'Les Miserables' and 'Django Unchained' may turn box office from silent to joyful

The weekend box office was softer than usual. The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey dropped 57% to lead with $36.7 million, enough to give it a first-place finish by a wide margin. The Peter Jackson-directed epic has already earned nearly $150 million, but since the fantasy adventure is not only big-budget, but the first installment in a trilogy, anything other than a smash hit could portend trouble for the remaining two movies.

In second place, Jack Reacher opened to $15.6 million. The Tom Cruise-led action picture resonated with older male moviegoers, and Paramount believes that the demographic base will expand to teenage males as well. Because the holiday season usually gives releases higher multiples of opening weekend, Reacher may end up with over $60 million, at least four times its first weekend.

Judd Apatow-directed comedy about a family's mid-life crisis, This is 40 followed in third with $12.3 million. That was a lot better than Wednesday release The Guilt Trip, which only earned $5.3  million. Both films, which skewed to older females, only received "B-" CinemaScores. Pre-holiday preparations often prevent the adult demographic from showing up in force pre-Christmas, so there are still plenty of interested viewers who may not have had a chance to see the movie yet--that is, if they still plan on seeing either one if they hear mixed reviews from friends.

Monsters Inc. 3D earned a light $5 million over the weekend. Cirque du Soleil: Worlds Away, playing at just noon and 7pm every day, still managed to total $2.1 million. It will up the freqency of showtimes tomorrow, now that it has an "A-" average CinemaScore from its first viewers.

Of all the specialty releases, the one with the most momentum is Zero Dark Thirty. The story of the CIA's hunt for Osama bin Laden averaged $82,000 per screen in five locations, and is picking up incredible buzz and word-of-mouth from those emerging from sold-out screenings. The
heart-wrenching tale of a family that survived a tsunami, The Impossible, opened with a $9,200 per-screen average in fifteen  locations. The modestly successful opening that may pick up speed in weeks to come.

Three more wide releases will open tomorrow, on Christmas Day. A celebration of the "redeeming pleasure of musical storytelling," Les Misérables (2,808 theatres) shows all signs of being the darling of this holiday season. Sung live, instead of lip-synced on set,  the vocals sound real, immediate, and occasionally (and appropriately) ragged. Critic Wendy R. Weinstein couldn't help reflecting on the "progressive political and moral concerns" highlighted from the original text by Victor Hugo. "It’s impossible to leave this movie untroubled by the contemporary parallels," she says, all the more reason the musical may end up being both a box-office and awards-show hit.

Controversy surrounding writer-director Quentin Tarantino's Django Unchained (3,010 theatres) has been light so far, but now the ultra-violent film has its first major dissenter. Spike Lee said he would not be seeing the "disrespectful" movie, which does not honor the memories of
his ancestors who were enslaved. The "spaghetti western/slave vengeance mash-up," as described by critic Chris Barsanti, includes comic bits that "play well throughout," but "at the disadvantage of dulling the edge of the script’s visceral portrayal of the savagery of slavery—a problem that gets more pronounced by the film’s gory climax." Perhaps that's what Lee was intuiting, though he hasn't seen it.

Tomorrow, another family-focused comedy (after The Guilt Trip and This is 40) will enter the mix. Parental Guidance, which centers on the generational clash between touch old-school and new helicopter parenting styles, will open in 3,558 theatres. Some "nice comic points" are scored, especially courtesy of Billy Crystal, according to FJI's David Noh, but an effluence of heartwarming moments and other signs of "commercial family slop" make it less palatable.

Next Monday, we'll evaluate how the Christmas releases fared, and if last Friday's releases benefited from vacation days and positive word-of-mouth.

'Little Fockers,' 'True Grit' lead in lackluster holiday box office

By Sarah Sluis

Moviegoers over the holiday weekend may have turned out for Little Fockers and True Grit, but missing under the Christmas tree was that one big-ticket item: a blockbuster. Without Avatar, box office receipts went down 44% from last year. The year-end box office also showed a lack of originality: seven of the top ten films were adaptations, remakes, or sequels.

Little Fockers, the second sequel to Meet the Parents, grabbed first place with $30.8 million. Including its midweek receipts, the comedy gathered up $45 million in less than a week. Audiences also showed excitement for True Grit, which came in second with $24.8 million and $36 million for the five-day holiday total.

Gulliver's Travels fell short, earning just $6.3 million in two days. The Jack Black riff on the classic novel opened on Christmas Day but failed to draw big audiences. A trio of films rated PG pulled in more audiences, like Tron: Legacy, which finished third with $19.1 million in its second weekend, fourth-place finished The Chronicles of Narnia: The Voyage of the Dawn Treader, which dipped just 11%, and Yogi Bear, which settled into fifth place its second week with $7.8 million.

