DGA nominees hint at who will receive Oscar nods

By Sarah Sluis

Yesterday, the Directors Guild of America announced its five nominees for Best Director. As opposed to the Screen Actors Guild (SAG), Writers Guild (WGA), and Producers Guild (PGA), the DGA awards have a track record of predicting the winner of the Oscar for Best Director. Since the Best Director victor frequently helms the Best Picture, one can reasonably assume that among these five films, we have our Best Picture winner, and probably at least five of the nominees.

DGA nominees:
Woody Allen for Midnight in Paris
David Fincher for The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Michel Hazanavicius for The Artist
Alexander Payne for The Descendants
Martin Scorsese for Hugo

The biggest shut-outs are War Horse and The Help. The DGA has already honored Steven Spielberg three times: for The Color Purple in 1985, Saving Private Ryan in 1998, and with a (preemptive, perhaps) Lifetime Achievement Award in 2000. Maybe they just want some new blood in the running. Spielberg has more Oscar-worthy projects in development, like a biopic of Lincoln, and War Horse was a wee sentimental.

The Help received its biggest support from the SAG, which makes sense. Director Tate Taylor has an acting background himself, meaning he has plenty of connections within the guild. It's only amplified by the large ensemble of actors who appeared in the movie. The Help will definitely receive a Best Picture nod, and certainly a few acting ones as well, but the new director slot went to Hazanavicius instead of him.

When it comes to who actually wins the award, history matters. Both Allen and Scorsese have been honored by the DGA, both for an individual film and with a Lifetime Achievement Award. Will Hugo or Midnight in Paris merit an additional honor? As a newbie, I doubt Hazanavicius will win. I think it comes down to Payne or Fincher, neither of whom has won before. Both have great track records and each of their films exemplify the work the helmers are known for. Payne specializes in the mix between comedy and drama, with sad-sack heroes that somehow endear themselves to the audience. Fincher is probably the most technically brilliant directors out there. None of the dark films he specializes in look like they use extensive special effects, but they do, and YouTube videos like this and this sold me on the kind of detailed planning and creative control Fincher exercises. I'm betting on Payne or Fincher.

On January 28, in less than three weeks, the DGA will announce the winner of their award--and make the outcome of the Oscars a little bit easier to divine.

Globes favor 'Social Network,' BAFTA likes 'King's Speech'

By Sarah Sluis

The Golden Globes have come and gone, and in their wake they've rewarded The Social Network with the highest honor, Best Motion Picture - Drama. But the race is far from over. The British Academy of Film and Television Arts (BAFTA), whose ceremony is held closer to the Academy Awards, announced their nominations, and The King's Speech is the frontrunner with fourteen nominations.

So, as it stands, the Hollywood Foreign Press Association rewarded the Citizen Kane-inspired close-up of the American entrepreneurial spirit, and the BAFTAs are giving a pat on the back to their former king who cured his stutter. Will the Academy Awards be about the movie, or a statement about the kind of film that should win? If it's the latter, I think The Social Network has an excellent chance, given its all-American anti-hero and embrace of the Internet. Or the statement could be more traditional: The Academy is known for being a bit of an Anglophile, and British films win in significant numbers. There's also the fact that The King's Speech has the backing of The Weinstein Co., which has a history of successfully securing both Oscar nods and wins. With The King's Speech the frontrunner for BAFTA and The Social Network the winner of the Golden Globes, I think the Best Picture race has narrowed to those two (with The Fighter the underdog, just like Micky).

Best Director:

The BAFTAs, Golden Globes, and Directors Guild of America matched four out of five nominees for Best Director: Darren Aronofsky (Black Swan), Tom Hooper (The King's Speech), David Fincher (The Social Network) and Christopher Nolan (Inception). Of these four, only Fincher has been previously nominated in the directing category (Benjamin Button). With The Social Network playing so strongly in the awards season, I wouldn't be surprised if Fincher grabs the Best Director prize. Also, his 2007 film Zodiac, which was snubbed entirely during awards season, now turns up on a lot of retrospective "top ten of the decade" lists, and Academy Awards are often given based on the body of work. Aronofsky and Nolan, who have both directed fine films, could also win using this logic, but their lack of nominations makes me think the Academy wouldn't mind having them wait a bit longer. As a counterpoint to that argument, Tom Hooper is a relatively fresh face on the directing scene, whose main credentials are the stunning HBO miniseries "John Adams" and the Brit-focused movie The Damned United (he's also a prolific director on British television). The DGA (Directors Guild of America) will announce their pick for Best Director on Jan. 29, and after that this category will be a near-lock, given the DGA award's correlation with the Oscar for Best Director.

The Academy Awards countdown: 39 days.

DGA nominations foreshadowing Oscar nods?

By Sarah Sluis

Oscar detectives have a new lead: the Directors Guild and the Producers Guild announced their

nominations for Best Picture. They matched, five for five. Both guilds nominated The Dark Knight, Frost/Nixon, Slumdog Millionaire, Milk, and The Curious Case of Benjamin Button for their top films. My editor Kevin Lally, for one, thinks they're right on, and that these films represent the likely Academy selections this year. But will Oscar voters agree?

Those in the Academy still have four days to cast their ballot for the nominees--January 12th. Will they be influenced by the recognition these five films have already received, and add a dark horse (Slumdog Millionaire) to their nominations? Will those reluctant to cast a ballot for a comic book film change their mind?

The DGA is known for correctly predicting the Best Director award, and the Risky Business Blog points out that the demographics, and tastes, of the DGA closely align with that of the Academy, making the rest of their nominations (including Best Picture) harbingers of the Academy's top five. From a budget/release pattern perspective, the five films are preternaturally balanced: two are big-budgeted, wide releases, one (Slumdog) has followed a specialty-to-moderate release pattern, with Milk coming up just behind. Frost/Nixon, with the smallest theatrical release, is holding up last place. Not having seen it myself, its small scope (what better place to watch a film about a TV interview than a TV, right?) makes it seem like the kind of film that will receive heavy DVD rentals after generating some awards publicity.

Aside from The Dark Knight, all five of these films have a historical and/or lifespan focus--perhaps appealing to older voters? While I appreciate grand and historical films as much as the next person, the 70's era settings of Milk and Frost/Nixon relive events many Academy voters were there to experience. This is also why Doubt, set the year after JFK's assassination (1964), might still have a chance.

The Academy will release its nominations in two weeks--until then, we'll continue to speculate.