'Lawless' and 'Oogieloves' close out the summer

Leading the box office is the chiller The Possession (2,816 theatres), a "Jewish-themed Exorcist" with "cheap scares." THR's Frank Scheck cheekily predicts that "if nothing else," it should "discourage the practice of buying antique wooden boxes at flea markets." A nice teen-million debut
should be in store for the movie, which hopefully has better luck than The Apparition, which opened last weekend to a lackluster $2.8 million.

The Oogieloves in the Big Balloon Adventure will be competing for the title of biggest flop this weekend. The movie, which targets kids from ages 3-5, opened to a shockingly low $47 per-screen average on Wednesday. The release on 2,160 screens is way too big for this kind of movie. It will probably earn something in the $5 million
range over the four-day weekend. That's still a pittance compared to the $55 million marketing and production budget. How does a movie featuring nobodies in costumes cost that much money? I'm seriously confused about this tot-centered picture, though I bet it will do well in the home video market, where parents can let their kids watch the movie in the other room without being forced to devote their whole attention to content that's way above them.

The uber-violent Lawless (2,565 theatres), which opened on Wednesday to $1.1 million, should end up in the teen millions. With the popularity of "Boardwalk Empire," I was excited to see another Prohibition-set movie, but I found
the shoot and knife 'em ups to be unnecessarily gruesome. FJI's Daniel Eagan faults the "glum, pompous drama," and also notes there are far better TV shows (he mentions "Breaking Bad" and "Justified") that elicit more powerful reactions in viewers.

Also not to be overlooked is 2016: Obama's America. The political doc has earned $12.3 million to date, $10 million of which came after last Friday's expansion. Most trackers aren't used to predicting a movie with these kinds of demographics, so another big weekend could be in store for the conservative movie.

To lure infrequent moviegoers who may not be caught up on this summer's blockbusters (or who want to see them again), Disney is expanding the releases of The Avengers and Brave. The superhero movie will play in 1,700 theatres, up from 123. Brave will also move into 1,700 theatres, from 423 locations.

For a Good Time, Call... (23 theatres) is the tale of two enemies-turned-friends who start a
phone-sex line business in their apartment. It sounds raunchy, but it's actually a surprisingly engaging story of twentysomething female friendship (with some sex-toy sight gags thrown in). FJI's David Noh agrees, dubbing the "carefree and affectionate" movie a "rather winning little female-fueled comedy." Ari Graynor is particularly sharp in her role, in a rare upgrade from the supporting roles she usually plays.

On Tuesday, we'll give a rundown of how everything did in what's usually one of the slowest holiday periods for the box office.

'Hop' poised to jump straight to the top

By Sarah Sluis

Releasing well in advance of the Easter holiday, Hop will spring into 3,577 theatres and shows all signs of landing in first place. Critic Frank Lovece rated it a "Santa Clause 2.6," which is pretty close to the terrible Santa Clause 3. He also bristled at the movie's message of nepotism, since a lazy heir triumphs over the underdog hard worker. The film's mix of live action and CG historically results in a very kid-specific following, with poor reviews having no effect on the great box office (See director Tim Hill's Garfield: A Tail of Two Kitties and Alvin and the Chipmunks 1&2). Hop should accrue at least $25 million in its opening weekend.

In retrospect, it's surprising someone didn't turn Groundhog's Day into an action film sooner. In Source Code (2,961 theatres), Jake Gyllenhaal plays an army operative who must relive over and over the final minutes before a terrorist attack explodes a train. The exercise is supposed to give him time to figure out what went wrong, but he also finds time to fall in love with a girl, too. Could love save the day? Critic Maitland McDonagh pronounces the sci-fi actioner a "good ride" that's "slick, shiny, sweetly gratifying and clever enough that you don't have to feel dumb for enjoying it." Adult fare has been lacking in recent weeks, so Source Code should do well, perhaps in the high teen millions.

An F-word free The King's Speech will make its PG-13 debut in 1,011 theatres. Will the change in rating make much of a difference? I haven't seen any ads proclaiming the movie's toned-down rating, but maybe I'm just the wrong audience. Currently, the Oscar-winning drama is hovering just outside of the top ten, so the rating change and added marketing could be enough to launch it back onto the box-office radar screen.

A back-to-basics haunted-house movie, Insidious (2,408 theatres) comes from Saw creators James Wan and Leigh Whannell. Their "trust in human emotion" and focus on "two ordinary parents [taking] their stand against God only knows to save their child" pays off, according to McDonagh. Though it's not a perfect example of the haunted-house film, she gives the duo credit for "keeping the atmosphere thick with menace as long as they do."

The Oscar winner for Best Foreign Language Film, In a Better World, will open in 4 theatres. The drama juxtaposes violence among Danish schoolboys with violence in Kenya, which critic Erica Abeel sums up as "a deeply involving film unafraid of raw, visceral emotion, a film that for once thinks almost too big."

