Party's still on for 'The Hangover'

By Sarah Sluis

The Hangover has hit the jackpot. Last week it was the surprise #1. The day after Up was declared the winner, higher-than-estimated Sunday grosses pushed The Hangover to the top spot. This week, the Las Vegas comedy dropped a mere 25% to earn $33.4 million. Thanks to high weekday grosses, its cumulative box office has already passed the nine-figure mark: $105,000,000. With a $9,960 per-screen average, plenty of people were turned away from Friday and Saturday night screenings, ensuring high grosses in weeks to come.

The Taking of Pelham 1 2 3 opened lower on the list, taking in $25 million and the #3 spot. It's a solid opening for an actioner that didn't receive much buzz. Lower on the list, the lightly marketed Imagine That came up with just $5.7 million at #6. Family audiences likely chose the much higher regarded Up over the Eddie Murphy film. In its third week, Up soared to $187 million cumulative, bringing in $30.5 million while losing just 30% of its gross.

Of the rest of the films in the top ten, Land of the Lost dropped the most (51%), followed by Drag Me to Hell (45%) and Terminator Salvation (43%). Of the three, Drag Me to Hell was the best reviewed, so it may actually be defying the precipitous drops (of 50-70%) often seen with horror titles.

Dropping between 32-35%, generally considered a better-than-average performance, were Star Trek, Night at the Museum: Battle of the Smithsonian, and Angels & Demons. All these films have crossed the $100 million mark (and Trek the $200 million mark), so their mid-30's drops will help boost the ends of their runs.

On the specialty side, Food, Inc. was the clear winner, earning $21,000 on each of its three screens. Moon followed with $18,000 on eight screens, and Francis Ford Coppola's Tetro came in with $15,000 on two screens. All are stellar performances, and bode well for the films' expansion.

This week, ancient-times comedy Year One will try to perform more like The Hangover and less like Land of the Lost. Sandra Bullock rom-com The Proposal, the first of the genre since Ghosts of Girlfriends Past released on May 1st, also stands to do exceptional business for romance-starved audiences.

Weekend choices: 'Lost,' 'In Ruins,' or 'Hangover'

By Sarah Sluis

This weekend, it's the battle of the comedies. Each targets a slightly different segment of the comedy crowd. Because of its PG-13-rating, $100 million budget, and big-name star Will Ferrell, Land of the Lost is the front-runner to come in behind Up this weekend. However, low-budget, R-rated The Hangover could give it a run for its money, despite its comparatively miniscule budget. Advance ticket sales for The Hangover surged yesterday, bumping its total pre-sales up to 35% of all advance tickets, while Land of the Lost has only 9%.

The Hangover (3,269 theatres) went from production to release in less than a year. It literally started shooting last fall, and a sequel has already been green-lighted: the studio believes in this one. It appears the PR people have anointed Zach Galifianakis as the star to showcase. The NY Times Magazine profiled him and his offbeat humor, and New York Magazine did a Q&A. The movie is incredibly raunchy and a hard R. I loved the way the emphasis wasn't on the characters doing crazy things to make the audience laugh, but them trying to figure out what crazy things they had done during the night they didn't remember. It put less pressure on the audience to laugh, making the film much funnier. The "mystery" framing makes the reveals shockingly funny. There's a real sense of surprise, especially in the reactions, that doesn't feel performed or staged.

Land of the Lost (3,521 theatres) is a comedic adventure in a crazy world. If you come in with no expectations, as I did, you'll probably enjoy it. In a nod to its detractors, it's not ground-breaking comedy, and has unevenly balanced humor. I think the biggest problem people have been having with the movie is that the comedy never grounds itself: it's crazy people in a crazy environment. For me, Danny McBride was able to be the yin to Ferrell's yang and balance his overblown, egotistical character. I expect that teen audiences will enjoy the film, but interest will drop as age, and comedic savviness, increase.

