‘Furnace’ to fall behind ‘Frozen’ & ‘Fire’

The weekend after Thanksgiving is typically a quiet one for the nation’s box office, and this year, only one new release is opening wide. That would be Out of the Furnace, a gritty, bleak revenge drama starring the gritty, bleak Batman, Christian Bale, as well as Casey Affleck, Zoe Saldana, and Woody Harrelson. Expectations aren’t quite as dour as the film’s subject matter, location and production stills, but they’re not overly hopeful. To compare, Killing Them Softly was in the same position this time last year, as a new release bowing after the holiday weekend. It boasted a big movie star, Brad Pitt, but failed to leverage the actor’s perceived wide appeal. Softly opened to $6.8 million. Furnace isn’t tracking great with critics, either, (52% rotten on infallible taste barometer Rotten Tomatoes), though it’ll likely fare better than Brad’s failed bet. Screening in 2,101 theatres, odds are, it’ll earn around $10 million.

That kind of haul would likely place it at No. 3, behind last weekend’s reigning champions Frozen and The Hunger Games: Catching Fire. General consensus has Games finally slipping from the top slot, to the gain of family friendly Frozen. This will be the action flick's third weekend in theatres, while Frozen, now in its sophomore outing, has youth and a bit more novelty on its side. Comparable franchise series Twilight and Harry Potter both experienced a significant downturn in sales over this same weekend, on average dropping about 60%. Games, however, has consistently done better business than either of its blockbuster peers, meaning its dip shouldn’t be quite as severe - probably about 50%. Both the princess and the provocateur (there’s a college term paper for you) should earn figures in the mid-to-high $30 million range, with Frozen gaining the edge.

Art-house aficionados have been edge-of-their-seats with anticipation over the new Coen brothers’ film, Inside Llewyn Davis, opening in four locations in LA and New York today.  The film, allegedly inspired by the experiences of folk singer Dave Van Ronk in 1960’s Greenwich Village, has been earning rave reviews (95% fresh on RT). Not to mention, its hooky, ridiculous protest song “Please Mr. Kennedy” has steadily been making its viral way into the hearts, and that part of your brain that’s like fly paper to a catchy tune, for a few days now. It doesn’t have the foot-tapping appeal of a “Man of Constant Sorrow,” from the brothers’ O Brother, Where Art Thou? But it does have “Girls” actor Adam Driver as a real-life space cowboy.  Between the siblings’ cachet, the film’s positive buzz, and the below clip, Davis should significantly out-earn its predecessor, A Serious Man, which opened to $41,890 in 2009.

 

Girl power propels Thanksgiving box office

Thanks to popular heroine Katniss Everdeen and a pair of sparring sisters, this year’s Thanksgiving weekend was the most lucrative on record. Hunger Games: Catching Fire continued to feed viewers’ appetite for action fare, love triangles, and watching Jennifer Lawrence drive both, earning an incredible $110 million over the five-day (Wednesday-Sunday) spread. Flying past Harry Potter and the Sorcerer’s Stone, which took in $82.4 million over the same period in 2001, Catching Fire is now the most successful film to have ever screened over the long Thanksgiving weekend.

Frozen, Catching Fire’s worthy challenger, set a record of its own these past several days. The Disney princess movie had the highest Thanksgiving opening of all time. It earned $93 million over Wednesday-Sunday night. Toy Story 2 previously held the record for most successful Thanksgiving debut, having opened to $80.1 million in 1999. Very loosely based on Hans Christian Andersen’s fairytale The Snow Queen (they both involve siblings and chilly Nordic weather), Frozen is now the top earner for Disney Animation Studios, way ahead of Tangled and that title’s 2010 Thanksgiving haul of $68.7 million.

It was mostly due to the efforts of the aforementioned, female-driven offerings that the holiday box office tallied out at $294 million, an uptick of 3 percent from last year’s $291 million. No other films came close to the weekend’s top two earners. In third place, Thor: The Dark World continued to do steady, if no longer stellar, business, drumming up $11 million in sales, a drop of 22 percent from last weekend. The Best Man Holiday took in $8.5 million, boosting its overall cume, after two-and-a-half weeks in theatres, to $63.4 million.

And then there are the rest of those films that had hoped to score big with a Turkey Day debut. None of them managed to lure audiences away from their tables and subsequent leftovers – or rather, from Catching Fire and Frozen. Homefront earned $9.8 million over the five-day period; Black Nativity, which was expected to lead the charge of smaller new releases, earned just $5 million; and Oldboy bombed with $1.25 million.

The Book Thief did fine business, clocking in at $4.85 million, though it’s unclear how successful the Nazi-era family film will continue to be in the weeks ahead. Philomena, which opened in 835 theatres, earned $4.6 million, with high expectations for further steady sales.

Can ‘Frozen’ cool ‘Fire’s’ streak?

