DGA nominees hint at who will receive Oscar nods

By Sarah Sluis

Yesterday, the Directors Guild of America announced its five nominees for Best Director. As opposed to the Screen Actors Guild (SAG), Writers Guild (WGA), and Producers Guild (PGA), the DGA awards have a track record of predicting the winner of the Oscar for Best Director. Since the Best Director victor frequently helms the Best Picture, one can reasonably assume that among these five films, we have our Best Picture winner, and probably at least five of the nominees.

DGA nominees:
Woody Allen for Midnight in Paris
David Fincher for The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Michel Hazanavicius for The Artist
Alexander Payne for The Descendants
Martin Scorsese for Hugo

The biggest shut-outs are War Horse and The Help. The DGA has already honored Steven Spielberg three times: for The Color Purple in 1985, Saving Private Ryan in 1998, and with a (preemptive, perhaps) Lifetime Achievement Award in 2000. Maybe they just want some new blood in the running. Spielberg has more Oscar-worthy projects in development, like a biopic of Lincoln, and War Horse was a wee sentimental.

The Help received its biggest support from the SAG, which makes sense. Director Tate Taylor has an acting background himself, meaning he has plenty of connections within the guild. It's only amplified by the large ensemble of actors who appeared in the movie. The Help will definitely receive a Best Picture nod, and certainly a few acting ones as well, but the new director slot went to Hazanavicius instead of him.

When it comes to who actually wins the award, history matters. Both Allen and Scorsese have been honored by the DGA, both for an individual film and with a Lifetime Achievement Award. Will Hugo or Midnight in Paris merit an additional honor? As a newbie, I doubt Hazanavicius will win. I think it comes down to Payne or Fincher, neither of whom has won before. Both have great track records and each of their films exemplify the work the helmers are known for. Payne specializes in the mix between comedy and drama, with sad-sack heroes that somehow endear themselves to the audience. Fincher is probably the most technically brilliant directors out there. None of the dark films he specializes in look like they use extensive special effects, but they do, and YouTube videos like this and this sold me on the kind of detailed planning and creative control Fincher exercises. I'm betting on Payne or Fincher.

On January 28, in less than three weeks, the DGA will announce the winner of their award--and make the outcome of the Oscars a little bit easier to divine.