My Life in Ruins (1,164 theatres), which our reviewer Doris Toumarkine called "bland but sweet-as-baklava," also opens in wide release, but on the small side. If Fox Searchlight took care in selecting those theatres, it could open with a high per-screen average, despite the fact that it's not expected to open particularly high. On television, star Nia Vardalos has been pleading with female audiences to "vote with their pocketbook and see the film opening weekend in order to give more female directors and female-oriented films a chance." I find the argument strange, especially since My Big Fat Greek Wedding was known for its slowly increasing rollout--it had its highest weekly gross four months after its release, and never earned more than $14.8 million in one weekend. Even that was over a three-day Labor day holiday. Despite this unconventional pattern, it grossed $241 million. I think that instead of trying to make middle-aged women act like teenage boys who drop their Wiis to catch a film right that Friday night, studios should respect, and market to, an audience that prefers to see films recommended by their friends, and might take weeks to "get around" to seeing a movie. The proof is in the profit.

While the three films releasing this weekend will provide a much-needed comedic relief, the most buoyant title is Up, which is expected to return to the top spot this weekend after glowing reviews. It earned $68 million its opening weekend, and its weekday grosses are above-average, totaling $86 million as of Wednesday.

On the specialty front, Focus Features releases Away We Go in 4 theatres. Even though it's a film many wanted to love, especially with its pedigree writer and director--Dave Eggers wrote and Sam Mendes helmed--it seems to fall flat. The film will expand over the next two weeks, so it will be looking for strong opening weekend per-screen averages.

Next weekend, Speed-on-a-train film, The Taking of Pelham 1 2 3, will open wide, along with family comedy Imagine That, which stars Eddie Murphy. Disney is also sneaking The Proposal, hoping to drum up business for a big opening weekend.

Audiences prefer a 'Night at the Museum' to 'Terminator Salvation'

By Sarah Sluis

In the box office battle this weekend, family-friendly history won out over a bleak future with people-hunting machines. On Friday, Night at the Museum: Battle of the Smithsonian barely edged out Terminator Salvation, earning $15.3 million to T4's $14.9 million, but the matinee crowds on Saturday, Sunday, and Monday chose Night at the Museum, propelling the comedy to a $70 million gross. Despite the fact that the sequel is billed as a family comedy, only half the audience fit the description, with the film proving especially popular among under 25's who needed a break from all the big action films that have dominated the box office. Still, Terminator Salvation's performance, while not that of a break-out hit like Star Trek, was director McG's best opening to date, and has strong prospects overseas. Because the film opened on Thursday, its cumulative is $67 million, only $3 million shy of Night at the Museum's four-day total.

Dance Flick also benefited from being a fresh and comedy-focused offering. The Wayans Brothers' film did best in urban markets, and racked up a pleasing $13.1 million gross over the four-day weekend. At the number five spot, it squeezed in above X-Men Origins: Wolverine, which brought in $10.1 million to bring its cumulative to $165 million, and below Star Trek and Angels & Demons. Star Trek's stats are the most impressive in the top ten: a cumulative of $191 million, a four-day gross of $29.4 million, and only a 31% drop in business. The Spock-Kirk adventure will likely cross the $200 million mark this week. Angels & Demons also held on, dropping 40% to earn an almost-comparable $27.7 million, and also looks likely to cross the $100 million mark this week.

On the specialty side, Summit's The Brothers Bloom continued to do well in limited release, averaging $10,000 on each of its 52 screens. Easy Virtue debuted even better, with a $14,600 average on each of its ten screens. The Girlfriend Experience, despite a blanket of publicity, did more so-so from a box-office perspective, with just a $6,667 average at 30 locations. IFC released the film on-demand a month ago, which some suspect dipped into the theatrical gross.

Next week, another two films will join the top ten. Pixar's Up and horror flick Drag Me to Hell will bump two more films off the top ten list. While I can't think of a more unlikely pair, both have strong advance reviews and are currently tracking at 100% on Rotten Tomatoes.

This Memorial Day, it's Museums vs. Machines

By Sarah Sluis

Terminator Salvation and Night at the Museum: Battle of the Smithsonian will go head to head this weekend, though they're targeting much different demographics. Terminator Salvation earned an estimated $3 million last night from midnight screenings, which bodes well for the action flick. The "highly efficient action showcase," according to our Executive Editor Kevin Lally, lacks "the fun quotient of the Schwarzenegger films," diminishing its crossover appeal. Still, it's virtually guaranteed at least $70 million over the weekend, and will likely go above that number.