The holiday weekend also gave specialty movies a chance to shine. The Fighter and Black Swan both finished in the top ten after weeks playing to limited audiences. The Fighter earned $7.6 million in sixth place and Black Swan finished ninth with$6.2 million. The King's Speech rose three spots from last week and landed just outside of the top ten with $4.5 million, though it's still in just 700 theatres.

Focus' Somewhere opened to a $17,000 per-screen average playing on seven screens. The animated feature The Illusionist averaged $12,000 on three screens. Screen Gems' Country Strong had a soft $8,000 per-screen average on two screens. The studio will expand the drama in January but wanted to release it in 2010, perhaps for awards season reasons. According to a new metric on Rotten Tomatoes, the movie has audience approval in the 80% range, compared to just 20% positive among critics, so this movie could bring in crowds with positive word-of-mouth.

This coming week should see higher-than-average weekday receipts as people take time off and students enjoy winter breaks.

'The Fighter' has a knockout performance in a big week for little films

By Sarah Sluis

The holiday season usually brings a mix of delightful popcorn fare and heavy-hitting awards films. This week, at least, was a good week for tiny releases and a thoroughly mediocre one for wide releases.

Paramount's The Fighter debuted to $80,000 per screen in four theatres, the highest per-screen average of the week. With a starry cast list that includes Christian Bale, Mark Wahlberg, Amy Adams, and Melissa Leo, this movie could do extremely well as it moves into wide release next week--the blue-collar subject could expand the audience beyond the rarefied world of Oscar films, and Adams should appeal to female audiences less excited about the boxing subject.

Black Swan has also proved itself to be a film with significant commercial potential. With only 90 theatres showing the ballet drama, the movie managed a sixth-place finish thanks to its $37,000 per-screen average. The Natalie Portman starrer has been called a horror film and drawn comparisons to Showgirls, and its arty melodrama has been a winning formula so far.

The King's Speech, which released a week before Black Swan, has been expanding more deliberately. Its per-screen average of $31,000 was close to Swan's, but only 19 theatres (up from 6) screened the historical, lightly comedic tale of King George's attempt to cure his stutter.

The Tempest had a stormy debut, earning $9,000 per screen on five screens. With Disney selling Miramax, this film appears to have been just as disconnected from marketing and publicity efforts as Prospera's island.

Both the wide releases this week underperformed. The bombastic Chronicles of Narnia: The Voyage of the Dawn Treader came in below expectations, with $24.5 million when a $30 million+ figure was expected. The family action film's broad strokes make it more comprehensible to foreign audiences, however, and the film earned three times more abroad than it did at home.

Angelina Jolie and Johnny Depp's beautiful, empty romantic thriller The Tourist racked up $17 million its opening weekend, a number that was also on the low side. International prospects for this film, set in Venice, are also considered to be rosier than its domestic outlook.

This Friday, Disney revives a cult sci-fi film with Tron: Legacy, CG/live-action mix Yogi Bear will entice family audiences, and James L. Brooks' rom-com How Do You Know will make its debut. Oscar-seeking Rabbit Hole will join the list of specialty releases, and The Fighter plans to fast expand its rollout, moving into a 2,000+ theatre release.

'Tangled' climbs to the top

By Sarah Sluis

As predicted, Disney's Tangled rose from second place to first in its second week. The Rapunzel retelling dipped 55% to $21.5 million, a strong hold given that last weekend had higher-than-average traffic because of post-Thanksgiving crowds. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part I took a steeper dive, falling 65% to $16.7 million. Many Harry Potter fans presumably saw the film shortly after its release, while Tangled should play well to families throughout the holiday season.

The Warrior's Way, a hybrid of the Asian action and Western genres, with some supernatural enemies as a bonus, eked out $3 million its opening weekend, below an estimated $5 million opening. The genre amalgamation follows this summer's sci-fi/comic book/Western flop Jonah Hex, and the (critical, sort of commercial) failure a decade before of another Western hybrid, Wild Wild West. Let it be known: The Western does not take kindly to genre mixing.

Just outside of the top ten, 127 Hours dipped 6% to $1.6 million as it increased the number of theatres showing the film by a third. Love and Other Drugs ($5.7 million) and Burlesque ($6.1 million), which both opened over the Thanksgiving holiday, fell in the 40% range. Thanks to the added holiday receipts, each of these films has each crossed the $20 million mark.

As prestige, awards-seeking movies make their end-of-the-year debuts, per-screen averages of specialty films have skyrocketed. Multiple films posted averages in the tens of thousands. Leading the pack with the highest average of the week, Black Swan opened in 18 locations to a stunning $77,000 per-screen average. Another Oscar frontrunner, The King's Speech, in its second week, made a comfortable slide into a $55,000 per-screen average as it went from four to six theatres. All Good Things, the true-crime drama, tallied up $20,000 per screen at two locations, just ahead of I Love You, Phillip Morris, which averaged $18,000 per screen at six locations.