On Monday, we'll measure Hop's leaps and see how close Source Code followed. Insidious may surprise, given horror films' strong opening weekends, and it will also be the first test for newbie distributor FilmDistrict. Perhaps the biggest surprise will be The King's Speech, which has already grossed $138 million with its R rating. Are there any more viewers out there?

Disney's got a date for 'Prom'

By Sarah Sluis

Yesterday, the blogosphere was circulating with the news that Disney had passed on The Proposal 2, despite the fact that the original movie made over $300 million worldwide while costing just $40 million. The supposed reason? Not enough merchandising.

Today, Disney announced that a project developed under previous production head Oren Aviv has been put back on track. Entitled Prom, the movie would follow around nine teenagers as they prepare for the big event. The ensemble focus makes it seem like a teen version of Valentine's Day, but the studio is hoping the young, high school focus will replicate the success of High School Musical. The financial hook for the movie includes a low, low budget, in the neighborhood of $5-10 million, and a cast of unknowns. As in High School Musical, the studio hopes to launch some new stars. Disney, along with Nickelodeon, is a clearinghouse for young stars that it likes to shepherd into fame. If Disney writes a clause in a contract that calls for a sequel or an option to appear in a subsequent film, it could lock in an actor that becomes a star through his/her appearance in Prom, most likely at a lower rate.

Although a teen romance may not seem like the biggest opportunity for merchandising, Google proved me wrong. The High School Musical franchise has fleece blankets, Barbie knock-offs, life-size photos/standees, logo wristbands, pens, hair products, Christmas stockings, hair ties, calendars, toothbrushes, a "four-piece study kit" (a.k.a. pencil pouch, sharpener, eraser and ruler), umbrellas, board games--a child could have an entire room full of High School Musical merchandise.

The one snag to this film in my mind is a theatrical release. The High School Musical movies were able to build a huge following because they were constantly played on the Disney Channel. Because it was a musical (which this movie will not be), it encouraged repeat viewings as kids interacted with the movie, trying to learn the songs and dances that went along with it. While Disney has incredible access and experience with the teen market, launching a movie without any stars will be challenging--but one that Disney is the most equipped to handle. And with a $5-10 million investment, there's not much to lose.

Oscar-nominated films expand alongside 'Inkheart' & 'Underworld' sequel

By Sarah Sluis

Oscar nominations were announced yesterday, giving the non-film-obsessed a month to head to their

local theatres and squeeze in a film or two to make the whole Oscar broadcast more entertaining. Studios, of course, try to predict what films will receive nominations, and expand or resurrect the films accordingly.

Since expansions must be planned weeks in advance, it's easy to tell what films met (and failed) a studio's expectations. Revolutionary Road, which expands to 1,058 screens, is the big loser here, earning only one major nomination: Supporting Actor for Michael Shannon as a mentally ill mathematician (hey, it worked for Russell Crowe in A Beautiful Mind), and two minor nods for art direction and costume design, a gimme for any period film. Turns out just like April and Frank Wheeler, Revolutionary Road thought it was more special than it really was.

Universal also planned a big post-Oscar expansion for Frost/Nixon, which will release on 1,097 screens, and up until now has done pretty light business. Fox Searchlight is expanding The Wrestler (566 screens) and Slumdog Millionaire (1,411 screens). Mickey Rourke and Marisa Tomei both received nominations for The Wrestler, making this film well-worth its expansion. Searchlight has done a controlled, slow rollout of Slumdog (and earlier actually had to scale up their planned expansion to meet demand), so this expansion caps an extremely well-executed release.

October's Rachel Getting Married, which Sony Pictures Classics hoped would receive a Best Actress nomination for Anne Hathaway (it did!), will show up on 345 screens, although without an accompanying nomination for screenwriter Jenny Lumet. The Dark Knight will also appear on 350 screens, giving audiences one more chance to see Supporting Actor nominee Heath Ledger in IMAX. The most nominated film, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, will continue its wide release but will likely see a significant boost in business.

For those with an elementary school child in tow and a brain ready to mentally prepare grocery lists, take your child to see Inkheart (2,655 screens). It's muddled, confusing, poorly executed, but, at the very

least, will inspire you to imagine all the ways this film could have been so much better. Fans of horror film Underworld can rejoice in sequel Underworld: Rise of the Lycans (2,942 screens). Just a guess, but those that don't know exactly what "Rise of the Lycans" means should probably stay away, and catch one of those films the Academy has deemed likely-to-be-the-best.

Other films playing on just a few screens this weekend include a worn Jack the Ripper/Hitchcock remake The Lodger, horror-movie-on-a-boat Donkey Punch, and Terence Davies' documentary Of Time and the City.