhys Meyers, respectively), "the Travolta part...is played for laughs, while the rest pretends to deal seriously with matters of love and trust," leading to an inconsistent tone.

Not to be confused with District 9, District 13: Ultimatum, the sequel to District B13, will open in nine theatres. Director Luc Besson's action thriller "aims to please and nails its targets with more speed and style than most of its higher-priced competition," according to Eagan.

Taking advantage of the buzz generated at its Sundance debut, Frozen will open in 106 theatres. The Open Water-esque premise has three skiers stranded on a ski lift for a weekend. Unfortunately, the thriller is unable to "create a self-enclosed world that allows the audience to suspend disbelief," according to critic James Greenberg. Horror movies really need to solve that cell phone problem.

With the Oscar nominations released this Tuesday, four of the nominated films will expand their runs. The Hurt Locker, which is already out on DVD, will move onto 110 screens. Precious will go from 222 to 669 theatres. Crazy Heart will ramp up its release, going from 239 theatres to 819. An Education, which had dwindled to just a four-theatre run from 200 screens, will expand to 760 theatres this weekend. Adding something new to the mix, Oscar-nominated documentary The Most Dangerous Man in America: Daniel Ellsberg and the Pentagon Papers will debut on two screens.

Of course, despite all these new offerings and Oscar-related expansions, Avatar is expected to win the box office for the eighth week in a row, with added interest due to its nine Oscar nominations.

Academy's expanded Best Picture category rewards 'top 10' films

By Sarah Sluis

When the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences announced that it was expanding the number of Best Picture nominees from five to ten, most people speculated two things would happen: 1) crowd-pleasing, high-grossing movies would receive nominations. 2) smaller, independent movies would receive nominations. Well, the answers are in: the first thing happened, and the second not so much.

Three of the ten Oscar nominees for Best Picture were in the 2009 box-office top ten. Avatar is currently #1 for 2009, Up is #4, and The Blind Side is #8. If any movie was a long shot for Best Picture, The Blind Side was it. Many critics would have preferred to see Bright Star, a tiny but well-reviewed film, in that spot.

The last time a top ten film was even nominated was at the 76th Academy Awards, when Lord of the Rings: Return of the King (the #1 film of the year) swept the awards in Titanic-like fashion. That means that before this year, five years passed where no movie in the top ten received a Best Picture nomination. If the goal of expanding the number of nominees is to boost ratings and make more average, non-eclectic moviegoers feel the Academy Awards reflect their own "Best Films," it appears the Academy has succeeded.

That's not to say these movies are bad or don't deserve to be nominated. Last year seemed to be a particularly strong one for blockbusters. I'm right there with Avatar and Up. District 9 (#27) was good, but it didn't make my top ten and I don't think it's quite original enough (beyond its opening sequence) to deserve the nomination. But with a heavy-handed look at racism a la Crash, I guess I shouldn't be surprised it was nominated.

On the other hand, movies at the other end of the spectrum haven't entirely been neglected. The Hurt Locker (#130), A Serious Man (#142) and An Education (#144) all received nominations. Last year, the lowest-ranked film was #120 (Frost/Nixon), so not only are these films a bit lower on the list, there are also three of them instead of the expected two you would get when you double the amount of nominees.

Overall, I think the inclusion of ten nominees better reflects the amount of quality movies out there, and does allow for more commercial (to a greater extent) or more specialized (to a lesser extent) films to receive nominations. At least when a so-so movie squeezes in, there are nine, instead of four, other movies there to balance it out.