This Friday, Tangled will have some competition from The Chronicles of Narnia: The Voyage of the Dawn Treader, a former Disney franchise that has been passed to Fox. The Angelina Jolie-Johnny Depp smoldering thriller The Tourist will offer adults some fresh intrigue set in an exotic location, and another Oscar contender, The Fighter, will hit select theatres.

'Marley' & 'Bedtime' top two at family-oriented box office

By Sarah Sluis

Compared to the top ten films this weekend in 2008, the January 2-4, 2009 weekend earned $10 million more, $122 million. The extra $10 million came from the performance of top three films, Marley & Me, Bedtime Stories, and The Curious Case of Benjamin Button. While most films fall 50% in their second week, the holiday season softened the drop to the 20%-30% range for all top ten films, as moviegoers extended their cheer by catching a family crowd pleaser or Oscar contender.

Marley & Me continued to dominate at the box office. With the midweek boost of New Year's, the film crossed the $100 million mark, making its cumulative gross $106 million in just two weeks. Slightly behind the lovable Labrador, Adam Sandler's fantasy picture Bedtime Stories earned $20.3 million, with a cumulative of $85 million; the film should cross $100 million within the next two weeks. Benjamin Button,

the highest ranked film of the Awards crowd, made off with $18.4 million while showing on fewer screens, and in more packed theatres.

Below Valkyrie, Yes Man, Seven Pounds, and The Tale of Despereaux, all of which earned in the $7 - $14 million range, Doubt came in at number 10 with $5 million. The Meryl Streep/Philip Seymour Hoffman/Amy Adams picture, now showing on over 1,000 screens, has earned $18.7 million in its four weeks of release.

Of the "for your consideration" films, all of which were shown in just a handful of theatres, Defiance had the highest per-screen average, earning $60k per theatre during its two-screen premiere weekend. Gran Torino (84 screens) earned $33k per screen, followed by Revolutionary Road (38 screens, $25k per screen) and The Wrestler (18 screens, $24k per screen).

With the winter holidays over, the first few weeks of January 2009 will see a deluge of films that, to put it lightly, will benefit from lack of competition (warring brides! mall cops! horror fill in the blanks! dog hotels!). Use this time wisely to brush up on the awards contenders, and you may end up on the winning side of an Oscar pool.

Full studio estimates available here.

'Marley & Me' charms holiday audiences

By Sarah Sluis

When I expressed my skepticism over Marley & Me (a little too adorable-looking, don't you think?), a friend's mother, who had been hyping the film to me, asked if I was ever a dog owner. If I wasn't, she

said, I just wouldn't understand.

Considering the popularity of pooches among families--and that includes critics--PG-rated Marley & Me proved to be the most enticing option for families over the holiday weekend. The critical applause, included that of our reviewer Doris Toumarkine, who called Marley & Me "[P]erfect holiday entertainment. Families, dog lovers and even demanding breeds of filmgoers will adore it." These thumbs-ups helped pull the film to a $51 million finish, 30% more than the runner up, younger-skewing Bedtime Stories.

It makes sense: Marley & Me appealed to families with teen and adult children (my friend's family falling in that category), while Bedtime Stories targeted the narrower crowd that's still telling bedtime stories to each other. The dog-themed success, coupled with this year's earlier surprise smash, Beverly Hills Chihuahua, must be making studios scratch their heads looking around for another dog title to put into development. However, I chance that eventually there will be a burnout in pet pictures. January's kid-adventurer picture Hotel for Dogs might be the canary-in-a-coal-mine test to see if there's any dog-related viewing fatigue. After all, even playing fetch gets old after awhile.

Other family pleasers Yes Man, Seven Pounds, and The Tale of Despereaux, which finished 1-2-3 last week, moved down to fifth, sixth, and seventh, each dropping a similar amount from last week's open. As audiences see their second- and third-pick movies over the coming weeks, one might break ranks and rise above the others.

For adults, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button earned $39 million over the Christmas holiday, while Valkyrie made off with $30 million. Button's expected awards campaign should keep it in a top position in coming weeks, while Valkyrie dies off (just like the hero's Nazi coup!).

Among awards contenders, Revolutionary Road earned the most per-screen, bringing in a $64,000 per-screen average at each of its six locations for a total of $196,000. Waltz with Bashir, a Christmas day-opener set in Israel with special appeal to Jewish filmgoers, earned $10,240 per-screen across five locations, taking advantage of the informal Christmas day viewing tradition among Jews. Clint Eastwood's Gran Torino expanded to 84 locations, but kept its per-screen average at $29,048, bringing its cumulative total to $4.3 million. Frost/Nixon, Milk, and Slumdog Millionaire earned in the $7,000 per-screen range, a performance mitigated by being in a wider release and over a month old. Awards voters are a finicky bunch, but having your opinions reinforced by a wider audience certainly helps when it comes to statuette success.

Full box-office estimates available here.