This year’s Thanksgiving weekend is serving up a battle of the elements, as Frozen goes head-to-head with reigning champion, Catching Fire. (Which reminds us of these classic antagonists.) The Disney animated musical and latest princess movie opens wide in 3,742 theatres today. The film’s tracking strong on Rotten Tomatoes at 88% fresh, and boasts a megawatt cast of Broadway stars, including Wicked’s Idina Menzel, Jonathan Groff and Josh Gad, as well as Kristen Bell as spunky and motormouthed protagonist Anna. Already, Frozen is out-selling 2010’s Tangled in advance ticket sales. Expectations, as they generally are for Disney family fare, are high, with pundits seeing receipts in the $70 million range.

Odds are, however, Catching Fire will continue to light up the box office. The successful Hunger Games sequel and Lionsgate’s early Christmas present (to themselves) had earned $170 million domestically as of Monday. It’ll likely hold strong through the weekend. Where previous November blockbuster Twilight: Breaking Dawn Part II fell 69% over the holiday weekend, Catching Fire’s inevitable sophomore dip shouldn’t be more than 50, 55%.

Also hoping to wrangle a large slice of the holiday b.o. pie – or what’s left of it, anyway – Black Nativity, starring Jennifer Hudson, Forest Whitaker, and Angela Bassett; Homefront, with Jason Statham, James Franco, Winona Ryder, and Kate Bosworth; and Oldboy, Spike Lee’s Korean cult-movie remake starring Josh Brolin, are all bowing today. Nativity, targeted toward an African American audience and opening just as the Christmas season begins in earnest, should perform the best of the bunch with around $10 million. Neither Homefront nor Oldboy have garnered particularly favorable reviews, but they can both count on built-in audiences (Statham fans, original Oldboy fanboys) to show up, regardless of a grousing peanut gallery. With Homefront opening in 2,572 theatres, it’s expected to gross in the high single digits. At just 583 locations, Oldboy will likely reap around $3 million.

There aren’t any specialty releases opening today, but Philomena and The Book Thief will both expand. Judi Dench and Steve Coogan’s odd-couple drama will broaden its audience base as it goes from screening in four to 835 theatres. Thief will open in 1,234 locations across the country and, most likely, gross between $5 and $9 million.

Happy Thanksgiving!

 

Leftovers rule as 'Breaking Dawn,' 'Skyfall' and 'Lincoln' lead Thanksgiving box office

Despite three new wide releases, it was the returning films that led the Thanksgiving box office. The long holiday period still gave plenty of extra cushion to all the movies in theatres, which enjoyed five days of weekend-level returns. A thin offering  of new movies this coming weekend will allow the current releases plenty of time to run through their potential viewers.

The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn--Part 2 led for a second week with $43 million Friday to Sunday, giving it a total to date of $226 million. The event picture, which was the finale for the franchise, plummeted 70% from its first-week total. It will likely continue its decline next week.

In second place, Skyfall leveled its descent with $36 million, just a 12% decrease from last week. Over the five-day period, its receipts totaled $51 million. The James Bond film's three-week total is
$221 million, just behind Twilight. By next week, Bond will rise above the vampire romance and stay there. It's also the best-performing Bond movie of all time, well ahead of Quantum of Solace's $164 million total. Time to shake up a martini for Daniel Craig and director Sam Mendes.

Lincoln went up 19% from the previous week to post a $25 million weekend. Continued strength in its week-to-week performance should bring this historical picture above $100 million. That's great for a talky movie many considered a tough sell.

Rise of the Guardians had the best opening of any of the new releases, earning $24 million over the weekend and a five-day total of $32.6 million. That's on the low side of projections for
the CG-animated release. In comparison, Disney's Wreck-It Ralph earned $16.9 million while falling just 9% from the previous week. Wreck-It Ralph has much better reviews, and comes from a trusted brand name. That definitely hurt the debut of Guardians.

Life of Pi opened to $22 million, right on target for the Ang Lee-directed picture. Audiences turned out to see it in 3D, too, with two-thirds of ticket sales for glasses-wearing audiences. While the literary adaptation has received mixed reviews from critics, audiences gave it an "A-" in exit polls, a sign that the mildly spiritual picture will do well in word-of-mouth.

Red Dawn rallied from the three-year delay in its release to gross $14.6 million, a number that
rose to $22 million over the five-day period. FilmDistrict reported the South and military areas had the best turnout for the invasion-themed picture. However, with many other offerings in weeks to come, Red Dawn will have a quick sunset.

Specialty pictures big and small did well over the holiday. Silver Linings Playbook, expanding into 367 locations, earned a spot in the top ten, posting a $4.6 million weekend and an applause-worthy per-screen average of $12,500. Hitchcock, which centers on the making of Psycho, debuted to $301,000, and had an even higher per-screen average of $17,700. The awards hopeful Rust and Bone averaged $15,000 per screen at two
locations. The documentary The Central Park Five had a lower per-screen
average but a higher total, earning $11,300 per screen at three
locations.