Rising up against Terminator, Fox is opening Night at the Museum: Battle of the Smithsonian 500 screens wider than Salvation, in 4,096 theatres. The original Night at the Museum grossed a modest $30 million in its opening weekend, but by the following weekend has upped its cumulative gross to an astounding $115 million, thanks to high weekday grosses during schools' week off between Christmas and New Year's. Even that number proved to be less than half its final gross of $250 million, proof of the long legs of family films. With most children still in school, Night at the Museum: Battle of the Smithsonian's success won't be measured as much by its opening weekend, but its performance over the next few weeks--and throughout the entire summer. However, because there hasn't been a live-action family film since Race to Witch Mountain, pent-up demand will likely drive up box-office grosses even higher. Plus, Night at the Museum has the above-average box office on its side, as well as a couple hundred IMAX screens, which will pad the weekend's grosses.

The Wayans Brothers' Dance Flick opens on 2,450 screens, offering an alternative to Terminator and Night at the Museum. If I were a teen boy, however, I'd choose Terminator over Dance Flick, hands down, despite our critic's tepid endorsement that the film's "not a perfect 10, but the Wayans crew hit their mark more than they miss."

The most high-profile of specialty releases is Steven Soderbergh's The Girlfriend Experience. Sacha Grey, a 21-year-old porn star, plays a high-priced call girl turning tricks as the country slips into a recession. Our reviewer applauds how Soderbergh "convey[s] a view of American culture at once outrageous and non-judgmental," while NY Times' A.O. Scott pondered how the film will sit with audiences once "the turmoil of the last 12 months has receded...and this strange, numb cinematic experience may seem fresh, shocking and poignant rather than merely and depressingly true."

Wes Anderson-style caper film The Brothers Bloom, directed by Rian Johnson, expands this week to 52 theatres after an impressive first week out. Jessica Biel, who stars as the scandalous new wife in an established British family in Easy Virtue, can be seen in New York and Los Angeles.

We'll be back on Tuesday to recap the weekend and crown the winner of this holiday box office.

'Trek' in hot pursuit of 'Angels & Demons'

By Sarah Sluis

Angels & Demons made the usual sequel dip, earning $48 million this weekend, only 62% of The Da Vinci Code's opening weekend. Because the book Angels & Demons wasn't nearly as popular as The Da Vinci Code, which had a Mona Lisa plotline that captivated readers' imaginations, the studio had expected a smaller opening. The popularity of Star Trek, however, likely prevented the opening weekend from crossing the $50 million mark, as did the film's older-skewing audience, which isn't as keen on turning out to see a film the first weekend.

In its second week, Star Trek earned nearly as much as Angels & Demons, pulling in $43 million, a mere 42% drop from last week. Wolverine, by comparison, dropped 69% in its second week, and another 44% this week. Because of Trek's below-average drop for a tentpole film, as well as its strong weekday earnings, it's now just $4 million shy of Wolverine's $151 million total. Its marketing efforts overseas have paid off too, as international audiences have finally taken notice of the franchise. Based on the success of Star Trek, expect Paramount to arc out the story across multiple sequels.

The rest of the top ten, combined, earned only about $20 million, each dropping minimally from the week before. With Night at the Museum 2: Battle of the Smithsonian releasing this Friday, family films like PG-rated Monsters vs. Aliens, which dropped only 8% this week, and G-rated Earth will likely fall to the bottom of the top ten or out altogether.

By contrast, female-oriented films Ghosts of Girlfriends Past and Obsessed, which came in at number four and five this week, earning $6.8 and $4.5 million, won't see any competition for quite some time. It's another month until romantic comedy The Proposal, which has seen strong advance word, will open widely.

This Memorial Day weekend will please adults and families alike. Adventure comedy Night at the Museum 2: Battle of the Smithsonian has already blitzed kids and parents with advertising, and the addition of Amy Adams adds female appeal to a film whose first outing was toplined by males. R-rated Terminator Salvation, which parents will hopefully avoid bringing their kids to, will also attempt to re-launch and re-center a franchise that lost some of its resonance through projects like television show "The Sarah Connor Chronicles." I'll be weighing in on Terminator Salvation's attempt to live up to its iconic catchphrase "I'll be back" later this week, so surf back later in a few days.

