'Underworld' expected to outperform 'Red Tails,' 'Haywire'

The fourth installment in the Underworld series, Underworld: Awakening (3,078 theatres) is expected to lead the weekend box office with an opening in the low $20 million range. Kate Beckinsale stars as a vampire "warrioress" in the action-horror sequel, which did not screen in advance for critics.

My recommendation for female-driven action this weekend is Haywire (2,439 theatres), which will definitely be the best film I'll see in January. Mixed martial arts fighter Gina Carno stars as a contract worker for the CIA who's double-crossed by her colleagues. In the extremely realistic fight scenes, she'll literally be picked up and thrown around by her hulking male opponents, then somehow manage to overpower them. Director Steven Soderbergh really does a great job showing how she's outmatched in certain respects, but absolutely able to dominate in others. I left the theatre with a huge smile on my face, a pretty rare thing. This is definitely an action movie for those who are pretty selective about their action movies, in part thanks to the great direction by Steven Soderbergh. The critical community as a whole gave the spy-action pic an 82% positive Rotten Tomatoes rating. Despite these enthusiastic responses, an opening weekend of just $8-10 million is expected. That's too bad, and I hope word-of-mouth gives this movie the number of eyes it deserves.

George Lucas shepherded Red Tails (2,512 theatres) through 23 years of development, funding it himself when Hollywood studios refused to finance a movie with an all-black cast. The WWII-set tale focuses on the Tuskegee airmen, a group of black male fighter pilots who fought the Nazis abroad and prejudice back home. Critic Doris Toumarkine admits the plotting is "formulaic," but lauds the actioner for its "solid entertainment and sensational special effects," as well as its coverage of the "civil-rights struggle" of the time. Red Tails is expected to be neck-and-neck with Haywire, with both coming close to $10 million. I think at least one of these could be a surprise overperformer.

On the heels of its Golden Globe win for Best Comedy, The Artist is expanding into 662 theatres. But will patrons demand refunds, as those in the U.K. did, claiming they didn't know the retro-styled movie was silent?

Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close, which has quietly and successfully been in release for a month in six locations, will go wide to 2,660 theatres. Critics are divided, with exactly 50% on the positive side, and the other half giving it a thumbs-down.  67% of Rotten Tomatoes commenters liked the movie. I'm curious how the nation as a whole will respond to the post-9/11 drama.

On Monday, we'll see if audiences went with the heroine of Haywire or Underworld, if Red Tails can attract audiences of every color, and if The Artist and Extremely Loud can successfully scale their release.