This Friday, violence rules at the box office. The horror movie The Collection will go up against Killing Them Softly, which stars Brad Pitt as an enforcer tracking down a trio who robbed a Mafia-run card game.

'Four Christmases' cheers up box office

By Sarah Sluis

Hollywood had a lot to be thankful for this weekend.  Grossing 4% more than last year's Thanksgiving

weekend, the box office showed no signs of recession.  Holiday picture Four Christmases came in at number one with a $31.6 million gross, but with the top seven films each earning at least $10 million, there was plenty of holiday cheer to spread around.  Bolt actually increased its take 1% from last week, earning $26.5 million for the weekend and proving that families sidetracked by Twilight would come back to see a reliably entertaining Disney picture.

Twilight finished at number three with $26.3 million, dropping 62%.  The spike downward does not necessarily spell a swift demise for the picture.  With winter break coming up, teen fans who saw the film in the opening weekend will have the chance to come back for repeat viewings and spread the word among their less devoted friends.

Australia finished on the low side, earning $14.8 million for the three-day weekend and $20 million for the five-day total.  Despite tracking highly among women over 25, the picture did not skew strongly towards that demographic, attracting equal amounts of men and women, and only a slight (65%) skew in audiences over 25 (i.e. people went with their families).  If this film is truly drawing a Nights of Rodanthe-type crowd, who didn't have the time to see the movie because of their turkey-basting duties, Australia will stick around through the holiday season and cross at least $50 million.  Working against the film, however, is that this film already received a huge push from Oprah a few weeks back, giving it plenty of time to work up anticipation among a crowd that relies heavily on word-of-mouth to make their moviegoing decisions.  Next weekend, which will have an open schedule with plenty of room to pick up audience members, will determine the box-office playability of Baz Luhrman's romantic epic.

Among specialty releases, Milk and Slumdog Millionaire both wowed audiences and the box office.  Milk earned an astounding $38,375 per theatre ($52,627 for the five-day holiday) in its debut, and third-weeker Slumdog's $27,890 per theatre prompted Fox Searchlight to announce that the film will expand to 600 theatres by December 19th.  Both of these films have received a healthy amount of Oscar buzz, and their robust ticket sales validate their potential as Academy Award contenders.

Full box office results available here.

Thanksgiving entertainment: Pass the 'Milk,' and prepare for 'Four Christmases'

By Sarah Sluis

This Thanksgiving weekend is stuffed with choices--three new wide releases, last week's Twilight and Bolt, and second-week holdover Quantum of Solace should all post eight-digit returns this weekend. 
Which film will end up as the main course?  Currently, Four Christmases is tracking to be the number one release
this weekend.  With 3,310
screens, the comedy will boast the widest release, an omnipresence conducive to number-one openings.  However, Australia, while only releasing on 2,642 screens,
could do better than the mid-range, $20 million figure expected.  Based on an Oprah show I saw promoting Australia, filled with an unusually (even for Oprah) impassioned audience, I wouldn't be surprised if matriarchs push the family to see Australia over, say, Four Christmases.  The "pull" factor--the ability of one person to influence a movie choice--was a key reason Twilight overwhelmed Bolt last weekend, and Australia has more of a "must-see," epic feel to it than a by-the-book comedy, even if it does star Vince Vaughn and Reese Witherspoon.

Lionsgate's Transporter 3 opens on 2,626 screens, and with the kids out of school, the PG-13 actioner should pass at least $10 million.  Last week's #1 and #3 releases, Twilight and Bolt, will also be films to watch, both for their movement within the top ten, and, well, for their entertainment value.  Disney expects Bolt to make just as much money this week as last week.  Certainly, filmgoers who had Twilight and Bolt on their to-see list (i.e., those Utah families supporting Twilight) will probably turn out for Bolt in its second weekend, but I am also curious to see how well Twilight will be able to maintain its audience.

Biopic Milk releases on 35 screens, expanding on the traditional NY/LA/Toronto release to include San Francisco, where Harvey Milk held office, as well as liberal, gay-friendly cities, including Miami,

Washington D.C., Philadelphia, Boston, Portland, and Seattle.  No showings in (liberal) Austin, Dallas, or Salt Lake City.  Despite the film's obvious appeal to those interested in the civil rights movement, and specifically gay rights, our critic Doris Toumarkine predicted Milk " should attract demanding filmgoers of all persuasions."  With the passage of California's Proposition 8 in the forefront, the film reads as particularly topical.  My question is: Will the targeted release of Milk be able to match the whopping $30k+ per screen of the Slumdog Millionaire release the past two weeks?