'Angels & Demons' to usurp top spot from celestial 'Star Trek'?

By Sarah Sluis

Joining the fray of big releases, Angels & Demons opens this weekend (3,527 theatres), its main competition holdovers Star Trek, in its second week of release, and X-Men Origins: Wolverine. I saw the film this Wednesday and while I'll go along with the opinion that the follow-up is better than The Da Vinci Code, better is a relative term. I think The New York Times' A.O. Scott puts it best, saying director Ron Howard "combines the visual charm of mass-produced postcards with the mental stimulation of an easy Monday crossword puzzle." The intrigue seems paper-thin, and the ciphers are either incredibly easy to decode or require leaps of faith to pursue. Mr. Hanks, for example, simply looks at where statues are pointing and follows their direction, managing to find precision in casual hand gestures. The movie does have a nice twist towards the end, but for the first two-thirds you're actually watching a serial killer movie. Imagine Seven, but set in Rome, and you have the right idea. The Catholic Church, after objecting to the first film, seems to have deemed the second innocuous. Angels & Demons isn't expected to do the big business of Wolverine or Star Trek in its opening weekend, but say a prayer that it will cross $50 million in its opening weekend.

Most of the post-opening weekend Star Trek buzz has centered on one anecdote. Over the past week, I've heard from friends, family, and even eavesdropping, the same comment: "So-and-so [a female who would not be expected to like a sci-fi movie, especially one with such a strong geek following] really liked it." People seem to be interested in the fact that its appeal extends to the anti-fan, which is exactly the kind of word-of-mouth that will sustain a film beyond opening weekend. It's been killing it this week, earning five times as much as Wolverine each day and currently at $99 million.

The specialty market this weekend is packed, once again, though the less-crowded market at Cannes indicates that there will be fewer specialty films in the pipeline. With so many great indie films out there, and only a limited amount of time to see them, many are viewing the slowdown as a good thing. Summit's sneaking its oft-delayed The Brothers Bloom, which stars Adrien Brody and Rachel Weisz, into four theatres, with plans to expand the film over the next two weekends. Big Man Japan, a "goofy sci-fi satire aimed at a narrow audience," will release in NY and LA. Romantic comedy Management, which stars Jennifer Aniston as a corporate executive and Steve Zahn as the motel owner she trysts with, opens in 212 theatres. Jerichow, which our reviewer described as a "modern-day, Teutonic Postman Always Rings Twice," also opens in NY and LA, along with IFC's Summer Hours, a story about three children dividing up their mother's belongings after her death.

Angels & Demons should win the box office, though Star Trek 's spectacular weekday performance could make it a tight race. Wolverine should grab the third spot. From the specialty front, The Brothers Bloom will be looking for a strong per-screen average to set up the caper comedy for its expansion. All the wide releases will want to rack up grosses before next week, Memorial Day, which will see ticket sales siphon away towards R-Rated Terminator Salvation and PG-rated Night at the Museum: Battle of the Smithsonian.

'Monsters vs. Aliens' invades theatres

By Sarah Sluis

Releasing in 4,104 theatres on over 7,000 screens, Monsters vs. Aliens will saturate the market this weekend. The credit crunch, however, will prevent the 3D rollout Paramount had hoped for: Only 2 out of

7 screens will show the movie in 3D.

Theatres and studios only recently agreed on the virtual print fee (a way for theatres and studios to share the costs of conversion to digital and 3D), but the financial crisis has cut off lending, leaving theatres unable to secure financing, and American moviegoers with limited places to see Reese Witherspoon as a 3D Ginormica/Susan Murphy.

Whatever the film's take this weekend (likely: high), much of it will be coming from 3D venues, which charge a roughly 25% premium. Add in the extra $1 to see it in IMAX 3D, and you're looking at 3D ticket prices ranging from $12.50 in Indiana to a monster-sized $18.50 in the Big Apple. Still, audiences have shown that they are more than willing to pay extra for 3D, and the novelty factor makes 3D screens profitable weeks after a film's release. This year's 3D pictures Coraline, My Bloody Valentine, and Jonas Brothers: The 3D Concert Experience earned a disproportionate percentage of their gross from 3D venues, which only increased as the weeks wore on. Presumably, this can be explained by theatres scaling back the 2D screens, as well as audiences specifically seeking out the 3D experience (I assume many 3D venues sell out opening weekend). Billed as the first movie "fully authored" in 3D, and certainly the one with the widest release, many eyes will be looking to see if Monsters vs. Aliens will pop.

Competing with the family crowds, The Haunting in Connecticut will roll out to 2,732 theatres. A

typical teen-oriented horror picture that's tracking well with teen girls (the "new" audience for horror movies). According to our critic John DeFore, the pictures mines "cancer, an abandoned mortuary and necromancy" for its screams.

Finally, 12 Rounds will open at 2,331 locations. The B-actioner, filmed in New Orleans to take advantage of a tax credit, has that Saw/psycho mastermind element to it: an escaped criminal seeking revenge puts a police officer through 12 rounds of challenges in order to rescue his kidnapped wife. The World Wrestling Federation (WWE) produced the flick, so take that as an endorsement, or a warning.

Next week our Executive Editor Kevin Lally will be reporting from Las Vegas on ShoWest, so look for his posts.

'Marley' & 'Bedtime' top two at family-oriented box office

By Sarah Sluis

Compared to the top ten films this weekend in 2008, the January 2-4, 2009 weekend earned $10 million more, $122 million. The extra $10 million came from the performance of top three films, Marley & Me, Bedtime Stories, and The Curious Case of Benjamin Button. While most films fall 50% in their second week, the holiday season softened the drop to the 20%-30% range for all top ten films, as moviegoers extended their cheer by catching a family crowd pleaser or Oscar contender.

Marley & Me continued to dominate at the box office. With the midweek boost of New Year's, the film crossed the $100 million mark, making its cumulative gross $106 million in just two weeks. Slightly behind the lovable Labrador, Adam Sandler's fantasy picture Bedtime Stories earned $20.3 million, with a cumulative of $85 million; the film should cross $100 million within the next two weeks. Benjamin Button,

the highest ranked film of the Awards crowd, made off with $18.4 million while showing on fewer screens, and in more packed theatres.

Below Valkyrie, Yes Man, Seven Pounds, and The Tale of Despereaux, all of which earned in the $7 - $14 million range, Doubt came in at number 10 with $5 million. The Meryl Streep/Philip Seymour Hoffman/Amy Adams picture, now showing on over 1,000 screens, has earned $18.7 million in its four weeks of release.

Of the "for your consideration" films, all of which were shown in just a handful of theatres, Defiance had the highest per-screen average, earning $60k per theatre during its two-screen premiere weekend. Gran Torino (84 screens) earned $33k per screen, followed by Revolutionary Road (38 screens, $25k per screen) and The Wrestler (18 screens, $24k per screen).

With the winter holidays over, the first few weeks of January 2009 will see a deluge of films that, to put it lightly, will benefit from lack of competition (warring brides! mall cops! horror fill in the blanks! dog hotels!). Use this time wisely to brush up on the awards contenders, and you may end up on the winning side of an Oscar pool.

Full studio estimates available here.

'Four Christmases' cheers up box office

By Sarah Sluis

Hollywood had a lot to be thankful for this weekend.  Grossing 4% more than last year's Thanksgiving

weekend, the box office showed no signs of recession.  Holiday picture Four Christmases came in at number one with a $31.6 million gross, but with the top seven films each earning at least $10 million, there was plenty of holiday cheer to spread around.  Bolt actually increased its take 1% from last week, earning $26.5 million for the weekend and proving that families sidetracked by Twilight would come back to see a reliably entertaining Disney picture.

Twilight finished at number three with $26.3 million, dropping 62%.  The spike downward does not necessarily spell a swift demise for the picture.  With winter break coming up, teen fans who saw the film in the opening weekend will have the chance to come back for repeat viewings and spread the word among their less devoted friends.

Australia finished on the low side, earning $14.8 million for the three-day weekend and $20 million for the five-day total.  Despite tracking highly among women over 25, the picture did not skew strongly towards that demographic, attracting equal amounts of men and women, and only a slight (65%) skew in audiences over 25 (i.e. people went with their families).  If this film is truly drawing a Nights of Rodanthe-type crowd, who didn't have the time to see the movie because of their turkey-basting duties, Australia will stick around through the holiday season and cross at least $50 million.  Working against the film, however, is that this film already received a huge push from Oprah a few weeks back, giving it plenty of time to work up anticipation among a crowd that relies heavily on word-of-mouth to make their moviegoing decisions.  Next weekend, which will have an open schedule with plenty of room to pick up audience members, will determine the box-office playability of Baz Luhrman's romantic epic.

Among specialty releases, Milk and Slumdog Millionaire both wowed audiences and the box office.  Milk earned an astounding $38,375 per theatre ($52,627 for the five-day holiday) in its debut, and third-weeker Slumdog's $27,890 per theatre prompted Fox Searchlight to announce that the film will expand to 600 theatres by December 19th.  Both of these films have received a healthy amount of Oscar buzz, and their robust ticket sales validate their potential as Academy Award contenders.

Full box office results available here.

How will Barack rock Hollywood?

By Sarah Sluis

So America has voted, electing Barack Obama as its next president.  What kind of changes can Hollywood expect?

The Risky Business blog looked at the past seven elections and noted that two out of two times a Democrat
was elected, the box office rose, whereas the box office rose three out of five times a Republican was elected, and to a lesser degree.  The evidence looks a little shaky, but the optimism is real: "Dem administrations historically tend to be more favorable to creative expression, which creates a more robust filmmaking and moviegoing climate."  However, let's not forget that a Republican administration let W. be released without a peep, and was a good sport about the Tina Fey/Sarah Palin impressions.

Along with the election, the recession also bodes well for Hollywood.  Martin Grove uses his column to address those who see a single bad weekend as part of a trend.  He notes that fluctuations from week to week and year over year do not signal a downwardly spiralling box office but changes in the quality of films.  A bad week at the box office could simply indicate a lack of films worth seeing.  It makes sense that the weekend with High School Musical 3 would outperform the same weekend from the year before , whose top draw was Saw IV.  Grove feels that audiences will go out and see a movie as long as there is one to see--preferably with an escapist plot (Hello, Beverly Hills Chihuahua). 

One item I haven't seem much journalism or speculation about is substitution: in the face of a lingering recession, will families that normally frequent the cinema opt to rent, and will renters cancel their Netflix subscriptions, or take a recent guest on Oprah's advice and rent DVDs from the library?  People still want to be entertained, so I am curious to see if a drop in the box office will lead to a growth in less expensive forms of movie-watching.  So far, the box office is down .3% from last year, although the Holiday season will change that number.  Conversely, aren't movies inexpensive forms of entertainment themselves, compared to seeing a play or taking the family on other types of excursions?

Nichols to take on Kurosawa's 'High and Low'

By Sarah Sluis

Mike Nichols, director of classic The Graduate and, most recently, Charlie Wilson's War, has signed on
to direct a remake of Akira Kurosawa's High and Low (in Japanese, the double meaning is Heaven and Hell).  Screenwriter David Mamet already wrote the adaptation for Martin Scorsese.  Originally on board to direct, Scorsese will remain on the film as an executive producer.  The premise reminds me of the tough questions asked in the "Would You Rather?" party game/coffee table book, in a good way:  a business executive's son is kidnapped, leading him to divert money from a business endeavor in order to pay the ransom.  Then he finds out the kidnappers took his chauffeur's son, not his own.  As a Kurosawa film--I'm thinking of the many permutations of a crime he explored in Rashomon--I imagine this dilemma is not the central question of the movie but a starting point for additional moral issues to be explored.  In fact, because I cheated and read a synopsis online, I know that the idea of corporate responsibility weighs heavily in the movie (clue to why the film is moving forward now?).  With the country in a recession, I think a film like High and Low, which peripherally explores the business world, drawing unlikely parallels between familial and corporate responsibility, will resonate with audiences.